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View Full Version : Polls Thru Sept. 9 Show Bush At 276 Electoral Votes, Kerry At 209, Tied At 53


RINGLEADER
09-09-2004, 10:56 AM
Latest Updates: News polls from Gallup and Rasmussen continue to show a widening lead for Bush in a variety of states, but the president's overall totals come down from yesterday due to a new survey showing Florida once again tied. Bush continues to maintain his leads in a number of Gore states from 2000 while Kerry's lead in previously safe blue states like New Jersey continues to dwindle.

Here is the latest electoral breakdown from all the most recent electoral polls available. Right now there are 23 states where one candidate or the other is within striking distance (6 points or less) that I will track as a "Battleground" state. Below you will also find the leads that each candidate has enjoyed since John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate as well as a breakdown of who is leading among secured Electoral Votes (outside the margin of error):

Bush has led the Electoral Vote count: 21 days
Kerry has led the Electoral Vote count: 43 days
The Electoral Vote count has been Tied: 1 day
Lead changes: 6
Current trend: Favors Kerry

Currently Bush has gained the states of Oregon (+7 Electoral Votes), Wisconsin (+10 Electoral Votes) and Pennsylvania (+21 Electoral Votes) while Kerry has gained New Hampshire (+4 Electoral Votes), and West Virginia (+5 Electoral Votes) from the 2000 election. Coloradao and Florida (two Bush states), as well as Iowa and Minnesota (two Gore state) are tied in the most recent polls available. All the other states remain the same as of today.

EV - State - Poll - Date - Lead - (Recent Polls/Leads)

10 - <B>Arizona</B> - <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/09-08-2004/0002246425&EDATE=">Arizona Republic</a> - September 3-5 - Bush +16.0
06 - <B>Arkansas</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Arkansas%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +6.0
09 - <B>Colorado</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Colorado_August.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 19 - Tied
27 - <B>Florida</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/MembersOnly/Daily%20Tracking%20Updates/Florida.htm?">Rasmussen</a> - September 1-7 - Tied
07 - <B>Iowa</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa.htm">Strategic Vision<a> - August 26-28 - Tied
09 - <B>Louisiana</B> - <a href="http://www.nola.com/enter/index.ssf?/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf%3f/base/news-10/1090883674295910.xml">MRI</a> - July 14 - Bush +16.0
04 - <B>Maine</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Maine%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Kerry +5.0
17 - <B>Michigan</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/MembersOnly/Daily%20Tracking%20Updates/Michigan.htm">Rasmussen</a> - September 1-7 - Kerry +1.0
10 - <B>Minnesota</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Minnesota%20Sept%205.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 27-September 3 - Tied
11 - <B>Missouri</B> - <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-08-poll.htm">Gallup</a> - September 3-6 - Bush +14.0
05 - <B>Nevada</B> - <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/08/22/politics1325EDT0466.DTL">Research 2000</a> - August 14-17 - Bush +2.0
04 - <B>New Hampshire</B> - <a href="http://americanresearchgroup.com/nh/">American Research Group</a> - August 3-5 - Kerry +7.0
15 - <B>New Jersey</B> - <a href="http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-nj--bush-kerry-poll0909sep08,0,3824404,print.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire">Star-Ledger</a> - September 3-7 - Kerry +4.0
05 - <B>New Mexico</B> - <a href="http://www.albuquerquejournal.com/elex/218536elex09-05-04.htm">Albuquerque Journal</a> - August 27-September 1 - Bush +3.0
15 - <B>North Carolina</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/MembersOnly/Daily%20Tracking%20Updates/North%20Carolina.htm">Rasmussen</a> - September 1-7 - Bush +15.0
20 - <B>Ohio</B> - <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-08-poll.htm>Gallup</a> - September 4-7 - Bush +9.0
07 - <B>Oregon</B> - <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1094644855224680.xml">Oregonian</a> - August 26-September 1 - Bush +1.0
21 - <B>Pennsylvania</B> - <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-08-poll.htm>Gallup</a> - September 4-7 - Bush +1.0
11 - <B>Tennessee</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TN040803president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - July 31-August 2 - Bush +2.0
13 - <B>Virginia</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20August%2029.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +5.0
11 - <B>Washington</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/washington.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - August 9-11 - Kerry +2.0
05 - <B>West Virginia </B> - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wv/">American Research Group</a> - July 26-28 - Kerry +3.0
10 - <B>Wisconsin</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/wisconsin.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - August 26-28 - Bush +2.0

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The following is a breakdown based on the states that are safe Bush (where he leads outside the margin of error), safe Kerry (where he leads outside the margin of error), and statistically tied (where neither candidate leads outside the margin of error):

Safe Bush: 222
Safe Kerry: 183
Statistically Tied: 133 - Maine (K+5.0), Michigan (K+1.0), Washington (K+2.0), West Virginia (K+3.0), Nevada (B+2.0), Oregon (B+1.0), Pennsylvania (B+2.0), Tennessee (B+2.0), Wisconsin (B+2.0), Colorado (Tied), Florida (Tied), Iowa (Tied), Minnesota (Tied)

BigMeatballDave
09-09-2004, 11:29 AM
Can we get a Mod to change the thread head? Kerry cannot be trailing in the polls! He just cannot. jAZ won't have it...

Calcountry
09-09-2004, 11:55 AM
Can we get a Mod to change the thread head? Kerry cannot be trailing in the polls! He just cannot. jAZ won't have it...
If you vote on the new touch screen there Dave, make sure you use that middle finger. :p

King_Chief_Fan
09-09-2004, 11:58 AM
Can we get a Mod to change the thread head? Kerry cannot be trailing in the polls! He just cannot. jAZ won't have it...

rep!

RINGLEADER
09-09-2004, 01:05 PM
Can we get a Mod to change the thread head? Kerry cannot be trailing in the polls! He just cannot. jAZ won't have it...


BOMBSHELL!