Chiefs/Pats the gamblers are talking

[Nzoner]

The over/under or total points for the game opened at 45.5 and now sitting at 42 according to Scores and Odds. (http://www.scoresandodds.com/grid_20160116.html) That is a dramatic drop on any NFL game.

Pats are now at -5

I seriously don't think I can recall a Tom Brady led Patriots team ever having a matchup with a total this low.


Let's go KC D

[cmh6476]

Chiefs and push

[Nzoner]

Chiefs and push

KC 35 Pats 7,that would be PBJ

[Why Not?]

Not gonna touch the over/under. Love the Chiefs +5

[BigRedChief]

The over/under or total points for the game opened at 45.5 and now sitting at 42 according to Scores and Odds. (http://www.scoresandodds.com/grid_20160116.html) That is a dramatic drop on any NFL game.

Pats are now at -5

I seriously don't think I can recall a Tom Brady led Patriots team ever having a matchup with a total this low.


Let's go KC DHeard on sportscenter that its the lowest line of a Tom Brady playoff game at foxboro ever.

[Undertaker #59]

Heard on sportscenter that its the lowest line of a Tom Brady playoff game at foxboro ever.

I don't think that is correct. Found this on a quick search:

Jan. 18, 2004
Patriots (-4) vs. Colts, 24-14. Patriots win and cover at Gillette Stadium
Total: Under 41

[Nzoner]

Heard on sportscenter that its the lowest line of a Tom Brady playoff game at foxboro ever.

Hadn't heard that although I did catch on NFL Network this morning that the Pats have ended two of the longest winning streaks in the NFL,as I recall it was the Steelers at 15 and Broncos at 11.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Weather and injuries playing a role here.

[dls6501]

Weather and injuries playing a role here.

Which is obvious to everyone but the homers.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Which is obvious to everyone but the homers.

Our defense plays a part in that as well, no doubt.

Probably our offense too.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

I don't think that is correct. Found this on a quick search:

Jan. 18, 2004
Patriots (-4) vs. Colts, 24-14. Patriots win and cover at Gillette Stadium
Total: Under 41

Welcome Pats fan . Gonna be a good game !

[KChiefs1]

The over/under or total points for the game opened at 45.5 and now sitting at 42 according to Scores and Odds. (http://www.scoresandodds.com/grid_20160116.html) That is a dramatic drop on any NFL game.

Pats are now at -5

I seriously don't think I can recall a Tom Brady led Patriots team ever having a matchup with a total this low.


Let's go KC D


Chiefs +5 looks like easy $$$$.

[Ming the Merciless]

yah the over under is scary

but i think im gonna lay 50 on the chiefs, and give back the 5 points and then take the over as a parlay.

ill see how much that pans out to but probably 50 to win 400 or something

[Earthling]

yah the over under is scary

but i think im gonna lay 50 on the chiefs, and give back the 5 points and then take the over as a parlay.

ill see how much that pans out to but probably 50 to win 400 or something

Yep

[saphojunkie]

yah the over under is scary

but i think im gonna lay 50 on the chiefs, and give back the 5 points and then take the over as a parlay.

ill see how much that pans out to but probably 50 to win 400 or something

What does "give back the points" mean? I have never really been a sports gambler.

[Earthling]

What does "give back the points" mean? I have never really been a sports gambler.

Taking the Chiefs straight up without the +5 that you would otherwise get..

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

yah the over under is scary

but i think im gonna lay 50 on the chiefs, and give back the 5 points and then take the over as a parlay.

ill see how much that pans out to but probably 50 to win 400 or something

So, how does a person go about placing a bet . Other than traveling to Vegas ?

[BossChief]

Our defense plays a part in that as well, no doubt.

Probably our offense too.

That's a significant drop.

Maybe Edelman can't go...?

[BWillie]

Pats 24, Chiefs 21.

My prediction. If the Chiefs win this game though, they are going to Super Bowl.

Big Ben has torn ligaments in shoulder. If we play Pitt we get home game, if we play Denver I like the way we match up with them especially with Peyton Manning throwing ducks.

[Saul Good]

So, how does a person go about placing a bet . Other than traveling to Vegas ?

Send a Paypal to hootie, and he'll take care of it for you.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

That's a significant drop.

Maybe Edelman can't go...?

Pretty sure I read somewhere he's a full on go for this weekend.

[Why Not?]

So, how does a person go about placing a bet . Other than traveling to Vegas ?

Google:

Bovada

5 dimes

[Why Not?]

If I was going to touch the O/U I would tease it down to 36. 20-17 is still a winner

[Ming the Merciless]

So, how does a person go about placing a bet . Other than traveling to Vegas ?

Im using a bookie from argentina, ive used them for literally years (offshore)

www.sportsbetting.ag (http://www.sportsbetting.ag)

Theyre really good...they used to have WAY more options on player prop parlay cards and crazy stuff, but for just straight up betting on any sport they are decent. Ive had some kind of balance for like 5+ years (often like 100$ or more) and theyve never ****ed with my cash at all. Its always there when i come back (I rarely place non football bets) *edit also I have never had a problem getting them to pay me. Last couple years ive just left it in there, i only pay out when i hit a big one.

[Nzoner]

So, how does a person go about placing a bet . Other than traveling to Vegas ?

I simply make a phone call,you can also go to a site like this (https://www.bovada.lv/) I know some people who bet thru them and have never had a problem collecting,and they now have Chiefs +5 1/2

[Ming the Merciless]

What does "give back the points" mean? I have never really been a sports gambler.


theres ATS (which is against the spread) so like for this game you will see

Chiefs +5
Patriots

or

Patriots - 5
Chiefs


That means basically thats the math to make the bet more or less 50/50 (and even money bet), So in this case if you just want to say bet 100$ and win 100$ if youre right you can take the underdog and ADD points to their score or take the favorite and subtract points. (***this isnt exact, it is simplified...and close enough for a brief discussion)

SO in this case if you wanted to bet the chiefs (+5) you would place your +5 bet and at the end of the game, add 5 points to the chiefs score. If they win with that extra 5 points, you win! If they still lose, even with that extra 5, you lose....If its a tie...most places call that a 'push' and you simply get a refund on your bet.

So lets say you bet this game like that..(chiefs +5) and thie chiefs lose the game 17-20...well you would add 5, so YOUR score for the purposes of YOUR bet would be 22-20, in favor of the Chiefs so you would win your bet...You would win $100 plus your $100 back ($200 total).

Now...

To your question:

if you give up the right to those 5 points, you would get more than 100$. (because your bet is more risky)

For example:

Right now, if you bet the chiefs straight up to win, and do not take the 5 points you would win about $200. So that hundred could make you an exra hundred...(100$ bet, wins $200 - plus you get your $100 bet back = $300 total) but the chiefs would need to win the game outright, adding 0 points


Sorry for the long explanation you probably knew alot of that but basically that was for anyone lurking who might be wondering about it.

[BossChief]

Just for funzies I'm thinking about placing a bet or 2 on NE.

So I have something to celebrate after the game, no matter what.

[Nzoner]

Just for funzies I'm thinking about placing a bet or 2 on NE.

So I have something to celebrate after the game, no matter what.

You better bet moneyline then

[Ming the Merciless]

You better bet moneyline then

the money line is kind of ugly on the pats

50$ risk to win 25$


I dunno

I wouldnt ever bet against the chiefs in a game, but even if I did....I would shy away from that type of bet I think...

Maybe unless you just KNEW the pats were gonna win and wanted to put like 500$ on it to win $250 or something

I like the flipped around odds better

Chiefs if you bet $100 you win $200 (double instead of half)

[Ming the Merciless]

to me 'funzies' would be making a bunch of parlay cards that are like 4-6 teamers each, and putting like 20 bucks each on them and maybe get like 10 of them so even if one hits you break even and if 2+ hit you win big...

I dunno..

each to their own on 'funzies' i guess

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Im using a bookie from argentina, ive used them for literally years (offshore)

www.sportsbetting.ag (http://www.sportsbetting.ag)

Theyre really good...they used to have WAY more options on player prop parlay cards and crazy stuff, but for just straight up betting on any sport they are decent. Ive had some kind of balance for like 5+ years (often like 100$ or more) and theyve never ****ed with my cash at all. Its always there when i come back (I rarely place non football bets) *edit also I have never had a problem getting them to pay me. Last couple years ive just left it in there, i only pay out when i hit a big one.

:hmmm: I may give this a try. What does the over/under mean ?You can bet on how many points are scored between the 2 teams ?

[RippedmyFlesh]

Just for funzies I'm thinking about placing a bet or 2 on NE.

So I have something to celebrate after the game, no matter what.

I don't know how you guys do it. I just can't be objective when it comes to the chiefs. Not so much homerism as it is emotional involvement. I say that because I am not blind to chiefs short comings although this year there are very few. I don't even play fantasy football for that reason. During a fantasy draft there would prob be a time when a denver player would be the most logical pick but I can not bring myself to root for any denver player unless he was on his death bed. Then maybe.

[Nzoner]

the money line is kind of ugly on the pats

50$ risk to win 25$


I dunno

I wouldnt ever bet against the chiefs in a game, but even if I did....I would shy away from that type of bet I think...

Maybe unless you just KNEW the pats were gonna win and wanted to put like 500$ on it to win $250 or something

I like the flipped around odds better

Chiefs if you bet $100 you win $200 (double instead of half)

Yeah but he's trying to feel good either way which leaves the Pats ML,his luck he bets the Pats spread and they win by 3 and he gets double the pain.

[Nzoner]

:hmmm: I may give this a try. What does the over/under mean ?You can bet on how many points are scored between the 2 teams ?

Correct and you hope for a number with a 1/2 in it which will guarantee a winner if it stays on 42 and the final score is say 35-7 you get what's called a push and all bets are off unless you have it parlayed with another bet.

[Chiefshrink]

That's a significant drop.

Maybe Edelman can't go...?

Nah, Edelmann will play but it's our D that is on fire and their O-line is that beat up.

[RippedmyFlesh]

Yeah but he's trying to feel good either way which leaves the Pats ML,his luck he bets the Pats spread and they win by 3 and he gets double the pain.

ROFL That would happen to me only it would be by 4 with ne at the chiefs 1 yard line as time expired.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Correct and you hope for a number with a 1/2 in it which will guarantee a winner if it stays on 42 and the final score is say 35-7 you get what's called a push and all bets are off unless you have it parlayed with another bet.

Ahh. well then I'd put 10 G on the over because the Chiefs are gonna roll this game.

38-17 Chiefs

[Nzoner]

I don't know how you guys do it. I just can't be objective when it comes to the chiefs. Not so much homerism as it is emotional involvement. I say that because I am not blind to chiefs short comings although this year there are very few. I don't even play fantasy football for that reason. During a fantasy draft there would prob be a time when a denver player would be the most logical pick but I can not bring myself to root for any denver player unless he was on his death bed. Then maybe.

I play FF for money and have done just fine not drafting Raiders or Broncos.

[Ming the Merciless]

:hmmm: I may give this a try. What does the over/under mean ?You can bet on how many points are scored between the 2 teams ?

exactly

theres 2 ways to do this (actually a lot more, so lets say 2 main ways)

1) you can do a completely separate bet, so for our purposes lets say Chiefs pats is 42.5: you could just do a straight up bet like $50 bucks on the under, if you thought the D's were gonna shine etc....So as long as the total score was 42 or less, you win 50$ plus your 50$ back

2) you can 'parlay' it with a bet on the game (or any game!) and its a way to make the bet much more risky but also pay off more. For example:

You bet the chiefs , and take 5 points and put 100$ on it....If you win, you get 100$ plus your bet back = $200.

If you parlay it with a o/u it actually shoots the risk up about 3 times.....

so like if you bet 100$ you would win about $300 plus your bet back.....so its extremely risky, but fun....




Keep in mind like the regular season when there can be a shitload of games so you can bet one game against the spread and do a o/u from a totally unrelated game and do multiple items on a single parlay card...so like this week you could:

chiefs to win +5
chiefs under
denver to win
and throw un the o/u from the Green Bay game or something LOL


so you can make a 4-5 item parlay card and each item you stack on makes the odds crazier. then u can just throw a small amount on it like $20.00 but if you win the whole card its like 200$ or something!

Hahah thats 'funzies' to me, i love makling a bunch of crazy parlay cards and hoping one of them wins..but honestly its rare that any cards win once you add more than 3-4 items

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Thanks for all that. I may give it a try. I was dumb enough to spend $50 on powerball last drawing and $50 for the coming draw so this sounds like more fun.

[Toby Waller]

put this at the head of all related pre game threads

http://www.wcvb.com/image/view/-/37358150/highRes/1/-/maxh/480/maxw/640/-/tsnlbi/-/Alex-Smith-Tom-Brady-combo-jpg.jpg

[Nzoner]

Thanks for all that. I may give it a try. I was dumb enough to spend $50 on powerball last drawing and $50 for the coming draw so this sounds like more fun.

Just an FYI if you do a parlay(multiple games,bets) the general payout is

2 teamer 2.5 to 1

3 teamer 5 to 1

4 teamer 10 to 1

5 teamer 20 to 1

[Why Not?]

Most 3 teamers are 6 to 1 at least on Bovada and at most Vegas sports books. Parlays are a lot of fun, but are much harder to hit on than you might think. You can also do $ line(just pick a winner)parlays, but you have to bet a bigger amount to win decent $

[TLO]

I wonder if this public money or if the big time gamblers are betting on the Pats?

[OnTheWarpath15]

That's a significant drop.

Maybe Edelman can't go...?

When the line first came out, there wasn't supposed to be any nasty weather IIRC.

Now they are talking about 30 mph winds and an inch of rain, with possible snow coming late in the game.

[Ming the Merciless]

I wonder if this public money or if the big time gamblers are betting on the Pats?

IIRC the spread started at NE-4.5 and then moved to 5 and now some have it at 5.5.

I'm pretty sure the line shifting that way indicates more money flowing towards the Pats...

There are websites to show the answer but I'm on a shitty phone plus I'm lazy...

So my guess based on the above us that up until the line shifted to 5.5 more money was flowing the Pats way...but perhaps it's evened out...

[New World Order]

IIRC the spread started at NE-4.5 and then moved to 5 and now some have it at 5.5.

I'm pretty sure the line shifting that way indicates more money flowing towards the Pats...

There are websites to show the answer but I'm on a shitty phone plus I'm lazy...

So my guess based on the above us that up until the line shifted to 5.5 more money was flowing the Pats way...but perhaps it's evened out...

Some have moved to 5.5 while others (5dimes) are at 4.5

Pretty crazy.

[DJ's left nut]

IIRC the spread started at NE-4.5 and then moved to 5 and now some have it at 5.5.

I'm pretty sure the line shifting that way indicates more money flowing towards the Pats...

There are websites to show the answer but I'm on a shitty phone plus I'm lazy...

So my guess based on the above us that up until the line shifted to 5.5 more money was flowing the Pats way...but perhaps it's evened out...

The sharps usually come in early and if the lines are still wonky, some come in late.

So if it's still shifting here in the middle it would seem that it's more public betting that's moving the line at this point. The quick bump worries me, though. It means those guys saw something that had a lot of money flowing NEs way. I'm hopeful it was just the early news on Maclin's knee and that as the week progresses some of the savvy betters that sat back a bit put their bets down.

Following the money in Vegas is usually a pretty good way to pick 'em. The smart gamblers know their shit.

[Earthling]

I personally would take the under instead of the over. There is bad weather supposed to be involved and also the conservative nature of the Chiefs on offense if they are leading in the game. Ultimately who knows?

[KCCHIEFS27]

OR, and stick with me here. The sharps DO NOT like a Kansas City offense without Maclin to put up very many points. And the sharps come in early if the line is favorable. It'll become more evident towards the end of the week where the sharps are putting their money.

[SAGA45]

Im new to betting as well. If a ranking system was %70.8 accurate predicting straight up winners in the last three weeks, would an experienced bettor take notice?

[KCCHIEFS27]

Im new to betting as well. If a ranking system was %70.8 accurate predicting straight up winners in the last three weeks, would an experienced bettor take notice?

Depends on who that ranking system took. My guess is a majority of those picks were made towards the favorite. Is there a link to this system? And I'm not trying to steal your insider information. But there are some questions to be answered about this "system".

[SAGA45]

Depends on who that ranking system took. My guess is a majority of those picks were made towards the favorite. Is there a link to this system? And I'm not trying to steal your insider information. But there are some questions to be answered about this "system".

It's my system...football metric. I created it. - http://besreport.com/

70.8% in the final three weeks of the season

59.4% overall (Week 3-17, first issue of my rankings was in Week 2)

Here's the Week 17 Rankings - http://besreport.com/week-17-bes-rankings-final-issue-of-2015/

75.0% in the playoffs thus far. Was 70% in the playoffs including the Super Bowl pick last year.

[Earthling]

It's my system...football metric. I created it. - http://besreport.com/

70.8% in the final three weeks of the season

59.4% overall (Week 3-17, first issue of my rankings was in Week 2)

Here's the Week 17 Rankings - http://besreport.com/week-17-bes-rankings-final-issue-of-2015/

75.0% in the playoffs thus far. Was 70% in the playoffs including the Super Bowl pick last year.


What percentage of the time is the underdog picked, in your experience?

[Ming the Merciless]

Im new to betting as well. If a ranking system was %70.8 accurate predicting straight up winners in the last three weeks, would an experienced bettor take notice?

I am on my phone but you would have to correct for the spread to answer that question 100%


I Believe that the very best 'pickers' get around 69-70%(not ats) so if your stats held up long term, that would put your system up there...

If you had a way to 'beat' the spread, then gamblers would pay you for your picks. You would make a lot of cash. A lot of people pay for picks.

[SAGA45]

What percentage of the time is the underdog picked, in your experience?

Not sure as I haven't specifically tracked that sort of thing over the course of the season. Would have to go back and gather that info.

[KCCHIEFS27]

I am on my phone but you would have to correct for the spread to answer that question 100%


I Believe that the very best 'pickers' get around 69-70% so if your stats held up long term, that would put your system up there...

If you had a way to 'beat' the spread, then gamblers would pay you for your picks. You would make a lot of cash. A lot of people pay for picks.

His system doesn't take the spread into account. It's picks based purely on straight up winners. That's the problem, in my opinion.

[Ming the Merciless]

His system doesn't take the spread into account. It's picks based purely on straight up winners. That's the problem, in my opinion.

That's why I said it needed to be corrected ats (1st sentence in my response)

[KCCHIEFS27]

That's why I said it needed to be corrected ats (1st sentence in my response)

Haha, you sure did. Nevermind then. We agree. Bettors are not looking for straight up winners. Bettors want to make nearly even money on what they put down, so it would certainly have to be adjusted for winners against the spread.

[SAGA45]

I am on my phone but you would have to correct for the spread to answer that question 100%


I Believe that the very best 'pickers' get around 69-70%(not ats) so if your stats held up long term, that would put your system up there...

If you had a way to 'beat' the spread, then gamblers would pay you for your picks. You would make a lot of cash. A lot of people pay for picks.

Im developing another system separate from the rankings system but crunches the same data in order to predict a winner. It's my offseason project. After testing and whatnot, it should be ready to go next season. But once completed, I could get the winners from the system each week and compare with what the lines are saying and then track that data as the season progresses.

[Earthling]

You should do some research for this years regular season games and assume a $20 bet on every single game. I would be very interested to see what the final tally on money would be.

[Ming the Merciless]

Agree 100%.

Now....to complicate matters, if you had a bunch of data that the BES was like 65% accurate on games where the spread was say 2 or less ( in between 2 and -2) or even more clear of an example...in games that are 'picks' it could be determined that the BES was more accurate at picking THOSE games...you could still be pretty sure someone would pay for those picks and you could make a truckload of cash, even on a couple games a week. Especially where BES picks a 1 or 2 point dog etc

[SAGA45]

You should do some research for this years regular season games and assume a $20 bet on every single game. I would be very interested to see what the final tally on money would be.

Im afraid I'd piss myself off and have to be put on suicide watch. haha

[Ming the Merciless]

You should do some research for this years regular season games and assume a $20 bet on every single game. I would be very interested to see what the final tally on money would be.

Or go back and assume 1000$ bet on every game that was a 'pick' or 1 point spread...ignore any game with a spread over1...that way you ignore a lot of useless data

[Earthling]

Or go back and assume 1000$ bet on every game that was a 'pick' or 1 point spread...ignore any game with a spread over1...that way you ignore a lot of useless data

Good idea.

[Why Not?]

You should do some research for this years regular season games and assume a $20 bet on every single game. I would be very interested to see what the final tally on money would be.

With the exception of week 1 and week 14, I wagered $10 on every NFL game this season. With or against the spread, not just winners. At the end of week 17 I was down $20. That's a lot of fun for $20.

[Ming the Merciless]

With the exception of week 1 and week 14, I wagered $10 on every NFL game this season. With or against the spread, not just winners. At the end of week 17 I was down $20. That's a lot of fun for $20.

That's really really cool man.

We should do a weekly thread next season....and work together

[007]

With the exception of week 1 and week 14, I wagered $10 on every NFL game this season. With or against the spread, not just winners. At the end of week 17 I was down $20. That's a lot of fun for $20.
So it's fun to lose [emoji1]

[Earthling]

With the exception of week 1 and week 14, I wagered $10 on every NFL game this season. With or against the spread, not just winners. At the end of week 17 I was down $20. That's a lot of fun for $20.

Excellent

[Psyko Tek]

Send a Paypal to hootie, and he'll take care of it for you.

and PM Bob Dole

they will get you hooked up

[Why Not?]

That's really really cool man.

We should do a weekly thread next season....and work together

Totally in

[Why Not?]

So it's fun to lose [emoji1]

Oh I've had fun losing a lot more than that in the past🤑

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Oh I've had fun losing a lot more than that in the past��

Losing 1000's must be a frigging blast

[Why Not?]

Losing 1000's must be a frigging blast

We all have our different definitions of fun. For some it's gambling, for others it's jerking off pigs. Although, it is worth mentioning I've never lost thousands on anything. Hundreds? Well, that's a different story.

[Nzoner]

We all have our different definitions of fun. For some it's gambling, for others it's jerking off pigs. Although, it is worth mentioning I've never lost thousands on anything. Hundreds? Well, that's a different story.

:thumb:

Plus the perks I get from Harrah's Casinos keep me coming back.

[Chiefnj2]

Looks like the wet weather will be ending earlier on Saturday. Might be some more points scored than originally thought.

[Rausch]

So it's fun to lose [emoji1]

And to pretend!

[Nzoner]

Looks like the wet weather will be ending earlier on Saturday. Might be some more points scored than originally thought.

And yet the over/under is now 41.5

[Why Not?]

:thumb:

Plus the perks I get from Harrah's Casinos keep me coming back.

Oh yeah

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Send a Paypal to hootie, and he'll take care of it for you.


ROFL

[Nzoner]

Pats -5

Over/Under 43.5

Damn that over/under is going to affect a lot of bettors,I'm sure some guys have bet both sides and hoping for a tweener.

[ClevelandBronco]

I don't see the Patriots scoring more than 38, so I recommend betting the under.