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duncan_idaho 07-17-2015 08:49 AM

Still a lot of Duffy talk (did I do that?). I'm not 100 percent sure that's still the discussion (it's been 10 days since I was told that, and that's an eternity in trade talks), but it makes sense to me from Cincinnati's end that they'd prefer a ready-for-2016 arm to a prospect with more control/upside.

Anyway, here's what the team is thinking, IMO, IF it trades Duffy:

1) Foremost, he's never going to consistently be the pitcher he was in 2014. If they thought this, they'd never consider moving him.

2) He's more easily replaced than a Raul Adalberto Mondesi. This is probably true. With Ventura under contract long-term, Manaea, Zimmer, Almonte, Lamb and Finnegan all close, they have enough to feel reasonably comfortable on getting at least one more decent SP out of the system in the upcoming seasons ... and maybe finding a star... and maybe finding two.

3) Yordano Ventura is a high-maintenance SP, who needs some kid gloves treatment (apparently, at this point). Duffy falls into this category, too. Having two of those - and building your long-term rotation plan on two guys like that - might seem dangerous.

I'm a big Duffy fan. I've defended him a lot. I still think he has great upside. This move would hurt, but I'd understand it if they made it.

And to be honest, I still think Cueto's actual value will end up looking something like Zack Greinke's in 2012: Top 50-75 prospect, and a couple of talented but flawed 100-200 types.

I'd much rather make a deal involving Miguel Almonte, Finnegan, and a not-Mondesi/Zimmer/Manaea-piece than anything else.

duncan_idaho 07-17-2015 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thurman merman (Post 11603216)
My thoughts from the NWA game last night:

1) Raul Mondesi looks really good. Hitting, defense, baserunning - it looks like he has all the tools. He also laid down a perfect sacrifice bunt, so he'll be great for Ned.
2) Terrance Gore is incredibly fast. I can't wait till this guy gets back up just so we can watch him run the bases again. He bunted for a hit and beat the throw by about a full second.
3) Cody Reed got shelled, but he showed some good stuff. He retired the first 10 batters and then collapsed after that. He was hitting 95-96 consistently. I noticed him hit 97 at least once.
4) Bubba Starling had a great night. He had two hard-hit doubles into the gap and showed good speed.

Working in reverse order...

Bubba really is showing encouraging signs this season, and I don't think the prospect guys have caught up to it yet. The dip in K rate is the big one... he was a career 32 percent whiff guy entering the season, but has dropped that 6 percent overall and 8 percent in NWA (while stepping up a level, that's impressive).

Here's an interesting recent report on him from a long-time scout. Good read and says some good things about his dedication and effort. I read stuff like this (and hear stuff like this) and no longer believe the Royals have to worry about losing this kid to Nebraska football.

I was expecting something much worse than 5 IP, 3 ER when you said Reed got shelled. Not a great start but not completely terrible, either. Good to hear those reports on his stuff... What to watch for here is him improving at working through a lineup a few times. He dominated the Cardinals lineup the first time through the order... but is now working against more talented guys who are better at adjusting. Looks like that's what happened to him here (and that Mondesi error set up everything in the fiffh).

Gore is a monster on the bases. If he can consistently place bunts and scratch out the ability to get on base at a .330 clip, he can be a decent 5th OF who is a real weapon off the bench.

Mondesi is such a toolsy guy... He has the ABILITY to be the best position player the Royals farm system has produced under Dayton Moore... A Carlos Beltran-like-type impact guy from SS (less power, more speed).

Quote:

Originally Posted by thurman merman (Post 11603220)
So he probably won't actually pitch, right?

I imagine he's the long guy out of the pen. They have Volquez and Young slated to pitch today, so he isn't an emergency starter or anything like that.

Might see Yost try to go quick hook on Volquez today, since he's taking the brunt of the turnaround pain from this DH.

Sure-Oz 07-17-2015 09:09 AM

@McCulloughStar: Kris Medlen likely won't be activated until Monday, Ned Yost says. He is going to pitch out of the bullpen.

BigCatDaddy 07-17-2015 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz (Post 11603239)
@McCulloughStar: Kris Medlen likely won't be activated until Monday, Ned Yost says. He is going to pitch out of the bullpen.

Why stretch him out as a starter in the minors to use in a loaded pen?

Mama Hip Rockets 07-17-2015 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 11603232)
I was expecting something much worse than 5 IP, 3 ER when you said Reed got shelled. Not a great start but not completely terrible, either. Good to hear those reports on his stuff... What to watch for here is him improving at working through a lineup a few times. He dominated the Cardinals lineup the first time through the order... but is now working against more talented guys who are better at adjusting. Looks like that's what happened to him here (and that Mondesi error set up everything in the fiffh).

Yeah, it seemed like he unraveled after the error. He gave up three more hits and threw a wild pitch before getting out of the inning. So, after retiring the first 10 batters, he gave up 2 homers, 7 hits, a walk, a wild pitch, and 7 runs (3 earned) in 1.2 IP. That's a pretty good shelling.

Mama Hip Rockets 07-17-2015 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy (Post 11603253)
Why stretch him out as a starter in the minors to use in a loaded pen?

Yeah, this makes no sense. Their rotation has the 12th best ERA in the AL. Get somebody fresh in there.

C3HIEF3S 07-17-2015 09:33 AM

@McCulloughStar: Jason Vargas will start on Tuesday against Pittsburgh. The team will determine who gets punted from the rotation sometime next week.

C3HIEF3S 07-17-2015 09:36 AM

Can't get the other to embed on my phone, but McCullough says Lamb is only up for today. Ned said he's the best arm in Omaha and the team wanted to reward him.

C3HIEF3S 07-17-2015 09:38 AM

So it's either Guthrie or Young going to the pen. I bet Blanton gets DFA'd (is he out of options?) and Young goes to the pen for the time being.

duncan_idaho 07-17-2015 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy (Post 11603253)
Why stretch him out as a starter in the minors to use in a loaded pen?

They're trying to protect the investment they've made in Medlen for next season. They really want him in the starting rotation, and do that, he needs innings this season.

He's also their 6th or 7th starter right now. There's no guarantee Vargas stays healthy, and the rotation has had so many issues this season, you might need that depth.

You can always shorten a guy's stints if you don't need him to start. Much more difficult to stretch him out.

Unsmooth-Moment 07-17-2015 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S (Post 11603278)
So it's either Guthrie or Young going to the pen. I bet Blanton gets DFA'd (is he out of options?) and Young goes to the pen for the time being.

May need to be Chris Young so he doesn't get burnt out again before September.

tk13 07-17-2015 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu (Post 11603202)
Shields sucked in the playoffs. Volquez will almost assuredly be better. Guthrie is pitching pretty well right now and is not showing much drop off, if any, from last season.

I don't care much about ERAs with the starting pitchers on this team. The reason is that the guys with the low ERAs eat lots of innings, while ours are not doing that so much right now. But for this team, especially in the playoffs, an innings eater is almost irrelevant because we are not going to hide our bullpen. We want to feature our bullpen. If any one of our guys pitches to the lead after 5 or 6 innings, we are most likely winning that game.

We don't need a starter who can then pitch the 7th and 8th because those spots are already on lockdown. It would be nice for a starter to do that, but we don't NEED it. Which is why I don't think trading Duffy for Cueto gives us much, if any, benefit or gain. If Cueto goes 7 innings and two runs but Duffy only goes 6 innings for two runs we have not gained much, if anything, by losing Duffy.

Obviously though if we can get Cueto without losing any MLB guys that is fine. I just don't think we will do that because GMDM is going to continue to trust his process and the moves he made, specifically that Medlen will be like our trade for a starting pitcher.

It's not about going 7 or 8 innings. I agree this team is built to use the bullpen in the playoffs. Eating innings is only important during the regular season so the bullpen is well rested for the playoffs.

But you still need a starter who can go 6 or 7 and match up with the other team's ace. Shields didn't pitch great, and we didn't win it all. That's exactly my point. Although to Shields' credit he grinded through the clinching game of the ALDS, and had a strong game against Bumgarner in Game 5... we just got completely shut down on offense.

If you think Duffy is going to give us 6 IP and 2 runs every time out in the playoffs, I agree, we shouldn't trade him. That's the million dollar question. If Duffy and Ventura are pitching closer to 5 ERA guys and giving us 5 innings and 3 runs every time out, it's going to be tougher.

kcchiefsus 07-17-2015 10:08 AM

Medlen goes to the pen. Meanwhile, our starting rotation still sucks.

Unsmooth-Moment 07-17-2015 10:12 AM

I hope we get to see Lamb pitch at some point today.

alnorth 07-17-2015 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy (Post 11603253)
Why stretch him out as a starter in the minors to use in a loaded pen?

I really don't get it either. I thought the whole idea was to sign him and hope he can replace whoever failed in the 1st half, I did not think we were signing a late-season relief pitcher who might start in 2016.


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