View Full Version : On the Other End Of the Spectrum...Gallup Has Bush Up 54-40

09-16-2004, 06:56 PM
Poll coming out Friday.

09-16-2004, 09:30 PM
Is it possible that by November Kerry could actually reach 0%?

09-16-2004, 09:32 PM
Poll coming out Friday.

As much as I'd love to believe it, this Gallup poll must be flawed in some way.

A 14 point lead?

Mr. Kotter
09-16-2004, 09:38 PM
Is it possible that by November Kerry could actually reach 0%?

Nah....the jAZ/Frankie/jettio/Duhnese/saggysack/beerme types represent a 30% contingent of "yellow dog Democrats" who despise Bush and nearly any other Republican.

You see, us "blue dog" democrats are the Reagan Democrat/Bush/Clinton/Bush voters of the past 20 years that are pissed off enough at the party that has left us behind, that we vote Republican in the national races more and more every year....although I still vote Democrat at the state and local level quite often.

Kerry will get 40%, but likely less than any Democratic candidate since 1988....

09-16-2004, 10:19 PM
As much as I'd love to believe it, this Gallup poll must be flawed in some way.

A 14 point lead?

Why is it so surprising? Kerry is the weakest candidate ever. Reagan and Nixon won by more than that and the percentage of Republicans is a lot higher now than then.

09-16-2004, 10:31 PM

What we have here is a basic serious flaw in the polls.

Some polls just contact their likely voter sample, and adjust for demographics (race, gender, etc) before posting results.

Some polls contact likely voters, then look at the parties. If there are too many Republicans, they count that as a demographic, adjust, and post.

The polls that say "Republican" is a demographic show a tight race. The polls that believe that people could change parties and therefore do not adjust for party affiliation are showing a large Bush lead, coasting to an easy landslide victory.

Which is correct? We have no clue, because this has never happened to this degree before. In elections past, the parties in the poll closely matched the ratio that voted last election. However, this year we are getting a ton of Republicans answering the phone, so some polls are treating that as an error to adjust down to a tight race.

The basic question is: is the republican sample an error, or have people actually shifted Republican? We wont know till the exit polls come out. After that, hopefully polls will be more accurate in '08

09-16-2004, 10:41 PM
Sep 17, 12:30 AM (ET)


WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush has a double-digit lead in one new national poll, but he's tied with Democrat John Kerry in another. Both campaigns say their own polling has the race close, with Bush's people seeing a slight lead for the president.

Kerry and Bush are tied in a Pew Research Center poll taken Sept. 11-14, after Bush was up by 12 points or more from a Pew sample taken Sept. 8-10. A Gallup poll being released early Friday has Bush up 54 percent to 40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

"After so long when the polls were deadlocked no matter what happened, now we have a situation where voter opinion is unsettled," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. "There's a lot of uncertainty and you're going to have more variation in the polls than we've had in the past."

The first of two national polls by Pew, done Sept. 8-10, reflected the president's post-convention bounce. Bush was ahead of Kerry 52-40 among registered voters and by an even wider margin, 54-39, among likely voters, a narrower group.

By the second poll, done Sept. 11-14, the Bush lead had evaporated, the center said Thursday. In that poll, Bush and Kerry were knotted at 46 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, Bush was at 47 percent and Kerry at 46 percent.

While Bush has held onto some positive impact from the GOP convention, his "vulnerabilities on Iraq and the economy continue, and these have anchored the race," Kohut said.

After the Republican convention and its four days of criticism of Kerry, Bush grabbed a lead ranging from 5 points to 11 points in various national polls. That lead appeared to be shrinking by late last week, and a Harris poll out Thursday also showed the race even.

Bush continues to hold a commanding lead on the question of who would do the best job of defending the country from terrorists, by 58 percent to 31 percent in the Pew poll. And he's seen by more as a strong leader.

But people are more likely to disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and are evenly split on his dealing with Iraq. Almost six in 10 said it's not clear what Bush will do about Iraq if he is re-elected.

Interest in the presidential debates is high with 61 percent saying it's very likely they will tune in to watch - compared with 43 percent who said that in September 2000. Three in 10 said the debates will matter in their voting decision.

By a 3-1 margin, voters said they think Bush is likely to win re-election in November.

The first Pew poll of 970 registered voters was taken Sept. 8-10 and the second poll of 1,002 registered voters was taken Sept. 11-14. The margin of sampling error for both polls was 3.5 percentage points.

The Gallup poll of 767 likely voters was taken Sept. 13-15 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.


09-16-2004, 10:55 PM
By a 3-1 margin, voters said they think Bush is likely to win re-election in November.


09-16-2004, 11:14 PM
Judging by the manner in which the Kerry campaign and the DNC are reacting I don't believe this race is tied for a second. The state polls are also trending away from Kerry and the Gallup poll is going to drown out all the other little league polls. If Time and Newsweek come out on Sunday with Bush up big then that will be the story. If they show the race tightening then it will blunt the Gallup poll. If they all show Bush up big it will set things up for Kerry to start rebounding when he gets the race down to 4-5 points which is where I think this race will end up being on November 2nd.

09-16-2004, 11:16 PM
Tell 'em, RL.

Joe Seahawk
09-16-2004, 11:35 PM
:clap: :clap: :clap: