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View Full Version : Breaking down the top two tiers of CBs.


Direckshun
02-15-2014, 11:55 AM
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46190/349/peshek-cb-metrics-10

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46242/351/peshek-cb-metrics-20

Absolutely fantastic breakdowns of the top corners.

I'll copy these articles to the OP later, when I have more time. For now, enjoy.

Mr_Tomahawk
02-15-2014, 12:07 PM
Dennard in the first.

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:07 PM
Basically, the piece puts up several "red flags" about Gilbert. Dennard and Verrett come out smelling like roses. Dennard especially.

Definitely worth a read.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46190/349/peshek-cb-metrics-10

CB Metrics 1.0
Greg Peshek
Friday, February 07, 2014

Cornerbacks are a bit more tricky than other positions when it comes to their metrics. If you read a previous post on the problems with CB stats (http://secondroundstats.com/?p=541), you’ll understand that the stats are rather ambiguous and can be tricky when taken at face value. I’ll try to be transparent and put them in context, but there are many more confounding factors than say…with a running back.

All numbers are hand charted by me. Because a target or ‘burn’ may be a bit subjective, the numbers won’t always line up with other stat services. However, I’ve used the same criteria for each player which means we can at least compare these stats to each other on an objective basis.

The Trinity of CB Stats

These are what I like to call the trinity of CB stats. Burn rate, which is the number of completions against a defensive back divided by the total number of targets (the number below is adjusted for screens and pass interference). PD Rate which measures how often a DB gets their hands on the ball – a PD rate of 5 would mean the DB defenses the ball once every 5 targets. Finally Snaps/ Targets describes how often the DB is thrown at – the lower the number the more often a DB is targeted.

http://i.imgur.com/BUbEKzP.jpg

- Dennard is the clear winner here when it comes to burn rate. While he was targeted at a higher rate than the rest of the CBs, once every 5.73 snaps – he rarely let the WR catch the ball with a burn rate of 27.45%.

- Racking up maybe the most solid overall resume within the ‘trinity’ of stats, Jason Verrett capitalized heavily on his ball skills. He broke up one out of every 2.75 targets which makes him the best ballhawk of this group, if not the entire CB class.

- For a guy who’s getting little hype, Terrance Mitchell did well across all three stat-lines. It may not seem like it, but that burn rate of 35.29% would be best for third in the entire class among the top 10 corners. The biggest concern is that while he had 5 interceptions on the year, he didn’t have many other passes defensed.

- Roby by far comes out looking the worst. He certainly wasn’t helped by his scheme at Ohio State getting beat on nearly 50% of his targets, but on top of that he had the worst passes defensed rate of the entire group. If one category isn’t strong, you’d at least like to see another strong stat – not so here.

Where the Ball was Thrown?

This represents the total percentage of targets for each DB. Targets may not seem important when you can look at YPA/YPC, but it’s important to know if those are being skewed by a number of short or long throws. Green represents a below-average amount of targets while red represent an above-average number of targets. One isn’t better than the other, that’s just the scale I’m using.

http://i.imgur.com/4KH3Rp0.jpg

- Darqueze Dennard was targeted heavily on both short and deep passes. That certainly contributed to his lower burn percentage, but he still did a great job defending those passes as we’ll see in the next section. He was tested deep by nearly every Big Ten school he played

- Verrett on the other hand was targeted much more in the intermediate 11-20 yard zone where 38% of his total targets came. You’d rather your DB not be giving up those crucial, NFL style throws, so we’ll check in on his defensive prowess there in the next section as well.

- The scheme at Ohio State forced a lot of passes short on Roby where he was either expected to make a play on the ball, or make the tackle. We can see that nearly 55% of his targets came within 10 yards of the LOS.

- Meanwhile, Gilbert’s came in the intermediate zones where he was targeted an above-average amount of times in the 6-20 yard areas.

How Did the DBs Defend Those Throws?

The completion percentage and target charts are essentially linked. It’s doesn’t matter if someone is getting beat 100% of the time if that only represents 5% of their total targets. Green is representative of an above-average completion percentage meaning that the DB defends those zones better than average. Red, of course, means their completion percentage is worse than average.

http://i.imgur.com/mfplSEl.jpg

- Like I mentioned, Dennard while tested deep only allowed an 8.33% completion percentage when targeted 20+ yards. That’s more than half the average for a top-level defensive back showing that his much-debated long speed may not be an issue.

- We can check in on Verrett’s intermediate completion percentage, per the last section here. In the 11-20 yard zone he allowed a 31.58% of passes to be completed, which is above-average. Given how often he was targeted in that intermediate zone and an average completion percentage, that’s definitely something to keep an eye on when watching film.

- Mitchell really succeeds at defending the intermediate and deep zones. His ability to defend those 11-20 yard passes, allowing only a 25% completion percentage is particularly impressive. That may make you feel comfortable about your ability to put him on an island with the WR.

- Justin Gilbert’s inability to defend the intermediate zones combined with his tendency to be targeted there is throwing up all sorts of red flags. Does he have the ability to defend the NFL type routes or is he going to get picked on by better receivers and quarterbacks?

Where Did They Line Up?

This chart represents the technique the defensive back was playing at the start of the play. It’s been simplified down, so press-bail may not represent exact press-bail technique but situations where the DB didn’t get his hands on the WR. This can give you a feel for the experiences of each DB. These don’t tell you about their success playing these, but just the amount they played them.

http://i.imgur.com/v0a0BGd.jpg

- Dennard stands out because the numbers bear out exactly what we’d expect – a physical presence at the line of scrimmage. He lined up in press the most out of the top CBs at 27% of the time and then still lined up in press-bail another 28% of the time.

- Verrett may have the least experience playing a variety of techniques. He was lined up 1-5 yards off the line of scrimmage slightly more than half the time. He still had a decent amount of snaps where he played press – around 16% of the time.

- Where Verrett may be the least rounded here, Terrance Mitchell may have the most varied experience. He still pressed the WR 24.42% of the time, but also played off-coverage another 62% of the time.

- Gilbert and Roby both rarely pressed, only doing so around 11% of the time. However where Gilbert played a variety of off-coverage, Roby lined up 6-10 yards off the LOS 67% of the time. Another place the OSU scheme put him in a position to either make a play or give up a completion on short passes.

That’s the extent of the stats here, there are a few more minor stats that I’ve left out for the sake of brevity. I’ll tweet out those and answer any questions on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:07 PM
Dennard in the first.

God, Gilbert may slip to the 2nd, unless a Cover 2 team falls in love with him.

Mr_Tomahawk
02-15-2014, 12:09 PM
God, Gilbert may slip to the 2nd, unless a Cover 2 team falls in love with him.

Then hope we trade back....2nd rnd does us no good.

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:12 PM
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46242/351/peshek-cb-metrics-20

CB Metrics 2.0
Greg Peshek
Wednesday, February 12, 2014

This group of corners is a bit more of a mixed bag than last week’s (http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46190/349/peshek-cb-metrics-10). Kyle Fuller didn’t play a full season, but his stats in the time he did play were too tantalizing to leave out. On the other hand there’s a lot of data on Lamarcus Joyner, but many have questioned his role at the next level. Is he a corner, a safety, or a Tyrann Mathieu type hybrid. We’ll explore those players and a few others in this piece.

All numbers are hand charted by me. Because a target or ‘burn’ may be a bit subjective, the numbers won’t always line up with other stat services. However, I’ve used the same criteria for each player which means we can at least compare these stats to each other on an objective basis.

The Trinity of CB Stats

These are what I like to call the trinity of CB stats. Burn rate, which is the number of completions against a defensive back divided by the total number of targets (the number below is adjusted for screens and pass interference). PD Rate which measures how often a DB gets their hands on the ball – a PD rate of 5 would mean the DB defenses the ball once every 5 targets. Finally Snaps/ Targets describes how often the DB is thrown at – the lower the number the more often a DB is targeted.

http://i.imgur.com/kZ6BZum.jpg

- Fuller’s metrics here instantly stand out. His pass defense rate, where he gets his hands on one out of every 3 targets, is best for second in the two tiers behind only Jason Verrett. He was targeted more often than every other CB, but his leading burn rate of 24% more than makes up for it. With that stat, he edges out Darqueze Dennard for the least burned CB in this class.

- Similar to Fuller, Victor Hampton has a quality PD rate, but his burn rate is nearly double that of his fellow CB. Beat on 51% of all his targets, he was burnt more than any ‘traditional’ CB in the class.

- Ranking as one of the bigger surprises in this group is Purifoy’s burn rate of 33.3%. That rate beats first tier players such as Terrance Mitchell and Jason Verrett and comes in at second among both tiers. On the opposite side, his pass defense rate is second worst among both groups. Is that a result of quality coverage that didn’t result in QBs throwing many passes into tight coverage?

- For all the hype about Stanley Jean-Baptiste, finding that he was beat on 48.7% of all his targets is pretty disappointing. If you’re looking for positives, you could note that he wasn’t targeted particularly often which could be indicative of QBs only looking to him when the WR had good separation.

- Joyner is the odd man out in these. For a cornerback a burn rate of 55% would be rather appalling. However if you’re comparing him against a safety who lined up in the slot like Kenny Vaccaro from last year, it’d be a quality metric. That metric combined with his low target rate suggest a hybrid role may be more appropriate for him.

Where the Ball was Thrown?

This represents the total percentage of targets for each DB. Targets may not seem important when you can look at YPA/YPC, but it’s important to know if those are being skewed by a number of short or long throws. Green represents a below-average amount of targets while red represent an above-average number of targets. One isn’t better than the other, that’s just the scale I’m using.

http://i.imgur.com/UV0mexM.jpg

- Kyle Fuller’s distribution is pretty normal except for an increased percentage of targets in the intermediate zone of 11-20 yards. This could either be a bad thing if he’s getting beat by NFL type throws or positive if he defended them well.

- In an interesting distribution chart, Victor Hampton was targeted pretty heavily in the 11-20 yard zone, but then was rarely challenged deeper than that. It’s possible that’s a result of quality coverage which we’ll check on in the next section.

- We see nearly an opposite phenomenon with Purifoy where he was only targeted 11% intermediately, but nearly 41% of his targets came deeper than 20 yards. You’d expect quality coverage downfield with the speed Purifoy displays.

- Joyner’s array of targets makes a lot of sense for a slot type corner/ safety. He was challenged heavily on shorter patterns, while seeing deep throws less than average 17% of the time.

How Did the DBs Defend Those Throws?

The completion percentage and target charts are essentially linked. It’s doesn’t matter if someone is getting beat 100% of the time if that only represents 5% of their total targets. Green is representative of an above-average completion percentage meaning that the DB defends those zones better than average. Red, of course, means their completion percentage is worse than average.

http://i.imgur.com/WEWcyUH.jpg

- The 100% completion percentage on short passes for Fuller may look concerning, but it’s likely a product of the coverage at Virginia Tech. Fuller often played 6-10 yards off the LOS, ceding shorter throws to the opponent. More impressive here is that Fuller only gave up 7.14% of targets in the 11-20 yard zone. That means he was challenged 14 times and beat only once on those NFL type throws.

- The fact that Purifoy didn’t let one completion in the 1-5 yard zone is certainly a testament to his short area quickness. Although we have to be a concerned with the fact that he was beat on 45% of his deep targets. How’s his size going to fare against bigger, fast receivers?

- Stanley Jean-Baptiste has one of the strangest charts I’ve seen. He was only beat 33% of the time in the short zone (where he should be getting beat more) and then got beat on 77.8% of the time on deep passes. If I had to guess, his press ability and length helped to defend the short ball, while those same things may have given him trouble keeping up with faster, deep receivers.

- Failing to get beat once deep, Joyner displayed excellent ability against both short and long passes. Potentially more evidence for playing a hybrid role like many have discussed.

Where Did They Line Up?

This chart represents the technique the defensive back was playing at the start of the play. It’s been simplified down, so press-bail may not represent exact press-bail technique but situations where the DB didn’t get his hands on the WR. This can give you a feel for the experiences of each DB. These don’t tell you about their success playing these, but just the amount they played them.

http://i.imgur.com/YT9NQue.jpg

- As mentioned earlier, Fuller played nearly 57% of his snaps 6-10 yards off the line of scrimmage. Although this led to many short completions, his quickness allows him to play off the ball and still make plays.

- Hampton also played of the ball quite a bit, nearly 51% of the time. However, it didn’t work out as well for him as it did Fuller. While playing off, he still allowed below-average completion percentages in the intermediate and deep zones.

- With a good mix of alignments, Purifoy played press 31.4% of the time. He still had experience lining up in off coverage another 50% of the time.

- Jean-Baptiste didn’t line up in press as much as you’d expect for someone with his size, dong so 28.4% of the time. However, the numbers suggest that he wasn’t any more or less proficient at defending when pressing the receiver.

That’s the extent of the stats here, there are a few more minor stats that I’ve left out for the sake of brevity. I’ll tweet out those and answer any questions on Twitter@NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

Mr_Tomahawk
02-15-2014, 12:14 PM
Sign Nate Allen and Anquan Boldin.

Draft Dennard in the 1st.

Pass rusher in the 3rd.

Then BPA.

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:14 PM
Stanley Jean-Baptiste is going to need safety help like a muddafukka.

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:17 PM
Greg Peshek ‏@NU_Gap Feb 11
One more interesting stat from this group...Kyle Fuller was targeted in the 11-20 yard range 14 times and was beat only once

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:18 PM
Pierre Desir not included.

Greg Linton ‏@agentlinton Feb 10
@NU_Gap what tier is desir in? And will you be doing one for him?

Greg Peshek ‏@NU_Gap Feb 10
@agentlinton I definitely want to, unfortunately I don't have video of all of his games like I would need to for an analysis like this

It's a shame. I've seen limited work from Desir, but I've been incredibly impressed. Seems like a pure John Dorsey selection in the 3rd.

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:20 PM
Jean-Baptiste is getting raked.

Greg Peshek ‏@NU_Gap Feb 10
I thought on tape that SJB might have had less targets when in press coverage, but it seems he was equally targeted and beat in off/press

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:21 PM
This guy has tons of stuff on the WRs we could target in the 1st, too. I'll post it later.

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 12:32 PM
Terrance Mitchell may be worth taking a good look at.

jonzie04
02-15-2014, 06:08 PM
wow that is AMAZING stuff, thanks for sharing. I was pretty excited on SJP but those stats scare the shit out of me...

but to me the most impressive, well, interesting, out of the bunch stat wise is joyner. he played 1-5 yards off 73% of the time and his completion rate is of plays passed 20 yards is 0 percent. that is pretty fucking incredible. I know theres been talk of a hybrid role, or a move to safety, but I can't see him getting beat deep too often playing way back where a safety plays.

Direckshun
02-15-2014, 06:27 PM
Joyner's small. That's the knock. 5'8" is almost nickelback-only territory, if it isn't exactly that.

But I agree, that's outstanding stuff.

nbarone007
02-15-2014, 09:55 PM
Great reads. Dennard was fantastic this season. I'd take him top 15. Shutdown corner IMO.

Chiefshrink
02-15-2014, 11:34 PM
Go back in time to 2010 with what you know now. Earl or Eric ?

Direckshun
02-16-2014, 12:27 AM
I think it's a wash -- both players are great.

I'd rather have spent a 2nd rounder on Earl, as the Hawks did, than a 1st rounder on Berry, though.

Saccopoo
02-16-2014, 01:10 AM
I think it's a wash -- both players are great.

I'd rather have spent a 2nd rounder on Earl, as the Hawks did, than a 1st rounder on Berry, though.

Actually, Earl Thomas was the 14th pick in the first round.

The Seahawks had two picks in the first that year - the 6th, which they used to select OT Russ Okung, and the 14th, which they used on Earl Thomas.

Golden Tate was their second rounder that year.

They also got Kam Chancellor in the 5th round.

Plus Walter Thurmond in the 4th.

It was a nice draft for the Seahawks.

At this point, I think that the Seahawks win the 2010 draft versus the Chiefs.

Chiefs took Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis in the 1st and 5th rounds.

The Seahawks took Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in the 1st and 5th rounds.

I think that both Thomas and Chancellor are better than their Kansas City counterparts.

Direckshun
02-16-2014, 01:28 AM
I must have been thinking of Nate Allen and the Eagles...

Saccopoo
02-16-2014, 02:40 AM
I must have been thinking of Nate Allen and the Eagles...

The Thomas vs. Berry debate wasn't as hotly contested as the Okung vs. Berry battle, so Thomas was almost an afterthought at that point. Nobody really seemed all that fired up about Thomas over Berry as an option at the #5 spot.

Add to it that at that time, there were a number of people around here who were very staunch opponents of drafting anyone out of the Big 12 conference, especially Texas.

In actuality, the Seahawks have been the best drafting team in the league since the 2010 draft. They've hit on a remarkably high number of their players by taking the right guys at the right times in the draft.

Chiefshrink
02-16-2014, 11:22 AM
Actually, Earl Thomas was the 14th pick in the first round.

The Seahawks had two picks in the first that year - the 6th, which they used to select OT Russ Okung, and the 14th, which they used on Earl Thomas.

Golden Tate was their second rounder that year.

They also got Kam Chancellor in the 5th round.

Plus Walter Thurmond in the 4th.

It was a nice draft for the Seahawks.

At this point, I think that the Seahawks win the 2010 draft versus the Chiefs.

Chiefs took Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis in the 1st and 5th rounds.

The Seahawks took Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in the 1st and 5th rounds.

I think that both Thomas and Chancellor are better than their Kansas City counterparts.

By far for sure:thumb:

KChiefs1
02-16-2014, 02:24 PM
Actually, Earl Thomas was the 14th pick in the first round.

The Seahawks had two picks in the first that year - the 6th, which they used to select OT Russ Okung, and the 14th, which they used on Earl Thomas.

Golden Tate was their second rounder that year.

They also got Kam Chancellor in the 5th round.

Plus Walter Thurmond in the 4th.

It was a nice draft for the Seahawks.

At this point, I think that the Seahawks win the 2010 draft versus the Chiefs.

Chiefs took Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis in the 1st and 5th rounds.

The Seahawks took Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in the 1st and 5th rounds.

I think that both Thomas and Chancellor are better than their Kansas City counterparts.


If the Chiefs had drafted Thomas & Chancellor there is a chance they are playing in the Super Bowl.

Saccopoo
02-16-2014, 03:43 PM
If the Chiefs had drafted Thomas & Chancellor there is a chance they are playing in the Super Bowl.

You could make that argument seeing as it was those two positions that ended up being compromised in the loss against the Colts.

OldSchool
02-16-2014, 09:42 PM
These numbers just back my thoughts on SJB. He looked pretty bad to me on tape and not worth anything more than a 6-7th round pick, and that's on potential alone. I hope that the team doesn't just look at his messurables and hope that they can coach him up, I don't think he has the instincts to excel at the position and make up for his lack of great quickness/flexibility.

Backs up my thoughts on Verrett as well as Dennard and Gilbert. I thought that Verrett was, by far, the best and quickest at breaking on the ball and playing it, he just lacks the size to be considered a top prospect in today's NFL but has the potential to be as effective as Lardarius Webb/Tim Jennings is. I just wonder if he can keep his speed and quickness while adding 10 more pounds of muscle to his frame. He would be best in off-coverage due to his size though; it would also allow him to take full advantage of his elite quickness, instincts, and ball skills. Dennard would be the best bet to plug and play in our scheme.

O.city
02-16-2014, 09:45 PM
Desir could very well end up being the best cb of this draft