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RINGLEADER
09-08-2004, 11:16 AM
Latest Updates: New poll out today shows that Bush has once again reclaimed the lead in Oregon according to a new Oregonian poll. That puts another Gore state into Bush's column, although the results are well within the margin of error. This move doesn't increase Bush's "safe state" totals that now stand at 238 Electoral Votes, but it does reduce the number of "safe state" Electoral Votes now in Kerry's column down to 185.

Here is the latest electoral breakdown from all the most recent electoral polls available. Right now there are 23 states where one candidate or the other is within striking distance (6 points or less) that I will track as a "Battleground" state. Below you will also find the leads that each candidate has enjoyed since John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate as well as a breakdown of who is leading among secured Electoral Votes (outside the margin of error):

Bush has led the Electoral Vote count: 20 days
Kerry has led the Electoral Vote count: 43 days
The Electoral Vote count has been Tied: 1 day
Lead changes: 6
Current trend: Favors Bush

Currently Bush has gained the states of Oregon (+7 Electoral Votes), Wisconsin (+10 Electoral Votes) and Pennsylvania (+21 Electoral Votes) while Kerry has gained New Hampshire (+4 Electoral Votes), and West Virginia (+5 Electoral Votes) from the 2000 election. Coloradao (a Bush state), as well as Iowa and Minnesota (two Gore state) are tied in the most recent polls available. All the other states remain the same as of today.

EV - State - Poll - Date - Lead - (Recent Polls/Leads)

10 - <B>Arizona</B> - <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/09-08-2004/0002246425&EDATE=">Arizona Republic</a> - September 3-5 - Bush +16.0
06 - <B>Arkansas</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Arkansas%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +6.0
09 - <B>Colorado</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Colorado_August.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 19 - Tied
27 - <B>Florida</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/florida.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - August 26-28 - Bush +4.0
07 - <B>Iowa</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa.htm">Strategic Vision<a> - August 26-28 - Tied
09 - <B>Louisiana</B> - <a href="http://www.nola.com/enter/index.ssf?/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf%3f/base/news-10/1090883674295910.xml">MRI</a> - July 14 - Bush +16.0
04 - <B>Maine</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Maine%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Kerry +5.0
17 - <B>Michigan</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Michigan%20September%206.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 27-September 3 - Kerry +4.0
10 - <B>Minnesota</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Minnesota%20Sept%205.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 27-September 3 - Tied
11 - <B>Missouri</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Missouri%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +5.0
05 - <B>Nevada</B> - <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/08/22/politics1325EDT0466.DTL">Research 2000</a> - August 14-17 - Bush +2.0
04 - <B>New Hampshire</B> - <a href="http://americanresearchgroup.com/nh/">American Research Group</a> - August 3-5 - Kerry +7.0
15 - <B>New Jersey</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/New%20Jersey%20September%206.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 21-September 3 - Kerry +4.0
05 - <B>New Mexico</B> - <a href="http://www.albuquerquejournal.com/elex/218536elex09-05-04.htm">Albuquerque Journal</a> - August 27-September 1 - Bush +3.0
15 - <B>North Carolina</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/North%20Carolina%20August%2029.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +10.0
20 - <B>Ohio</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/ohio.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - August 26-28 - Bush +6.0
07 - <B>Oregon</B> - <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1094644855224680.xml">Oregonian</a> - August 26-September 1 - Bush +1.0
21 - <B>Pennsylvania</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pennsylvania.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - August 26-28 - Bush +2.0
11 - <B>Tennessee</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TN040803president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - July 31-August 2 - Bush +2.0
13 - <B>Virginia</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20August%2029.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +5.0
11 - <B>Washington</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Washington%20August%2029.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Kerry +7.0
05 - <B>West Virginia </B> - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wv/">American Research Group</a> - July 26-28 - Kerry +3.0
10 - <B>Wisconsin</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/wisconsin.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - August 26-28 - Bush +2.0

---

The following is a breakdown based on the states that are safe Bush (where he leads outside the margin of error), safe Kerry (where he leads outside the margin of error), and statistically tied (where neither candidate leads outside the margin of error):

Safe Bush: 238
Safe Kerry: 185
Statistically Tied: 115 - Maine (K+5.0), New Jersey (+4.0), West Virginia (K+3.0), Missouri (B+5.0), Nevada (B+2.0), Oregon (B+1.0), Pennsylvania (B+2.0), Tennessee (B+2.0), Wisconsin (B+2.0), Colorado (Tied), Iowa (Tied), Minnesota (K+1.0)

Taco John
09-08-2004, 11:39 AM
Bush doesn't have a prayer of winning in Oregon...

Chief Henry
09-08-2004, 11:39 AM
Monsterously more good news for AMERICANS

RINGLEADER
09-08-2004, 11:51 AM
Not that it changes any of the totals, but I just added the new Arizona Republica poll that shows Bush up 16 points over Kerry (he was up 3 points over Kerry last month):

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/09-08-2004/0002246425&EDATE=

RINGLEADER
09-08-2004, 11:52 AM
Bush doesn't have a prayer of winning in Oregon...


I don't know why you say that Taco...it's an uphill battle, but he barely lost the state to Gore last time - it isn't like he lost by double-digits or even 5% last time around...

KC Dan
09-08-2004, 12:27 PM
I don't know why you say that Taco...it's an uphill battle, but he barely lost the state to Gore last time - it isn't like he lost by double-digits or even 5% last time around...
If the libs vote en masse, Kerry will win Oregon pretty easily. I see 50:1 Kerry bumper stickers over Bush, all the media attention here is for Kerry and against Bush, & Kerry's rally here brought out thousands vs Bush's hundreds. Just my observence from living here.

alnorth
09-08-2004, 01:35 PM
I see 50:1 Kerry bumper stickers over Bush

You basically see that in rural Kansas, too. Maybe not 50:1, but at least 5 or 10 to 1. No one believes Kansas is going blue this year. Kerry voters are often the noisy minority. The Republicans control the courts, the house, the senate, and the presidency. We still plan on voting (hopefully), but what do we have to be mad or noisy about?

RINGLEADER
09-08-2004, 03:31 PM
New Ohio poll shows Bush up 8 points according to CNN...

Warrior5
09-08-2004, 04:51 PM
The Oregon poll has to be flawed...California and New York would go Bush's way before Oregon ever did.

alnorth
09-08-2004, 06:38 PM
California and New York would go Bush's way before Oregon ever did.

Although I am also skeptical about Oregon, this statement is 100% false. Bush got buried in 2000, and will get buried in 2004 in both states. Oregon was low-single-digits in 2000.

Hel'n
09-08-2004, 06:53 PM
http://www.federalreview.com/images/ev-map-9-7-04.gif

Saggysack
09-09-2004, 08:26 AM
Mod's can we get this thread changed RL's Electoral vote count? The thread title is deceptively misleading if not downright lying. There hasn't been an electoral vote count yet.

RINGLEADER
09-09-2004, 09:13 AM
Mod's can we get this thread changed RL's Electoral vote count? The thread title is deceptively misleading if not downright lying. There hasn't been an electoral vote count yet.


Poor baby can't handle the truth...