jAZ
09-08-2004, 01:17 AM
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=860
It’s almost as if there were no conventions at all. The latest numbers in the Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll shows the race almost exactly where it was in late July before the Democrats gathered in Boston.
But the dynamics are different, as President Bush continues a slow advance from lows earlier this year that included nagging problems: a nation facing serious trouble in Iraq and an economy making what critics called a “jobless recovery.’’ All the while, he took a pounding over issues foreign and domestic by 10 Democratic presidential candidates.
Now, eight of those ten Democrats have packed it in and headed for home, leaving the last two – John Kerry and John Edwards – to form the party’s presidential ticket.
The poll shows Mr. Bush establishing a strong lead in Ohio, where history indicates he absolutely must win to keep his job, and in Tennessee, a state where he led by large volumes in earlier polls but where he lost that advantage before regaining it this past week.
Mr. Kerry leads in states he needs to win to grab the top prize, but his leads are smaller than they had been in earlier polls. This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush. The votes of three states – Florida, Missouri, and Nevada – are held out of the count because the candidates are within one percentage point of each other and so are too close to call. Even if Mr. Bush were to be awarded all three states, he still would lose narrowly to Mr. Kerry.
Sept. 7th
Kerry: 264
Bush: 231
The results in this chart reflect the polling outcomes in 17 of the 20 states in the poll collection, and do not include the Electoral College votes from Florida, Missouri, or Nevada, which are toss-ups. It does include the results from some states where the race is within the margin of error, but where a candidate has a lead of one full percentage point.
It’s almost as if there were no conventions at all. The latest numbers in the Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll shows the race almost exactly where it was in late July before the Democrats gathered in Boston.
But the dynamics are different, as President Bush continues a slow advance from lows earlier this year that included nagging problems: a nation facing serious trouble in Iraq and an economy making what critics called a “jobless recovery.’’ All the while, he took a pounding over issues foreign and domestic by 10 Democratic presidential candidates.
Now, eight of those ten Democrats have packed it in and headed for home, leaving the last two – John Kerry and John Edwards – to form the party’s presidential ticket.
The poll shows Mr. Bush establishing a strong lead in Ohio, where history indicates he absolutely must win to keep his job, and in Tennessee, a state where he led by large volumes in earlier polls but where he lost that advantage before regaining it this past week.
Mr. Kerry leads in states he needs to win to grab the top prize, but his leads are smaller than they had been in earlier polls. This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush. The votes of three states – Florida, Missouri, and Nevada – are held out of the count because the candidates are within one percentage point of each other and so are too close to call. Even if Mr. Bush were to be awarded all three states, he still would lose narrowly to Mr. Kerry.
Sept. 7th
Kerry: 264
Bush: 231
The results in this chart reflect the polling outcomes in 17 of the 20 states in the poll collection, and do not include the Electoral College votes from Florida, Missouri, or Nevada, which are toss-ups. It does include the results from some states where the race is within the margin of error, but where a candidate has a lead of one full percentage point.