Unless you peg his baseline at 37, which is what he hit last year.
Based on the history of baseball as well as Pujols performance over the last 4 years, there's an excellent chance that he peaked 3 seasons ago and the 'average' of 44.5 is long gone.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...r-hitters-age/
Worse, most guys will tell you that players will decline about 5% in overall production from years 31-34. Starting at about age 35, players start a
precipitous decline; generally about 15-20% less than their previous year's performance.
For the last 3 years, Albert's followed a pretty standard curve. If he continues to follow it over the next 10, he won't get that record. He'd hit 35,33,32,27,22,20,17,14,11,10 for a total of 221. The decline models account for injuries, so I don't believe Albert will ever hit 10 HRs over a 600 AB season, but by the time the man is 39 years old, he's not going to be coming back from injuries like he used to. He's not going to have those 600 AB seasons anymore.
Hell, even assuming a 'young' decline curve of 5% annually over every year of that 10 year contract (even though he's declined by 10% annually over the last 3), he'll hit 35,33,32,30,29,27,26,25,23 and 22; or 282 total. He'd
still come up short.
I think he'll get it, personally. I think he'll have a couple of years in there where his pride takes over and he explodes (maybe even next season). So I'm not sure the standard curve is fair to apply to him at all. Aaron had the best season of his career at 37; Musial had one of his best at 36. Proud men are wired differently.
That said, his health issues are well known. He has heavy legs that are constantly nagging at him. His heel is an issue on and off every year. Nobody really knows what kind of shape his elbow is in. While I think he's a very different breed of cat, there are also signs that suggest he could be slowing down just as many players before him have.