I think what we're concluding is that housing prices are spiking everywhere for a combination of reasons.

Low interest rates certainly play a part in that. Delayed demand plays a part as millennials didn't move into the market on a predictable basis and are now starting to catch up. Millennials are a big new population of buyers. Some people may have more cash due to stimulus stuff, though that's probably not significant. And I think there's still a lingering shortage of housing dating all the way back from the 2009-2010 recession. Investment funds are screwing over the American Dream by buying houses over what real people can pay. AirBnB corporations are buying houses so they can be fake hotels without paying taxes. Combine them all and you get this.

We bought our house 7 years ago and it’s doubled in value. We could currently rent this house for 2.5x our monthly mortgage payment.

None of that adds up to me and it shouldn’t be this high.

It’s going to crash .

On a percentage basis I bet it’s some place in Colorado. I have a landlord in Golden. What he’s telling me explodes my brain.

Well at this point a good 25-40% correction is absolutely warranted. And crashes will happen too as housing prices are cyclical like everything else.

We paid $223k for our place a little over 2 years ago. I'm fairly certain I could get close to $300k for it right now. Part of it is because it had a horrid kitchen that has since been renovated, but even without that it would probably be an easy $280k. And that's here in freaking Omaha...where nobody really wants to live.

We've certainly seen big increases. From what other people are saying, it may not be larger percentage-wise, but most Colorado homeowners are starting from a high base value. It adds up to a lot of appreciation.

The increases over the last couple years in metro Denver have been fairly substantial. Bought my house in Westminster in Fall of 2014 for $415k. Per Zillow the current value is $697.5k and per Realtor.com it's $751.6k. My neighbor just sold his for $750k.

If I didn't like the house so much/hate moving so much I'd sell it asap and pray for a big correction, but with the Fed printing money like a teenager with a new credit card I'm not sure that's going to happen anytime soon anyway. It would only take 30 more ounces of gold at current gold prices to buy my house at its current value than it would've taken to buy it for $415k in 2014 using Oct 2014 gold prices - so it's more the dollar losing value than it is my house gaining value.

this housing boom is different from 2008.

I assumed since he cashed it in and is now letting it rot in the bank. My bad. He's so lackadaisical with his finances that it frustrates me sometimes. :)

I downloaded a data set here that's apparently Zillow's year over year home sales prices for 2020 versus 2019.

https://sparkrental.com/hottest-real-estate-markets/

Check it out and see how your county is doing.

There's some inconsistency because you may have houses in different prices ranges selling from year to year, but it gives us a good feel. The thing that strikes me is that the appreciation isn't as high as I would expect at all. Denver posted a 6.71 percent increase according to this data, which is a great number, but anecdotally I was thinking it would be double that based on what I see in the market. The median county is about 4.45 percent.

I want to know wtf is going on in Antelope County, NE that warrants a 15.49% increase.

My best friend does very well in real estate out here. His most recent deal to go under contract the other day was for one guy, two houses, over $1m each, cash, and was simply able to outbid other suiters. Chicago guy who will be snowbirding.

This boom is a supply and demand issue that is likely to linger until new home starts get going again, when lumber costs come back down.

Phoenix inventory sucks right now for anything less than $500K. Probably better in Lewdog's area since nobody wants to live out there.

I'm guessing that a person must have moved there.

Living in the ghetto ain’t glamorous but it sure is cheap!

Yep, pure supply/demand issue here.

No one is getting mortgage loans that the banks know you cant afford as it was in 2008.

I refinanced recently with the same company that has the current loan to take advantage of the lower rates. If I'm an idiot and not pay my mortgage. I'd lose $100'sK. They get that profit. It's a win/win for them. They still ran me through the ringer of paperwork.

Yeah, there are major problems in our current housing market, but it's not the same as 2008 at all. The problem right now is a supply/demand issue as others have said rather than an issue of everyone taking out loans that they shouldn't.

The bigger issue we're starting to see in Colorado at least is that the people who work in certain areas aren't able to live there. That's becoming particularly problematic in mountain communities where there are tons of second home owners. You end up with a town where there are tons of empty houses but the workers are having to drive in from an hour away. And all those empty houses aren't spending money, so many businesses find it difficult to pay wages high enough to attract people from an hour away.

Tough to say how it'll all play out, but it doesn't seem sustainable.

California is losing high value taxpayers and importing low value tax takers.

The 181,000 people number is only half the equation. The revenues have been declining because good wage earners have been moving an low wage earners keep moving in along with so many illegals.

Your government is bloated as ****

While certainly different than '08 there seems something inherently risky about buying at peak boom. People are settling for homes or areas they might not have normally considered and going over asking prices just to get an offer accepted. Not sure how that shakes out, and maybe it doesn't negatively, but it seems the success stories coming out of '08 were based on getting in low.

All I know is that I can't move because the market moves too ****ing fast.

Found a house the other day and it was sold in 10 hours.

And rents are skyrocketing out here as a result.

The only winners in all of this are landlords and county assessors.

Sellers are making out OK.

They're just going to give it all back assuming they're buying another home to live in.

Yep.

Yeah, the 4.9 million that moved to CA last year were all broke ass ****tards that can't afford the high cost of housing and rent.

LMAO

Could you just give it a ****ing break and keep your politically motivated, horseshit posts in the DC?

Yeah, he's opposite of reality about who is moving out and in. Lower-income, lower educated people are moving out (because they can't afford it). Higher-income, higher educated people are moving in (because they can). Data here:

https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leavi...hos-moving-in/

That's not to say that it's a good thing to force lower-income people out, of course.

You've gotten soft.

This. Pretty much just estates of dead ****s.

Re: the "exodus" half of that, looks like they define "middle income" as about $51k - $138k, so that probably accounts for some of the confusion in terms of "rich people are moving out of California", especially for those of us living in a state where we see Californians buying up relatively expensive houses and helping jack up housing costs..

Of course $100k goes a lot further once you move out of CA, but it's also not McDonald's salary for CA, either.

They probably should have broken down that range a bit to get a better idea in terms of income out, IMO.

Same here. The people who do all the work have to drive a long way to do work here.

They are talking about putting "workforce housing" in a new development in our area. People are upset because they think its going to be low income housing. But, you will have to earn $60K-$80K to afford the rent. Thats low income housing now.

I'm assuming this is probably happening in a lot of places here in the USA not just in your and my areas.

All debt is still bad
Credit Card use is OK as long as you never carry a balance. If you carry a balance you should be using cash or debit cards as you are not disciplined enough to use credit.

Everyone’s situation is different. So credit card use is different for everyone as well. You can’t place what works for you and state that’s what everyone should do as well. It’s silly. You are assuming that because someone doesn’t pay off their credit card bills monthly means that they are undisciplined. Again, that is just not correct. I don’t like carrying credit card balances, but that’s my situation and what works for me.

2.5% mortgage rate.

Not bad debt as I put 25% of my salary into investment accounts.

$6k down on a $200k house. Now worth about $500k. Such bad debt.

https://c.tenor.com/80zMDyE85hAAAAAM/money-crying.gif

Math isn't for everyone.

Yeah, that’s just ignoring math. He assumes all people don’t understand how to
manage debt. I have a $2MM commercial line of credit with my bank. I could use my money to manage my business, but why would I? My interest rate to borrow vs what I can make on my money in the market is a wide spread.

He’s swallowing far too much Dave Ramsey, which is primarily good for people that can’t manage (or understand) debt.

Yeah, if I didn't use leverage I'd probably farm like 500 acres. And own none.

Dave Ramsey is unequivocally not applicable to business.

He's a truck driving Raiders fan. Cut him some slack, you savage.

Yup and imagine the folks who bought rental investment properties and literally had other people paying off the mortgage to build their equity along with tax write off, depreciation and finally selling for more appreciated value in a sellers market?

Ditto. I just use borrow money for business purposes which is smart business and tax wise.

Ok, so say the Raiders needed to buy moving trucks.

They could just save up the money for these moving trucks, but that could take time.

So, what if you financed these moving trucks at say 3%. After all, the Raiders are return customers and provide good business, so despite having a residence history longer than a CVS receipt, they would get a decent rate.

And now you could move sooner and start swindling an entirely new fan base in no time. Your rate of return in this new market is through the roof, far greater than the 3% being spent on moving truck interest.

And guess what, you now have the option of paying off the trucks sooner with the profit from the new location instead of digging into existing funds, while still making money that never would have been made had you waited to save for the trucks in full, AND now you'll be that much further ahead and could even pay for new trucks AND upper deck tarps when you have to skip town for Oakland in a few years.



...does that help? :shrug: