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-   -   Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=293414)

suzzer99 07-16-2015 11:21 PM
Billy Beane has always said the playoffs are a crapshoot. For the most part just winning your division then prey - is the whole game. The Royals look fairly comfortable to do that this year w/o mortgaging any part of their future.

Of course the other biggest argument is what having an ace in a short series with plenty of days off can mean.

:/

SPchief 07-16-2015 11:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 11602987)
My problem with trading Duffy is that we would not be up Cueto. We would be up Cueto and down Duffy, so we are not gaining the full value of an Ace (like we would if we only dealt prospects), we would merely gain whatever is the difference between Duffy and Cueto which is probably about 1 extra inning and 1 fewer run per start. The trade makes more sense if you are convinced that Duffy is going to be crap the rest of the year, but I don't think thats likely.

Our rotation would still be shallow, and our SP problem isn't really "fixed". I also do not believe the lack of an Ace disqualifies you in the playoffs, because we did win the AL last season and almost the whole thing. Some people are traumatized by MadBum, but there are a whole lot of Aces who did not win in the playoffs, a couple of whom we beat.

I may be greedy, but I have to believe we can get 2 months of Cueto by dealing from our farm, and if we can't, I'm not convinced that this move is the best way to improve the team.
Talking about last years run through the playoffs is counting on Duffy, Ventura, Vargas, and Guthrie replicating what they did in last years playoffs. Can you count on that looking at the first half of the year? Cueto isn't a piece for the regular season. It's for the playoffs. And I know his history. I wouldn't make the trade, was just commenting on if that was the offer, duh you make it. Honestly, I think we'll stand pat on the SP aspect with the log jam coming and with Medlin looking decent.

Hootie 07-16-2015 11:31 PM
You'd think Royals fans who are 6 months removed from being Bumgarnered would realize how important an actual ace pitcher could be especially with our defense, park and pen

suzzer99 07-16-2015 11:32 PM
Duffy was out for the playoffs last year. Prime Duffy and I have no doubt we win the WS.

alnorth 07-16-2015 11:35 PM
You also need to factor in that our offense has improved quite a bit this season, so we don't need to count on our pitchers as much as we did.

I also don't think we should be bidding against a phantom. The Reds want to ask for an established pitcher who is on the active roster of a contending team? Fine, they can ask, but that sounds silly to me, because dealing a SP who you are currently counting on from the active 25 man (as opposed to prospects) for another SP is not wise unless your guy is hurt. I don't think they are going to get a taker on that demand from Houston or Toronto, because the improvement would be so very marginal.

Why Not? 07-16-2015 11:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceej (Post 11602945)
Parra please.
I wish

Hootie 07-16-2015 11:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 11603015)
You also need to factor in that our offense has improved quite a bit this season, so we don't need to count on our pitchers as much as we did.

I also don't think we should be bidding against a phantom. The Reds want to ask for an established pitcher who is on the active roster of a contending team? Fine, they can ask, but that sounds silly to me, because dealing a SP who you are currently counting on from the active 25 man (as opposed to prospects) for another SP is not wise unless your guy is hurt. I don't think they are going to get a taker on that demand from Houston or Toronto, because the improvement would be so very marginal.
Offense is never a winning formula in postseason play. It's almost ALWAYS pitching.

tk13 07-16-2015 11:39 PM
It isn't just our last run-in with Bumgarner. The guy has helped win 3 of the last 5 World Series. The two times he didn't, the Cardinals had Chris Carpenter and the Red Sox had Jon Lester dominating. Carpenter went toe-to-toe with with a CG vs. Halladay in a deciding game 5, then pitched 3 of the 7 World Series games. Lester completely dominated the Cardinals in the WS a couple years later.

Every ace pitcher doesn't win, but you usually don't win without an ace pitcher.

alnorth 07-16-2015 11:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11603010)
You'd think Royals fans who are 6 months removed from being Bumgarnered would realize how important an actual ace pitcher could be especially with our defense, park and pen
and how many failed? Jon Lester is one big example. Kershaw's terrible 1st game is another. Heck, the Dodgers had both him and Greinke and didn't make it out of the 1st series.

Anyway, I can understand paying a very high price from our farm, that is what "going for it" really means. The old saying is "prospects are nice, but flags fly forever". Duffy is not a prospect.

You'll find few examples where teams dealt key pieces from the 25 man active roster at the deadline and had it work out for them.

alnorth 07-16-2015 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tk13 (Post 11603021)
Every ace pitcher doesn't win, but you usually don't win without an ace pitcher.
We won the ALCS and took the WS to game 7 with the tying run at 3rd. You can't say "bah, that don't count".

tk13 07-16-2015 11:55 PM
You can go on down the list. The 08 Phillies had Hamels, the 07 Red Sox had Beckett, the 06 Cardinals had Carpenter, although that was some of Dave Duncan's best work. They basically won a title with Carpenter/Suppan/Jeff Weaver. But that's Dave Duncan.

The 05 White Sox swept, but even Mark Buerhle picked up an extra inning save in game 3, after starting game 2.

The 04 Red Sox had Schilling and Pedro. The 03 Marlins beat a Yankees All-Star team on the back of Josh Beckett. Threw a complete game shutout to win the series on short rest.

The 01 D'backs had Johnson/Schilling, beating the Yankee All-Star team. Randy Johnson won game 6, then won game 7 by pitching in relief of Schilling.

tk13 07-17-2015 12:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 11603026)
We won the ALCS and took the WS to game 7 with the tying run at 3rd. You can't say "bah, that don't count".
Who says that doesn't count? We had Yordano Ventura pitching like an ace. And I think he's still our best hope. He has to develop if we're going to win.

He pitched 2 games in the World Series, we won both and he had a 1.46 ERA. We had a good rotation last year. Shields and Guthrie were both on fire the last couple months of the season. Who among our starting pitchers is pitching at that level right now? Volquez is our best bet, but he doesn't have the best playoff history either. He's good, but he's not Keuchel, Sale, Kluber good either. Duffy and Ventura have high-4 ERAs. I agree they can still both turn it around. But if they are pitching like 4.75 ERA pitchers in the playoffs we will probably have an uphill road trying to win with Volquez and Young leading the rotation.

SPchief 07-17-2015 12:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 11603026)
We won the ALCS and took the WS to game 7 with the tying run at 3rd. You can't say "bah, that don't count".
Come on AL. You're smarter than that. I'll still argue I wouldn't make the trade. But I wouldn't be upset about it.

BWillie 07-17-2015 12:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPchief (Post 11602921)
Duffy is only under control for 2 more years. As much as I love the guy, and as much raw talent he has. You make that trade
Only huh?

SPchief 07-17-2015 12:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 11603043)
Only huh?
What has he shown this year that makes you think you can flip him next year?


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