PDA

View Full Version : Polls Thru Sept. 17 Show Bush At 334 Electoral Votes, Kerry At 204


RINGLEADER
09-17-2004, 02:03 PM
Latest Updates: New polls show Bush gaining new electoral votes from previous Dem states of Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Jersey while expanding his lead in Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada. Kerry, meanwhile, retakes Oregon and Maine and has whittled down Bush's lead in Missouri.

The biggest change is that the views of voters is beginning to solidify. There are only 8 states that remain within the margin of error (Bush now has more than enough Electoral Votes in polls outside the margin of error), and there are no ties in the straight up numbers.

It should also be noted that two new polls have New York and Illinois within the six-point margin I set to determine Battleground States at the beginning of this, but until there are additional polls that show these two states so close they'll stay off the map for now.

Here is the latest electoral breakdown from all the most recent electoral polls available. Right now there are 23 states where one candidate or the other is within striking distance (6 points or less) that I will track as a "Battleground" state. Below you will also find the leads that each candidate has enjoyed since John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate as well as a breakdown of who is leading among secured Electoral Votes (outside the margin of error):

Bush has led the Electoral Vote count: 28 days
Kerry has led the Electoral Vote count: 44 days
The Electoral Vote count has been Tied: 1 day
Lead changes: 8
Current trend: Favors Bush

Currently Bush has gained the states of New Jersey (+15 Electoral Votes), Wisconsin (+10 Electoral Votes), Iowa (+7 Electoral Votes) and Pennsylvania (+21 Electoral Votes) while Kerry has gained New Hampshire (+4 Electoral Votes), and West Virginia (+5 Electoral Votes) from the 2000 election. All the other states remain the same as of today.

EV - State - Poll - Date - Lead

10 - <B>Arizona</B> - <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/09-08-2004/0002246425&EDATE=">Arizona Republic</a> - September 3-5 - Bush +16.0
06 - <B>Arkansas</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Arkansas%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +6.0
09 - <B>Colorado</B> - <a href="http://www.insidedenver.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_3188882,00.html">Rocky Mountain News</a> - September 12-13 - Bush +1.0
27 - <B>Florida</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/FL040914pressen.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 12-14 - Bush +6.0
07 - <B>Iowa</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa.htm">Strategic Vision<a> - September 13-15 - Bush +2.0
09 - <B>Louisiana</B> - <a href="http://www.nola.com/enter/index.ssf?/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf%3f/base/news-10/1090883674295910.xml">MRI</a> - July 14 - Bush +16.0
04 - <B>Maine</B> - <a href="http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/news/state/040912poll.shtml">American Research Group</a> - August 1-26 - Kerry +4.0
17 - <B>Michigan</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/michigan.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 13-15 - Kerry +6.0
10 - <B>Minnesota</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/minnesota.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 11-13 - Kerry +3.0
11 - <B>Missouri</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MO040910presgovsen.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 7-9 - Bush +2.0
05 - <B>Nevada</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NV040914president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 11-13 - Bush +4.0
04 - <B>New Hampshire</B> - <a href="http://americanresearchgroup.com/nh/">American Research Group</a> - August 3-5 - Kerry +7.0
15 - <B>New Jersey</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NJ040915president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 12-14 - Bush +4.0
05 - <B>New Mexico</B> - <a href="http://www.albuquerquejournal.com/elex/218536elex09-05-04.htm">Albuquerque Journal</a> - August 27-September 1 - Bush +3.0
15 - <B>North Carolina</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/MembersOnly/Daily%20Tracking%20Updates/North%20Carolina.htm">Rasmussen</a> - September 1-7 - Bush +15.0
20 - <B>Ohio</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/ohio.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 11-13 - Bush +12.0
07 - <B>Oregon</B> - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/">American Research Group</a> - September 9-13 - Kerry +2.0
21 - <B>Pennsylvania</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pennsylvania.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +5.0
11 - <B>Tennessee</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TN040803president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - July 31-August 2 - Bush +2.0
13 - <B>Virginia</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20August%2029.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +5.0
11 - <B>Washington</B> - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/">American Research Group</a> - September 10-13 - Kerry +7.0
05 - <B>West Virginia </B> - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wv/">American Research Group</a> - July 26-28 - Kerry +3.0
10 - <B>Wisconsin</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/wisconsin.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 11-13 - Bush +6.0

---

The following is a breakdown based on the states that are safe Bush (where he leads outside the margin of error), safe Kerry (where he leads outside the margin of error), and statistically tied (where neither candidate leads outside the margin of error):

Safe Bush: 291
Safe Kerry: 182
Statistically Tied: 65 - Minnesota (K+3.0), Oregon (K+2.0), West Virginia (K+3.0), Colorado (Bush +1.0), Iowa (B+2.0), Missouri (B+2.0), Nevada (B+4.0), Tennessee (B+2.0)

alnorth
09-17-2004, 02:15 PM
I think we should banish Arizona, Louisiana, and North Carolina to the lock list, and begin tracking New York and Illinois as competitive. :thumb: