View Full Version : Newsweek: Bush's bounce Bush's bounce deflates... loses 6%

09-11-2004, 06:19 PM

The poll by Newsweek magazine showed Bush with 49 percent support, Kerry 43 percent and Nader with 2 percent. The survey of 1,003 registered voters on Sept. 9-10 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A week ago, at the end of the Republican convention, Bush led with 52 percent to Kerry's 41 percent.

I have to say that these polls are almost meaningless lately... Newsweek goes from a flawed 11 points down to a more reasonable 5%, but Rasmussen and others have it at 2%, while time has it at 11% still.

I don't get it.

09-11-2004, 06:25 PM
I don't get it.Tell us something we don't know...

09-11-2004, 06:30 PM
I think a better way to look at this (and the other polls) is where they have Bush pre and post convention. Even with the revised numbers from Newsweek he still has an 8-point bounce from before the convention. Just like the Time poll. Just like the Zogby poll. Just like the AP poll. Just like the ABC poll. Just like the Democracy Corp poll.

The only outliers are the Fox poll (that showed a 4 point gain) and Rasmussen (who shows a 1-2 point gain).

I think the horserace numbers are probably somewhere between 4-6 points, although ALL the polls pretty universally show Kerry down 20-30 points on defense issues, terrorism and Iraq. To get elected he's going to have to convince 20% of the electorate to vote for the guy they think will make them less safe in the next four years. As I said on another thread, it's not impossible, but it's not easy either.

09-12-2004, 04:00 AM
Tell us something we don't know...
You don't get it either.

09-12-2004, 07:31 AM
You don't get it either.

all hail the mighty Jaz. lonely, bitter and indignant.

09-12-2004, 07:55 AM
all hail the mighty Jaz. lonely, bitter and indignant.

Crazed...Don't forget the crazed...

09-12-2004, 09:10 AM
The left is making a lot out of Bush's supposedly deflating bounce in the most recent Newsweek poll. What I haven't heard mentioned, however, is that the Newsweek poll, even despite the recent erosion of the last week according to the magazine, still shows Bush with an 8-point lead over where he was in the weeks before the Republican convention:

Aug 5-10: Kerry <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/09-04-2004/0002244238&EDATE=">+2.0</a>
Sept 9-10: Bush <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040911/nysa006_1.html">+6.0</a>
Net Bounce For Bush: 8.0%

This is virtually identical to a bevy of other polls, including:

Aug 12-14: Kerry <a href="http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=851">+4.0</a>
Sept 8-9: Bush <a href="http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=863">+4.0</a>
Net Bounce For Bush: 8.0%

Aug 24-26: Bush <a href="http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,689369,00.html">+2.0</a>
Sept 7-9: Bush <a href="http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,695528,00.html">+11.0</a>
Net Bounce For Bush: 9.0%

Aug 3-5: Kerry <a href="http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040806/D849V9Q80.html">+3.0</a>
Sept 7-9: Bush <a href="http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/politics/index.ssf?/base/politics-5/109486195528220.xml&storylist=electionmi_">+5.0</a>
Net Bounce For Bush: 8.0%

ABC/Washington Post
Aug 26-29: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46918-2004Aug30.html">Tied</a>
Sept 6-8: Bush <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/polltrend_090804.html">+9.0</a>
Net Bounce For Bush: 9.0%

CBS News
Aug 15-18: Kerry <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/August_election.pdf">+1.0 </a>
Sept 6-8: Bush <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/09/opinion/polls/main642108.shtml">+7.0</a>
Net Bounce For Bush: 8.0%

So you have six polls that show virtually the same thing - Bush with 8-9 point bounces from his convention - while three polls, Gallup (with a 5-point net bounce), Fox (with a 5-point net bounce), and Rasmussen (which has tracked recently with a 1 or 2-point net bounce recently) serving as the "outliers".

The election will tighten up some weeks. It will separate in others. But for the libs or the media to point to the Newsweek poll as evidence of major slippage for Bush is just not supported by fact.