RINGLEADER
09-20-2004, 06:52 PM
Latest Updates: Another slew of polls from Mason-Dixon show Kerry losing support in additional states, including Oregon, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. The Mason-Dixon poll shows Kerry now leads in Pennsylvania, but another PA poll taken after the M-D survey shows Bush with the slight lead (four of the last six polls put Bush ahead in that state). Another shocker is that Maryland, long thought to be extremely safe for Kerry, is now tied (an 11-point shift from the same poll taken last month). Bush maintains a margin in "safe state" leads above the magic 270 number.
Here is the latest electoral breakdown from all the most recent electoral polls available. Right now there are 24 states where one candidate or the other is within striking distance (6 points or less) that I will track as a "Battleground" state. Below you will also find the leads that each candidate has enjoyed since John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate as well as a breakdown of who is leading among secured Electoral Votes (outside the margin of error):
Bush has led the Electoral Vote count: 31 days
Kerry has led the Electoral Vote count: 44 days
The Electoral Vote count has been Tied: 1 day
Lead changes: 8
Current trend: Favors Bush
Currently Bush has gained the states of New Jersey (+15 Electoral Votes), Wisconsin (+10 Electoral Votes), Iowa (+7 Electoral Votes), Oregon (+7 Electoral Votes), New Mexico (+5 Electoral Votes) and Pennsylvania (+21 Electoral Votes) while Kerry has not gained any Bush states from the 2000 election. Maryland (another Dem state from 2000) is now tied. All the other states remain the same as of today.
EV - State - Poll - Date - Lead
10 - <B>Arizona</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9692289.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +11.0
06 - <B>Arkansas</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Arkansas%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +6.0
09 - <B>Colorado</B> - <a href="http://www.insidedenver.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_3188882,00.html">Rocky Mountain News</a> - September 12-13 - Bush +1.0
27 - <B>Florida</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/FL040914pressen.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 12-14 - Bush +6.0
07 - <B>Iowa</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon<a> - September 13-14 - Bush +6.0
09 - <B>Louisiana</B> - <a href="http://www.nola.com/enter/index.ssf?/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf%3f/base/news-10/1090883674295910.xml">MRI</a> - July 14 - Bush +16.0
04 - <B>Maine</B> - <a href="http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/news/state/040912poll.shtml">American Research Group</a> - September 8-10 - Kerry +4.0
10 - <B>Maryland</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MD040920president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 17-19 - Tied
17 - <B>Michigan</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-14 - Kerry +6.0
10 - <B>Minnesota</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/minnesota.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 11-13 - Kerry +3.0
11 - <B>Missouri</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699945.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +7.0
05 - <B>Nevada</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699959.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +5.0
04 - <B>New Hampshire</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699950.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +9.0
15 - <B>New Jersey</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NJ040915president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 12-14 - Bush +4.0
05 - <B>New Mexico</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-14 - Bush +4.0
15 - <B>North Carolina</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/MembersOnly/Daily%20Tracking%20Updates/North%20Carolina.htm">Rasmussen</a> - September 1-7 - Bush +15.0
20 - <B>Ohio</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699963.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +7.0
07 - <B>Oregon</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-14 - Bush +4.0
21 - <B>Pennsylvania</B> - <a href="http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/9707064.htm?1c">Franklin/Marshall College</a> - September 8-15 - Bush +2.0
11 - <B>Tennessee</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TN040803president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - July 31-August 2 - Bush +2.0
13 - <B>Virginia</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20August%2029.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +5.0
11 - <B>Washington</B> - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/">American Research Group</a> - September 10-13 - Kerry +7.0
05 - <B>West Virginia </B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699964.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +1.0
10 - <B>Wisconsin</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-14 - Bush +2.0
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The following is a breakdown based on the states that are safe Bush (where he leads outside the margin of error), safe Kerry (where he leads outside the margin of error), and statistically tied (where neither candidate leads outside the margin of error):
Safe Bush: 294
Safe Kerry: 168
Statistically Tied: 76 - Minnesota (K+3.0), Colorado (B+1.0), Pennsylvania (B+2.0), Tennessee (B+2.0), West Virginia (B+1.0), Wisconsin (B+2.0), Maryland (Tied)
Here is the latest electoral breakdown from all the most recent electoral polls available. Right now there are 24 states where one candidate or the other is within striking distance (6 points or less) that I will track as a "Battleground" state. Below you will also find the leads that each candidate has enjoyed since John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate as well as a breakdown of who is leading among secured Electoral Votes (outside the margin of error):
Bush has led the Electoral Vote count: 31 days
Kerry has led the Electoral Vote count: 44 days
The Electoral Vote count has been Tied: 1 day
Lead changes: 8
Current trend: Favors Bush
Currently Bush has gained the states of New Jersey (+15 Electoral Votes), Wisconsin (+10 Electoral Votes), Iowa (+7 Electoral Votes), Oregon (+7 Electoral Votes), New Mexico (+5 Electoral Votes) and Pennsylvania (+21 Electoral Votes) while Kerry has not gained any Bush states from the 2000 election. Maryland (another Dem state from 2000) is now tied. All the other states remain the same as of today.
EV - State - Poll - Date - Lead
10 - <B>Arizona</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9692289.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +11.0
06 - <B>Arkansas</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Arkansas%20August%2028.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +6.0
09 - <B>Colorado</B> - <a href="http://www.insidedenver.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_3188882,00.html">Rocky Mountain News</a> - September 12-13 - Bush +1.0
27 - <B>Florida</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/FL040914pressen.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 12-14 - Bush +6.0
07 - <B>Iowa</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon<a> - September 13-14 - Bush +6.0
09 - <B>Louisiana</B> - <a href="http://www.nola.com/enter/index.ssf?/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf%3f/base/news-10/1090883674295910.xml">MRI</a> - July 14 - Bush +16.0
04 - <B>Maine</B> - <a href="http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/news/state/040912poll.shtml">American Research Group</a> - September 8-10 - Kerry +4.0
10 - <B>Maryland</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MD040920president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 17-19 - Tied
17 - <B>Michigan</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-14 - Kerry +6.0
10 - <B>Minnesota</B> - <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/minnesota.htm">Strategic Vision</a> - September 11-13 - Kerry +3.0
11 - <B>Missouri</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699945.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +7.0
05 - <B>Nevada</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699959.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +5.0
04 - <B>New Hampshire</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699950.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +9.0
15 - <B>New Jersey</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NJ040915president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - September 12-14 - Bush +4.0
05 - <B>New Mexico</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-14 - Bush +4.0
15 - <B>North Carolina</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/MembersOnly/Daily%20Tracking%20Updates/North%20Carolina.htm">Rasmussen</a> - September 1-7 - Bush +15.0
20 - <B>Ohio</B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699963.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +7.0
07 - <B>Oregon</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-14 - Bush +4.0
21 - <B>Pennsylvania</B> - <a href="http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/9707064.htm?1c">Franklin/Marshall College</a> - September 8-15 - Bush +2.0
11 - <B>Tennessee</B> - <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TN040803president.pdf">Survey USA</a> - July 31-August 2 - Bush +2.0
13 - <B>Virginia</B> - <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20August%2029.htm">Rasmussen</a> - August 1-26 - Bush +5.0
11 - <B>Washington</B> - <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/">American Research Group</a> - September 10-13 - Kerry +7.0
05 - <B>West Virginia </B> - <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699964.htm">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-15 - Bush +1.0
10 - <B>Wisconsin</B> - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/">Mason-Dixon</a> - September 13-14 - Bush +2.0
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The following is a breakdown based on the states that are safe Bush (where he leads outside the margin of error), safe Kerry (where he leads outside the margin of error), and statistically tied (where neither candidate leads outside the margin of error):
Safe Bush: 294
Safe Kerry: 168
Statistically Tied: 76 - Minnesota (K+3.0), Colorado (B+1.0), Pennsylvania (B+2.0), Tennessee (B+2.0), West Virginia (B+1.0), Wisconsin (B+2.0), Maryland (Tied)