He wasn't rehabbing Tues night. Now you get my point. I assume.

It doesn't make sense to me either. We have Duffy for THIS YEAR AND TWO MORE YEARS. I find it odd that people cite this season as the reason they want to get rid of Duffy. His results this year are a drop in the bucket compared to the 150 IP he pitched last year at a 2.5 ERA. He hasn't even been left in the rotation and allowed to get into any grove yet either. His ERA is only 4.6 this year as it is.

When I look at baseball, I look at probabilities. Even if you get Cueto, your odds of winning the World Series really don't go up enough. It's the law of diminishing returns. If you have a 15% chance to win the WS without Cueto, and you trade Duffy and all these prospects for him, your WS chance might go up to say 20%. That's not enough value to gain a negligible chance of winning it all. Never put your eggs in once basket. If the right trade comes about, go for it, but I would keep in mind this year AND the next two years when doing it.

Yes, aces don't add a ton of probability to your odds.

No, Danny Duffy isn't that valuable a commodity.

I don't think anyone WANTS to trade Duffy. People have just discussed the possibility.

I guarantee you that if he IS moved, it's because the team doesn't believe he can consistently produce the way he did last season.

His results THIS season matter because they're similar to the results he produced as a big-leaguer prior to 2014. Because it's another dip in the roller coaster track... and because they're a sign that, perhaps, Duffy is going to do this for the rest of his career.

If Duffy is considered to be worth trading at some point because he doesn't have the stuff to be the starter KC needs....

.... what if they made him into Wade Davis II: Bearded Boogaloo?

Trading for Cueto might only take your odds from 15% to 20%, but dropping the Duffman does the same. So net/net you prob go from 10% to 20% in that scenario

I love Cueto and would be fine with us trading for him but I'm kinda more intrigued by trying to swing a Shields/Upton combo deal....if that's even possible...

....
@goldbergkc: Alex Gordon is here. Started laser treatment & walking on pool treadmill during break. Says w/huge grin that starts upper body lifting today

I would also think he pitches late if we are up by 8 or 9 runs.

We are not 100% guaranteed to win when he starts and we are not 100% guaranteed to lose when his replacement starts. Also, you don't improve our game 2 and 3 situation at all.

Now, if we had a stable of pretty good pitchers but nobody is great, lets say 3 or 4 guys who can give you a decent or pretty good start, then swapping one for an Ace makes a whole lot more sense.

We don't have that. We have maybe 2 acceptable pitchers right now. If you make this trade, then if Cueto doesn't win every single damned time he starts, we're toast because game 3 probably looks bad unless we're matched against another team with SP problems. We need Duffy or someone like him for game 3 to give us a chance every time out.

Brewers willing to trade Carlos Gomez per Jon Heyman. Makes 8 mill this year...9 mill next year.

I don't think he understands that "tearing" a hamstring or "tearing" a groin is different than breaking a bone.

For the sake of argument I'm even willing to forget about the next two years, but people are acting like we have 4 Danny Duffy's and we can upgrade one of them. We don't.

If we trade Danny for Cueto, then how do we win game 3 or 6? We need to ADD someone, not REPLACE Duffy.

What are you talking about?

Would Danny Duffy even make our postseason rotation?

A rotation of :

Cueto / Volquez / Ventura / WHOEVER

is a hell of a lot better than

Volquez / Ventura / WHOEVER / WHOEVER

...and you're totally discounting the fact that Cueto, with our defense, is the best pitcher the Royals have seen since Greinke won his Cy Young, and before that, since the Royals of the 80's.

Cueto, with our defense and ballpark, is legitimately a guy who could carry our team if our sporadic offense wasn't clicking for 3 games in a 7 game series (a la Bumgarner).

Not only that, but the dude is a 1/2 season rental and would be a lock to go 7-8 innings, if not 9, every start. He's done it the last 5 years in Cincy playing in a HR derby park.

...if the price is Danny Duffy and Brandon Finnegan (and it's not, it's going to take a WHOLE LOT MORE), this isn't even a question. It's the biggest no brainer trade I've ever seen.

Yup. Having Vargas, Young, or Guthrie start a game in New York or Houston could be pretty scary.