Saul Good |
05-01-2011 09:27 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
(Post 7612248)
I'm calling it now: Minnesota and Chicago are both out. The AL Central is Cleveland's to win, with Detroit and KC chasing them.
Since the 1930's, 246 teams were 6 or more games back by May 1. 5 of those teams came back to win their division. (~2%) The Twins and White Sox aren't 6 games back, they are TEN freaking games back. It is really tough to get that far back by the end of April.
I don't think KC wins this division, but lets suppose Cleveland ends up not being as good as they look now and start losing games? In that case, our division ends up being completely terrible and 84 games might win it. Throw in some key callups after the all-star break, and who the hell knows.
|
One thing that we have going for us is that Davies is so terrible. Replacing him with one of the youngsters immediately makes us a markedly improved team day 1. The guy is one of the worst starting pitchers in the history of the game, and we are above .500 while running him out there every five days.
This team has about a 1 in 5 chance of winning the division, IMO. Cleveland is legit, but they will come back to earth a bit at some point. Our rotation could include Mazzaro, Duffy, Lamb, and Montgomery at some point this season, and our lineup will include Hosmer.
What if Cleveland comes back to Earth? What if Hosmer comes up and rakes? What if our rotation is Hochevar, Montgomery, Lamb, Mazzaro, and Duffy? What if Escobar starts hitting just a little bit?
If our infield becomes Betemit, Escobar, Aviles, and Hosmer, I think that's just enough punch to work. Escobar's glove is phenomenal, and Hosmer's defense should make up for below-average gloves at second and third.
If we play 2 games under .500 from now until June 1st, I don't think it's that far-fetched to hope that we could be a better team the last 4 months of the season.
|