View Full Version : New CBS Poll: Bush Expands Lead To 9.0 Points

09-17-2004, 06:15 PM
So we have Gallup at 13 points and CBS at 9 points.


09-17-2004, 06:39 PM
But are we supposed to believe it? According to Rather we are supposed to disregard the parts of the CBS reports that we prove are fake and only regard the parts of that same report that we can't prove are fake.

I'm confused...

09-17-2004, 07:06 PM
Most believe Kerry is spending his time attacking Bush
More believe Bush is spending his time talking about issues

Most (54%) agree that war in Iraq was the right thing to do.

Right-track/wrong-track at 46%-51% (7 points higher than Clinton mustered up on election day 1996)

51% think Kerry spends too much time talking about the past.

Kerry favorable-unfavorable: 31%-42%
Bush favorable-unfavorable: 47%-38%

Confident in Kerry handling an international situation: 32% Yes, 60% No

Confident in Bush handling an international situation: 51% Yes, 48% No

Cares about people like you:
Kerry 64%, Bush 58%

Shares American's moral values:
Kerry 55%, Bush 66%

Strong qualities of leadership:
Kerry 50%, Bush 63%

Like him personally:
Kerry 50%, Bush 60%

Shares your priorities:
Kerry 44%, Bush 47%

Says what he believes:
Kerry 30%, Bush 55%

Is it clear what candidate wants to accomplish as president:

Kerry Yes 38%, No 57%
Bush Yes 50%, No 44%

09-17-2004, 07:20 PM
Says what he believes:
Kerry 30%, Bush 55%

That one really jumped out at me. What the heck are 30% thinking?

siberian khatru
09-17-2004, 07:31 PM
Somebody better check the font on that poll.

09-17-2004, 07:37 PM
Yeah, there's about 30% of America that buys the left message hook, line and sinker. Same for the right. About 10% lean either way and usually vote that way.

Michael Michigan
09-17-2004, 07:37 PM
One thing about CBS polls if you dig deep enough they usually give the sample.

In most CBS News Polls, Democrats outnumber Republicans among registered voters. Personal identification with a party can change (temporarily or permanently) with events and voting preferences. In many states voters do not register with a party, and individual identification is a matter of choice. In this poll, where the Republicans hold a significant lead in voter preference and more voters hold negative views about Democratic nominee John Kerry, when voters are asked about their partisan identification at the end of the questionnaire, more identify themselves as Republicans. 36 percent say they are Republican, 32 percent Democrats. The percentage that identifies themselves as Democrats in this poll is lower than it has been in CBS News Polls conducted earlier in the year.

That's skewed a bit towards the GOP, but in the ballpark. There's little good for Kerry in this poll.

Michael Michigan
09-17-2004, 07:40 PM
Somebody better check the font on that poll.

It was conducted exclusively from the Abilene Kinko's.

09-17-2004, 07:54 PM
I have been a strong believer in party affiliation as a weighting factor but when you rely on that it not only weights the poll to look like past elections, but it also limits the growth that either party can enjoy from cycle to cycle. If the Dems are as depressed on election day as they are today I wouldn't be surprised to see many more Republicans turn out despite the voting trends of 2000.

But as far as the national polls are concerned I think they currently rest somewhere between Zogby and Rasmussen (who does weight to 39% Dem, 35% Republican) who both have the race at 4 points, and Gallup/Time/CBS who have the race averaged out around 11 points for Bush.

The in-between point, therefore, would be around 7-8 points up for Bush. Judging by how the Kerry camp is behaving I'd say that's probably accurate.

09-17-2004, 08:01 PM
I've never been one to follow polls but you, RL make it make sense.