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I really wonder if Hudson is "undersized." I dont think nfl.com or the chiefs website accurately reflect his current weight, which i speculate is closer to 310 lbs.
http://media.al.com/mobile-press-reg...67f7bb38ab.jpg http://media.al.com/mobile-press-reg...d3c39ab83a.jpg https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.n...33455633_n.jpg |
Although I am open to competition, I too believe Hudson should stay at Center. It seems he has done a good job with the line calls.
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People need to stop talking about Hudson as if he is undersized.
He is fine, size wise, for a starting center in the NFL. |
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dunno what we will do next year |
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His job is to make the right calls, and seal off his guy. Centers are rarely, if ever, maulers. |
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Centers are not the catchers of the NFL, it matters what they do other than 'call the game'. Having a center that always needs help really hurts in short yardage. |
We need an upgrade at center. Not a "catcher" calling the game. Our interior line sucked.
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NOTE: Assumed discount rate for all NPV calculations is 5%, which is pretty conservative. Your first statement is simply not true. Contracts in the NFL aren't fully guaranteed. He may have a portion of his salary that is guaranteed, but I doubt it. I would bet his guaranteed years are already behind him. Your second statement is also simply not true. Hali would have 19 million in guaranteed money in my second scenario of which, he would get 15 upfront. His 2014 and 2015 salaries would also be guaranteed. This deal is based upon the figures Terrell Suggs got from the Ravens. And Hali probably wouldn't command as much as Suggs would in the open market. Also, if Hali wants a deal that makes him tough to cut in his twilight years, he simply won't get it. He is 30 years old and already has lost a step. It's not just about what he wants, but what he can get. In my contract, he gets a deal with a guaranteed NPV of 18,719, a probable NPV of 25,630 and a possible NPV of 40,086. That compares favorably to a deal with a NPV (assuming he is retained this year and cut next year) of 8,095 with a possible NPV of which would be that plus the NPV of whatever he could get on the open market after that. I mean, just crunch the numbers. In thousands My contract offer, possible scenarios: 2 years @ NPV of 18,719 + NPV of whatever he can get in the market at age 32 (100% probability of getting this money) or 3 years @NPV of 25,629 + NPV of whatever he can get in the market at age 33 (80% probability of getting this money) or 4 years @NPV of 33,033 +NPV of whatever he can get in the market at age 34 (20% probability of getting this money) or 5 years @NPV of 40,086 + NPV of whatever he can get in the market at age 35 (5% probability of getting this money) Or his current deal, possible scenarios: 0 years + NPV of whatever he can get in the open market at the age of 30 (5% probability of this scenario) 1 year @ NPV of 8,095 + NPV of whatever he can get in the open market at age 31 (95% probability of getting this money) 2 year @ NPV of 16,258 + NPV of whatever he can get in the open market at age 32 (25% probability of getting this money) I mean, the deal I propose is categorically better. Hell, let's compare this to Terrell Suggs deal. Terrell Suggs deal is structured such that he can be cut in 2016 for 0.2M in cap savings, cut in 2017 for 1.8M in cap savings or cut in 2018 for 4M in cap savings. Again, in thousands 2 year NPV of his deal: 15,580 3 year NPV of his deal: 19,468 (probably won't be cut.) 4 year NPV of his deal: 22,759 (maybe 50% chance of not being cut?) 5 year NPV of his deal: 25,893 (maybe 25% chance of not being cut?) |
Bump for the sake of my edit.
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I'm going to cut out all the stuff you wrote about NPV because it's long and has no place here. NPV is worthless and overcomplicated. Hali doesn't care about the NPV of his contract. He cares about how much money he is guaranteed, and how much money MIGHT be guaranteed. Period. There's no reason for him to care about the value of his contract in years where he knows he'll be cut anyway. |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Source: Cap will be $133 million per team <a href="http://t.co/u2GSiIHKAc">http://t.co/u2GSiIHKAc</a></p>— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) <a href="https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/statuses/439190619911507968">February 28, 2014</a></blockquote>
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