Polls Thru Sept. 18 Show Bush At 343 Electoral Votes, Kerry At 195 [Archive]

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RINGLEADER

09-18-2004, 07:49 PM

Latest Updates: Two new polls out of Missouri show Bush expanding his lead near double-digits, while a new slew of Mason-Dixon results reveal <a href="http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6038211/">Bush solidifying his leads in the Red Battleground States</a> with a double-digit lead in Arizona, a nine-point lead in New Hampshire, seven-point leads in Missouri and Ohio, and a one-point lead in West Virginia. These new results take away ALL of the states Kerry had a lead in that went for Bush in 2000.

These most recent gains in the new polls put Bush not only in a commanding lead for the overall Electoral Vote count as of today's polls, but also put him over 300 in those polls that show him outside the margin of error.

Here is the latest electoral breakdown from all the most recent electoral polls available. Right now there are 23 states where one candidate or the other is within striking distance (6 points or less) that I will track as a "Battleground" state. Below you will also find the leads that each candidate has enjoyed since John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate as well as a breakdown of who is leading among secured Electoral Votes (outside the margin of error):

Bush has led the Electoral Vote count: 29 days
Kerry has led the Electoral Vote count: 44 days
The Electoral Vote count has been Tied: 1 day
Lead changes: 8
Current trend: Favors Bush

Currently Bush has gained the states of New Jersey (+15 Electoral Votes), Wisconsin (+10 Electoral Votes), Iowa (+7 Electoral Votes) and Pennsylvania (+21 Electoral Votes) while Kerry has not gained any Bush states from the 2000 election. All the other states remain the same as of today.

EV - State - Poll - Date - Lead

10 - Arizona - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9692289.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +11.0
06 - Arkansas - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Arkansas%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +6.0
09 - Colorado - <a href="http://www.insidedenver.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_3188882,00.html">Rocky Mountain News</a> - September 12-13 - Bush +1.0
27 - Florida - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/FL040914pressen.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 12-14 - Bush +6.0
07 - Iowa - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa.htm">Strategic Vision<a> - September 13-15 - Bush +2.0
09 - Louisiana - <a href="http://www.nola.com/enter/index.ssf?/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf%3f/base/news-10/1090883674295910.xml">MRI</a> - July 14 - Bush +16.0
04 - Maine - <a href="http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/news/state/040912poll.shtml">American Research Group</a> - August 1-26 - Kerry +4.0
17 - Michigan - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/michigan.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 13-15 - Kerry +6.0
10 - Minnesota - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/minnesota.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 11-13 - Kerry +3.0
11 - Missouri - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699945.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +7.0
05 - Nevada - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699959.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +5.0
04 - New Hampshire - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699950.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +9.0
15 - New Jersey - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NJ040915president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 12-14 - Bush +4.0
05 - New Mexico - <a href="http://www.albuquerquejournal.com/elex/218536elex09-05-04.htm">Albuquerque Journal</a> - August 27-September 1 - Bush +3.0
15 - North Carolina - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/MembersOnly/Daily%20Tracking%20Updates/North%20Carolina.htm">Rasmussen</a> - September 1-7 - Bush +15.0
20 - Ohio - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699963.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +7.0
07 - Oregon - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/">American Research Group</a> - September 9-13 - Kerry +2.0
21 - Pennsylvania - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pennsylvania.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +5.0
11 - Tennessee - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TN040803president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - July 31-August 2 - Bush +2.0
13 - Virginia - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20August%2029.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +5.0
11 - Washington - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/">American Research Group</a> - September 10-13 - Kerry +7.0
05 - West Virginia - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699964.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +1.0
10 - Wisconsin - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/wisconsin.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 11-13 - Bush +6.0

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The following is a breakdown based on the states that are safe Bush (where he leads outside the margin of error), safe Kerry (where he leads outside the margin of error), and statistically tied (where neither candidate leads outside the margin of error):

Safe Bush: 311
Safe Kerry: 178
Statistically Tied: 49 - Minnesota (K+3.0), Oregon (K+2.0), Colorado (Bush +1.0), Iowa (B+2.0), Tennessee (B+2.0), West Virginia (B+1.0)

Bowser

09-18-2004, 08:01 PM

Are you sure Faux news didn't make this up? :hmmm:

RINGLEADER

09-18-2004, 08:47 PM

Are you sure Faux news didn't make this up? :hmmm:

ROFL

If you want to see real humor, go over the DemocratsUnderground.com and read their 3,000-word posts attempting to explain away all the polls that show Bush taking command of this race.

One poll can be ignored, but when there are 3-4 polls all saying the same things in the Battleground states you have to wonder what Kerry is going to do to get the dynamics of this election to change. I think we're getting close to the point of no return for Kerry. If he scores a knock-out with something that he's been unable to verbalize for the past year or Bush were to launch an uber-gaffe of the type Gerald Ford put out (and then wouldn't refute) during the Carter debates, I don't see this race changing.

They're really down to the debates and the hope that Fitzgerald indicts Bush in the days before the election...absent that I know how many days Kerry has to reverse this trend...

Hel'n

09-18-2004, 08:53 PM

As much as Kerry is losing (and he is), this just doesn't sound right and is not consistent with other polling data...

RINGLEADER

09-18-2004, 09:17 PM

As much as Kerry is losing (and he is), this just doesn't sound right and is not consistent with other polling data...

What part is inconsistent?

Last two polls show Bush in double digits in Arizona,
Colorado is still close,
Bush has maintained the lead in Florida pretty consistently for the last month,
Iowa is bouncing back-and-forth,
Maine has been a few points in Kerry's favor to tied in the last three polls,
Michigan has been solid 6-points for Kerry in the last 3-4 polls,
Minnesota has gone back and forth between Kerry and Bush the last couple polls,
Missouri has been solid Bush the last half-dozen polls,
Nevada has been for Bush 4-5 points the last couple polls,
New Hampshire is a new change for Bush, but the M-D poll is the first one in some time,
New Jersey has been between 2-3 points for Kerry and 4 points for Bush in the last handful of polls,
New Mexico has been in Kerry's side until recently, but Bush barely lost it last time so it's not a surprise,
North Carolina hasn't been competitive for months,
Ohio is now pretty solid for Bush - even Zogby thinks it is no longer a Battleground,
Oregon has been both slim Kerry and slim Bush,
Pennsylvania has been trending Bush the last two weeks, only one poll out of last six had it tied and rest were for Bush,
Tennessee is probably stronger for Bush than the last poll (from six weeks ago) shows,
Washington is probably the most solid Kerry battlegrounds of all these states,
West Virginia is a true toss-up with neither candidate grabbing outside the margin of error,
Wisconsin has shown Bush up outside the margin of error for the last few polls

Kerry's campaign has focused on first Kerry's Vietnam service, then on Bush's Vietnam service. Kerry's favorables are in the ditch across the board, people don't trust that he'll be consistent with his positions and they CLEARLY believe Bush will keep them safer by huge margins (at this point in the game).

I think it will tighten some, but for there to be a real sea change in this race something has to happen at the debates or from some outside influence (like a surprise indictment). I don't even think problems in Iraq will move the electorate at this point for a lot of the same reasons I was trying to tell Dems last month that the National Guard attacks would be met with a collective yawn. The CBS memos only serve to give Bush extra cover on this issue.

Still predict 321-217.

RINGLEADER

09-18-2004, 09:21 PM

Don't worry Hel'n, John Kerry's "October juices" are flowing...he dropped that BOMBSHELL on his supporters tonight...

http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/news/special_packages/election2004/9701603.htm

Hel'n

09-18-2004, 10:42 PM

If I remember right, didn't "Black Tuesday" for the market occur in October? I hope that's not what Kerry's talking about when he refers to "October juices"

;)

FringeNC

09-18-2004, 10:53 PM

As much as Kerry is losing (and he is), this just doesn't sound right and is not consistent with other polling data...

Yep. If Kerry is really down by double digits nationally, no way he gets almost 200 electoral votes. He'd be lucky to carry NY.

alnorth

09-19-2004, 07:30 AM

Yep. If Kerry is really down by double digits nationally, no way he gets almost 200 electoral votes. He'd be lucky to carry NY.

Some polls show NY and Illinois tightening towards the margin of error

RINGLEADER

09-19-2004, 08:50 AM

There's FINALLY a new Tennessee poll...Bush is now leading by 16. That leaves just five states with a total of 38 Electoral Votes that are currently within the margin of error.

Seems to me the electorate is hardening their views around Bush at the state level. Bush now, as of today, has a lead of 322-178 in "safe state" totals.

BCD

09-19-2004, 09:04 AM

RINGLEADER

09-19-2004, 09:44 AM

The closer we get to election day, the more it looks like Bush wins in a landslide. Not because Bush is running an extraordinary campaign, Kerry is just a lousy candidate running an even worse campaign...

Well Bush is just a wee-bit responsible for making Kerry look bad by highlighting that part of Kerry's career he tries to avoid (namely, everything he did after returning from Vietnam).

But I know what you're saying and I agree completely.

Bush doesn't have this locked up, but it is sure getting close. If Bush can get through the first debate with a draw (like Clinton did in 96) and there are no surprises he will win. I think Kerry is going to be persuasive in the first debate and that might keep him in the game a little while longer, but he's really boxed in right now between his past views, votes and quotes and the positions he WANTS to take to contrast his positions with Bush. Problem is, he can't do it and leave people with a straight face about his decisiveness.

Pretty much what all us Bush supporters have been saying for six months.