How often does a 4-game winner get the #1 pick? (and whats the distribution of teams for that unlikely scenario?)

My simulator isn't really set up to answer this question easily, but a 4 win team will get the #1 pick in roughly 6% of the seasons, with Oakland the most likely team to be in this situation.

Carr just helped us a bit.

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Eagels- 3-9 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT


Updated

The Panthers are shit as well so Oak might sneak a win in there.


In the end tho, we've come to far to **** up now. Just swallow that pill and lose out.

Shawn Zobel ‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Current 2013 NFL Draft order following today's games: 1. Kansas City, 2. Jacksonville, 3. Oakland, 4. Philadelphia, 5. Carolina

Is MJD coming back this year?

Not sure but i really think they can beat the Jets at home this week.

Calling it now Oakland beats Denver Thursday night.

That would be very, very good news.

We should still be concerned about Jacksonville, but if we both won a game, Oakland would be our biggest threat.

We just need to lose out.


Which is quite possible. Need to just sit Flowers, DJ and Lewis the rest of the way out.

What?! The true fans are just starting to have fun. Imagine how great it would feel to win another game or two. Would make the team feel good about themselves.

The more you hear and see over the losing seasons, the more this fan base deserves what it gets. Sucks for us though. People just don't really care if we win a SB. It would be nice, but not at the expense of fun on the NEXT game day.

Brad Pitt, Moneyball, trade deadline scene:

(about Geno Smith) Oh, I want this one bad....

Zobel is a moron but I hope he gets this right.

For the first time all season, I've got a bad feeling. Bad as in the Chiefs choose Te'o with like the 4th pick and Glennon in the second round.

Ugh.

I will not be happy. Taking an ILB in the top 10 is a mistake IMO.

Drafting Glennon as your franchise QB would be a mistake as well.