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-   -   Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=293414)

Prison Bitch 07-26-2015 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman (Post 11619266)
I don't know about that 5% number.

Here's what I do know.

The Royals are now 0-36 when trailing going into the 8th inning.

An ace who pitches 6 or 7 games in the postseason, who doesn't allow teams to get leads, seems like something that increases this team's chance by a larger percentage than 5.

Cueto has 3 postseason starts, none of which were good and 1 where he left after the first batter. He's a massive upgrade but he isn't going to double our odds or anything drastic

Anyong Bluth 07-26-2015 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 11619230)
hah, jinx. Right after I posted that, Andy tweeted this

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Would make sense for Finnegan to be included in Cueto deal. His value may never be higher, as plenty within KC org. see him as a reliever.</p>— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCulloughStar/status/625358762040238080">July 26, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This may be one of those things where the Royals don't think he can start and teams outside KC think we're crazy and should be starting him. We very well could be wrong about him, but if he's valued higher outside KC, we gotta move him.

Also a victim of circumstance. We're in win mode. His value to us right now is mid relief. So, they're prioritizing his value with being up here and available because winning a pennant supercedes his developing as a starter at AA ball.

Sure-Oz 07-26-2015 11:53 AM

@BooneOWH: Finnegan didn't say anything while I was in the clubhouse. Lamb was openly talking about his name being mentioned with the potential trade.

tk13 07-26-2015 11:53 AM

There may not be a deal. There may be a deal agreed upon, and the Reds are checking out the medicals again. If that's what is happening, neither side is going to say anything. If they announced it then brought it back because of medical reasons they'd look horrible.

milkman 07-26-2015 11:54 AM

As a side bit of news, Greinke scoreless inning streak has come to an end.

Anyong Bluth 07-26-2015 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 11619238)
Ok, even if its 10%, then its still a small amt. Just watch the Vegas odds IMMEDIATELY before and after the trade and u will see.

What are they at right now? 9:2?

C3HIEF3S 07-26-2015 11:55 AM

This guy covers the Storm Chasers:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Finnegan didn&#39;t say anything while I was in the clubhouse. Lamb was openly talking about his name being mentioned with the potential trade.</p>&mdash; Tony Boone (@BooneOWH) <a href="https://twitter.com/BooneOWH/status/625362620975984640">July 26, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

petegz28 07-26-2015 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13 (Post 11619276)
There may not be a deal. There may be a deal agreed upon, and the Reds are checking out the medicals again. If that's what is happening, neither side is going to say anything. If they announced it then brought it back because of medical reasons they'd look horrible.

Mike Shanarat to the Chiefs......:thumb:

Sure-Oz 07-26-2015 11:56 AM

@ihateprospects: Managers and execs can't publicly confirm trade details on the record until they're done. It means nothing.

alnorth 07-26-2015 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman (Post 11619266)
I don't know about that 5% number.

Here's what I do know.

The Royals are now 0-36 when trailing going into the 8th inning.

An ace who pitches 6 or 7 games in the postseason, who doesn't allow teams to get leads, seems like something that increases this team's chance by a larger percentage than 5.

You need to consider that there's a small chance we don't make the playoffs, and also a small chance that we don't win the division and have to play the wild card game, and if we get to the LDS round, there are 3 other very good teams on our side of the bracket and then the NL champion. That seems super-obvious and pointless to say, but it really makes a huge difference to our odds, and we're not going to be some kind of enormous 5 to 1 favorite in every series.

Right now the most favorable monte carlo simulations have us at about 15% to win the world series, which is also what the Vegas odds are implying. I don't think Cueto pushes us much past 20%.

That said, I think those extra few points are worth it because the value of winning the world series is so incredibly enormous that it probably skews the cost/benefit analysis towards clawing for those extra few percentage points.

Anyong Bluth 07-26-2015 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 11619240)
He's probably right, but it boils down to how highly we should value that extra 5%. Its not a few points to win a few games that no one will remember, its a few points for a world championship that will be treasured forever.

This is absolutely about postseason starts and maybe to a lesser degree playoff seeding. Playoff baseball is such a different animal than the grueling long season.

Of course, I know that you know that.

tk13 07-26-2015 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 11619284)
Mike Shanarat to the Chiefs......:thumb:

Not nearly the same thing, and you know it. Don't be an idiot Pete. I don't know if a deal will get done. But the Reds had two starters warming up last night, and Cueto openly said to the press he was told he's gone. So they are obviously talking about it. If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen, but it's not someone throwing crap against the wall either.

duncan_idaho 07-26-2015 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 11619273)
Cueto has 3 postseason starts, none of which were good and 1 where he left after the first batter. He's a massive upgrade but he isn't going to double our odds or anything drastic


I would call it one good start (not great because he only went 5),one start in which he was hurt, and one terrible start.

Either way, not enough to tell us anything.

milkman 07-26-2015 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 11619287)
You need to consider that there's a small chance we don't make the playoffs, and also a small chance that we don't win the division and have to play the wild card game, and if we get to the LDS round, there are 3 other very good teams on our side of the bracket and then the NL champion. That seems super-obvious and pointless to say, but it really makes a huge difference to our odds, and we're not going to be some kind of enormous 5 to 1 favorite in every series.

Right now the most favorable monte carlo simulations have us at about 15% to win the world series, which is also what the Vegas odds are implying. I don't think Cueto pushes us much past 20%.

That said, I think those extra few points are worth it because the value of winning the world series is so incredibly enormous that it probably skews the cost/benefit analysis towards clawing for those extra few percentage points.

I get it.

But I have to think that an ace improves the odds more than that because, as it's been pointed out numerous times by tk13, teams without an ace simply don't win.

MahiMike 07-26-2015 12:01 PM

I'm seeing multiple sites reporting Cueto is a done deal. So glad to see the Royals striking when the iron is hot.


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