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suzzer99 12-21-2023 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 17292070)
The big thing that we talked about was that Veach can't have complete flops with early draft picks like he did with Breeland Speaks. It's hard to compete when you get nothing from a 2nd rd pick and are paying your QB.

If you can get something from them and have them contribute in some way like Clyde and Hardman, it's not terrible, but getting nothing from Skyy is hurting us

But that 2022 draft class was a gigantic home run overall: Pacheco, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Cook, Chenal, Williams, Watson, even Nazeeh Johnson was showing a lot of promise before the injury this year.

If you ask any GM if they'd take 8 hits and 2 busts, including hits on both 1st rounders, and a top-5-ish NFL RB in the 7th round, they'd take it every time.

O.city 12-21-2023 10:14 AM

People tend to expect too much from the draft.

It's largely a crap shoot.

suzzer99 12-21-2023 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17292020)
If Andy Reid says he doesn't want a guy because of character concerns, that's one thing I would fully trust Andy with.

If Pickens is this bad while he's only in his second year, imagine what a terrible diva he'd turn into if he ever got paid. Unbelievable that the guy is so arrogant/dumb as to not just keep his mouth shut until he gets paid at least.

Chris Meck 12-21-2023 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17292084)
The reality is he was never a good prospect and we talked ourselves into thinking he was.

He profiled as a 3/4 rounder which is where he should have went.

NOBODY had him that low.

That's just not true.

And the reality is, at this point, he maybe shouldn't have been drafted at all. Or maybe late on day 3.

but he was a consensus second rounder.

Chris Meck 12-21-2023 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17292111)
People tend to expect too much from the draft.

It's largely a crap shoot.

While this may largely be true, it's also incredibly important to team building in the salary cap era.

EVERY time you are forced to pay top market price for a player, it weakens your football team overall.

Sometimes you have to do it. Because the draft is an inexact science, to be sure.

But the more you 'hit' on guys in the draft, the more cost controlled talent you have, the less you have to spend in free agency to fill holes.

And if you're paying your QB, you NEED that.

O.city 12-21-2023 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 17292121)
NOBODY had him that low.

That's just not true.

And the reality is, at this point, he maybe shouldn't have been drafted at all. Or maybe late on day 3.

but he was a consensus second rounder.

DJ has brought this up, but it seems alot of that was just the draftnicks on twitter.

Looking back at his profile, it fits more with a 4th rounder than a 2nd. I'm not sure what really happened.

O.city 12-21-2023 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 17292123)
While this may largely be true, it's also incredibly important to team building in the salary cap era.

EVERY time you are forced to pay top market price for a player, it weakens your football team overall.

Sometimes you have to do it. Because the draft is an inexact science, to be sure.

But the more you 'hit' on guys in the draft, the more cost controlled talent you have, the less you have to spend in free agency to fill holes.

And if you're paying your QB, you NEED that.

It doesn't weaken your team if you pay market price for a player and get that production.

The Chiefs paid market price for Pat last year. He played to it and they were the best team in the league. You're too worried about paying guys. That's not the issue.

The problem is paying them and them not playing to it.

You've gotta have cost controlled play somewhere. It doesn't have to come from the draft, but usually that's the easiest place to get it from.

People also need to realize that once you pay one guy (the QB) what we are...you're largely just not going to be able to win SB's unless he plays to that. Now we're getting into the realm where for him to do it it would require guys around him playing at a certain baseline level, which brings up a whole other conversation, but there's not really an alternative. You have to go cheap somewhere. Now, I'd do it somewhere other than weapons, as the value usually matches the pay out there, and not so much at say, off ball Lber or safety.

Chris Meck 12-21-2023 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17292129)
DJ has brought this up, but it seems alot of that was just the draftnicks on twitter.

Looking back at his profile, it fits more with a 4th rounder than a 2nd. I'm not sure what really happened.

this is hindsight.

Obviously NOBODY would take him in the second now.

Chris Meck 12-21-2023 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17292134)
It doesn't weaken your team if you pay market price for a player and get that production.

The Chiefs paid market price for Pat last year. He played to it and they were the best team in the league. You're too worried about paying guys. That's not the issue.

The problem is paying them and them not playing to it.

You've gotta have cost controlled play somewhere. It doesn't have to come from the draft, but usually that's the easiest place to get it from.

People also need to realize that once you pay one guy (the QB) what we are...you're largely just not going to be able to win SB's unless he plays to that. Now we're getting into the realm where for him to do it it would require guys around him playing at a certain baseline level, which brings up a whole other conversation, but there's not really an alternative. You have to go cheap somewhere. Now, I'd do it somewhere other than weapons, as the value usually matches the pay out there, and not so much at say, off ball Lber or safety.

You have to go cheap in lots of places. The very best way to do that is to draft well, as veteran FA's that are cheap are cheap because they've shown themselves to not be worth a lot of money.

We see what ONE good WR and a bunch of crap gets you: Even with Tyreek, we had diminishing returns two years in a row. We were getting worse.

Right now, we have Rice and a bunch of guys who all got significantly worse in their second years in this offense, which is bizarre, but it is what it is.

If you go pay a top of the market free agent WR, you let Jones, Sneed, Danna, and probably Gay walk, and hope you can sign Tranquill and have enough to plug in some veteran DT's that will not equal Jones but hopefully give you positive play.

You can't backload deals, because you've got another group of guys coming up next year.

It's rotating whack-a-mole.

So yeah, the best thing is to be able to draft and fill and not have to pay top free agent deals.

It's incredibly important. Every time you sign a big free agent deal, you create a hole somewhere else. That includes re-signing our own guys, which you absolutely do when they're important players, but you sure better have drafted to fill most of the holes that you create when you have to let others go.

Chris Meck 12-21-2023 10:43 AM

I'm not against paying guys at ALL.

I'm against paying guys top salary when other teams have decided NOT TO. There's a reason for that.

I'd much rather pay the guys we KNOW, and KNOW they fit the system and the culture than guys another team deemed expendable. I don't think MOST big money free agent deals really end up being value signings.

tredadda 12-21-2023 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99 (Post 17292113)
If Pickens is this bad while he's only in his second year, imagine what a terrible diva he'd turn into if he ever got paid. Unbelievable that the guy is so arrogant/dumb as to not just keep his mouth shut until he gets paid at least.

His work ethic is the biggest red flag. Plenty of WRs were divas, but I can’t think of any who had their work ethic questioned. There really is no excuse for it at this level regardless of talent.

O.city 12-21-2023 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 17292156)
You have to go cheap in lots of places. The very best way to do that is to draft well, as veteran FA's that are cheap are cheap because they've shown themselves to not be worth a lot of money.

We see what ONE good WR and a bunch of crap gets you: Even with Tyreek, we had diminishing returns two years in a row. We were getting worse.

Right now, we have Rice and a bunch of guys who all got significantly worse in their second years in this offense, which is bizarre, but it is what it is.

If you go pay a top of the market free agent WR, you let Jones, Sneed, Danna, and probably Gay walk, and hope you can sign Tranquill and have enough to plug in some veteran DT's that will not equal Jones but hopefully give you positive play.

You can't backload deals, because you've got another group of guys coming up next year.

It's rotating whack-a-mole.

So yeah, the best thing is to be able to draft and fill and not have to pay top free agent deals.

It's incredibly important. Every time you sign a big free agent deal, you create a hole somewhere else. That includes re-signing our own guys, which you absolutely do when they're important players, but you sure better have drafted to fill most of the holes that you create when you have to let others go.

They weren't getting worse though BECAUSE of Tyreek. Thats where you miss this whole thing. They traded him and recouped the money and picks, but hindsight, I'm not sure that's the route they go. Had Pat played in 21 like he did last year, with Tyreek, they'd have been 2018 offense level of pain inducing.

Paying elite players is never the issue, it's paying elite price for good players ala FA's usually. It doesn't create a hole, it strengthens a spot theoretically, but it's an unknown. The whole thing is set up to make teams that are good eventually get worse. It's just the league and how its set up. The thing we've gotta continue to do is find cheap value. It's not about one thing, but the whole of it, finding value in guys like Tranquill or a 4th round pick like Sneed.

They've drafted better than just about any team and yet we're still having holes, the issue is anyone thinking you won't have holes. What we need is for the guys we pay and draft to be able to cover the holes. It's a reason I'm hesitant to pay a Bolton or a Gay too much, because that position just makes it tough for them to really bring alot of value. Again, IMO.

RunKC 12-21-2023 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17292084)
The reality is he was never a good prospect and we talked ourselves into thinking he was.

He profiled as a 3/4 rounder which is where he should have went.

Decent prospect at the combine in terms of athleticism and size. 5'10" 195, elite 10 yard burst, big hands and was versatile.

He just never translated. The game was too big for him IMO

Chris Meck 12-21-2023 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17292171)
They weren't getting worse though BECAUSE of Tyreek.

No, this is where you're unable to see the bigger picture.

Were they getting worse because of Tyreek the player? No of course not, he's a great player.

They were getting worse because of the cap investments in players like Tyreek, Clark, Mattheiu and now Reid, Thuney, OBJ all required that the team go cheaper elsewhere, which leads to lack of depth and having guys like Sorensen and Niemann, and Wylie taking meaningful snaps and a WR room of JAGS behind Hill.

We were spread too thin. So you have to spend multiple high picks on LB'ers, and DE, and the secondary and meanwhile you've got a WR room in need of fresh talent, and no OT's and...

Some of those guys were worth the money, some weren't-and THAT is how free agency works. This idea that past production with another team guarantees the same level or greater of future production is fantasy.

Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't-and sometimes it does for a while, and then by the end, you're overpaying.

So just like the draft, it's a risk/reward roll of the dice.

In '22, we took a HUGE chance on 5 rookie DB's. By the end of the season (and this year) it's a strength of the team. That's how it CAN go.

In '23, we took a HUGE chance on three young WR's, and only one has panned out. That's also how it CAN go.

In both cases, they were risks we had to take. In hindsight, you can pick around and choose slightly different paths, but those are just as big of a risk.

We could be losing games 42-35. A lot of people would prefer that.

JohnnyHammersticks 12-23-2023 06:00 PM

195 yds and 2 TDs in the 1st half. From Mason Rudolph.

Has he surpassed Skyy’s season totals in one half? Gotta be close.


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