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View Full Version : Zogby: Kerry still leads in the electoral college... Bush improving


jAZ
09-08-2004, 01:17 AM
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=860

It’s almost as if there were no conventions at all. The latest numbers in the Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll shows the race almost exactly where it was in late July before the Democrats gathered in Boston.

But the dynamics are different, as President Bush continues a slow advance from lows earlier this year that included nagging problems: a nation facing serious trouble in Iraq and an economy making what critics called a “jobless recovery.’’ All the while, he took a pounding over issues foreign and domestic by 10 Democratic presidential candidates.

Now, eight of those ten Democrats have packed it in and headed for home, leaving the last two – John Kerry and John Edwards – to form the party’s presidential ticket.

The poll shows Mr. Bush establishing a strong lead in Ohio, where history indicates he absolutely must win to keep his job, and in Tennessee, a state where he led by large volumes in earlier polls but where he lost that advantage before regaining it this past week.

Mr. Kerry leads in states he needs to win to grab the top prize, but his leads are smaller than they had been in earlier polls. This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush. The votes of three states – Florida, Missouri, and Nevada – are held out of the count because the candidates are within one percentage point of each other and so are too close to call. Even if Mr. Bush were to be awarded all three states, he still would lose narrowly to Mr. Kerry.

Sept. 7th
Kerry: 264
Bush: 231

The results in this chart reflect the polling outcomes in 17 of the 20 states in the poll collection, and do not include the Electoral College votes from Florida, Missouri, or Nevada, which are toss-ups. It does include the results from some states where the race is within the margin of error, but where a candidate has a lead of one full percentage point.

Ugly Duck
09-08-2004, 01:19 AM
interesting.... Republican pollster Rasmussen shows a dead heat as well"

Tuesday September 07, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 47% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

jAZ
09-08-2004, 01:32 AM
I'm starting to suspect that Time released a bogus 11 point lead poll to make headlines and sell magazines. And Newsweek didn't want to be the weekly magazine not having headline grabbing headlines to report, so they used the same faulty methodology.

Saggysack
09-08-2004, 01:33 AM
Geez, I thought the bounce would have lasted atleast a month. Instead it lasted less than a week. Glad I was wrong.

Michael Michigan
09-08-2004, 02:24 AM
Damn Zogby is stupid. Is he a U of A grad?



"This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush."

The votes of three states – Florida, Missouri, and Nevada – are held out of the count because the candidates are within one percentage point of each other and so are too close to call. Even if Mr. Bush were to be awarded all three states, he still would lose narrowly to Mr. Kerry."

Huh? If you add the electoral votes of these three states (27+11+5=43) to Bush’s total as he states, it would seem to me that simple mathematics would show Bush with 274 electoral votes to Kerry’s 264 electoral votes.

What a dumb ass--274 beats 264 every time, meaning Bush would have a majority and therefore be the winner.

Zogby is desperately trying to sell Kerry and sell this moronic internet poll so much apparently Kerry would win even without reaching 270 electoral votes.

Also--Bush could win MO and FLA and it would be 269-269 even in the Zogby "Internet Poll"

Guess who wins then?

Zogby is a dope, he should have stuck with traditional polls, he was very accurate with those.

His "Interactive polls" are an absolute joke and he can't add. This is why I refused from the start to put them into my EC projections.


Plus--as a pollster addition is kind of important.

BigOlChiefsfan
09-08-2004, 07:00 AM
Another one y'all may want to watch over the next 55 days or so:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Matt Helm
09-08-2004, 07:25 AM
It seems as if jaz has consulted with duhnese and is now smoking crack!

RINGLEADER
09-08-2004, 09:11 AM
The Zogby interactive poll is a joke.

jAZ
09-08-2004, 12:04 PM
"This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush."
FYI.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=861

Released: September 08, 2004
Democrat John Kerry Clings To A Narrow Labor Day Lead, New Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll Reveals - CORRECTION

In the Battleground news release, this sentence was included:

"Even if Mr. Bush were to be awarded all three states, he still would lose narrowly to Mr. Kerry."

That is not the case. If the three states (Florida, Missouri, and Nevada) were added, Mr. Bush would have 274 Electoral votes to Mr. Kerry's 264 Electoral votes.

We apologize for this error.

Lurch
07-05-2006, 02:06 PM
LOL