alnorth |
07-26-2015 11:57 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman
(Post 11619266)
I don't know about that 5% number.
Here's what I do know.
The Royals are now 0-36 when trailing going into the 8th inning.
An ace who pitches 6 or 7 games in the postseason, who doesn't allow teams to get leads, seems like something that increases this team's chance by a larger percentage than 5.
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You need to consider that there's a small chance we don't make the playoffs, and also a small chance that we don't win the division and have to play the wild card game, and if we get to the LDS round, there are 3 other very good teams on our side of the bracket and then the NL champion. That seems super-obvious and pointless to say, but it really makes a huge difference to our odds, and we're not going to be some kind of enormous 5 to 1 favorite in every series.
Right now the most favorable monte carlo simulations have us at about 15% to win the world series, which is also what the Vegas odds are implying. I don't think Cueto pushes us much past 20%.
That said, I think those extra few points are worth it because the value of winning the world series is so incredibly enormous that it probably skews the cost/benefit analysis towards clawing for those extra few percentage points.
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