Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11621877)

8 years ago, I was probably one of the 10 best slow pitch softball players in my area. Fast forward to today ... I am still a hell of a fielder but I'm not 9 weeks in and I still haven't ****ing hit anything other than a god damn pop up or rolled over a pitch to 1st base. It's ****ing terrible. I'm a head case. If you don't think some of these hitters like Hosmer who are prone to huge slumps aren't giant head cases, then you're insane. This is why I predicted guys like Hosmer and Moose would be exponentially better this year. They are extremely talented guys ... but Moose every single year had such a terrible April he pressed constantly to get out of it. When you look at your stat line every day and you're a .180 hitter 35 games in and you're a young guy who's career is suddenly in jeopardy, you press.

Last postseason erased that doubt from Mike Moustakas ... and suddenly he's a .300 hitter with an .800 OPS and already has more hits this year than all of last year.

Talent gets you so far ... but you also need confidence. Swagger is a real thing.

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11621877)

8 years ago, I was probably one of the 10 best slow pitch softball players in my area. Fast forward to today ... I am still a hell of a fielder but I'm not 9 weeks in and I still haven't ****ing hit anything other than a god damn pop up or rolled over a pitch to 1st base. It's ****ing terrible. I'm a head case. If you don't think some of these hitters like Hosmer who are prone to huge slumps aren't giant head cases, then you're insane. This is why I predicted guys like Hosmer and Moose would be exponentially better this year. They are extremely talented guys ... but Moose every single year had such a terrible April he pressed constantly to get out of it. When you look at your stat line every day and you're a .180 hitter 35 games in and you're a young guy who's career is suddenly in jeopardy, you press.

Last postseason erased that doubt from Mike Moustakas ... and suddenly he's a .300 hitter with an .800 OPS and already has more hits this year than all of last year.

Talent gets you so far ... but you also need confidence. Swagger is a real thing.

Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 11621669)

I used to be more of a supporter for the run differential stat. But, I think in baseball it can be flawed.

High OBP, high K guys feast on garbage pitching. They feast on the #5 guy, long relief, or chodes you just put in when you are down and probably going to lose the game. These situations, they matter less. In the playoffs, you don't even see the #5 guy, so the fat high OBP guy doesn't get to feast upon these pitchers in the playoffs. Usually teams with shitty starting pitching, don't make the playoffs anyway, so this further skews the numbers.

This basically allows these players and teams to produce some gaudy looking numbers, when these other teams basically, in layman's terms, aren't trying their hardest and are saving their closers, set up man, and #1s and #2s for games that actually matter.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 11621891)

Prove that it erased the doubt from Moustakas, then.

When I see Moustakas I see a guy who tries to make contact more than last year, so he K's a little less. He hits the same number of balls hard this year compared to last. His isolated power is the same. His walk rate is the same. His line drive rate is the same.

The only thing Moustakas has changed is that he's less pull happy. It's made him a more complete hitter, but certainly not a more powerful one. That's not a change due to confidence, that's a change in approach.

It's also an example of why saying "I've watched 90 Royals games" is largely meaningless. You can look at a guy through 350 at bats and claim that he's a completely different player when the data demonstrates that he is now using all fields and that (in part because he's hitting to all fields) he isn't hitting into rat shit luck to the tune of a .220 BABIP.

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 11621900)

You've been silent so far on the "3 starter vs 5 starter" debate. Where do you fall? Do you see the distinction or are you like me that it's itrelevant?

Originally Posted by Brainiac (Post 11621833)

It doesn't matter what the cause of the slump is. He was pitching great earlier in the year, and he's pitching like garbage now. He needs to go to the bullpen because Guthrie is outperforming him.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 11621905)

I don't even know what you're talking about.

Originally Posted by suzzer99 (Post 11620907)

At this point I'm more worried about some other team getting hot and beating us in the playoffs.

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 11621913)

Ok. Do you think there's a difference between a 3 and a 5 starter or do you think they're essentially indistinguishable as they get the same number of starts?

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 11621913)

Ok. Do you think there's a difference between a 3 and a 5 starter or do you think they're essentially indistinguishable as they get the same number of starts?

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 11621922)

Their expectations are completely different. A #3 starter is expected to be a better than league average pitcher. They will go deeper into games, too. They'll face more batters and thus have a bigger outcome on the team's success per start. A #5 starter is going to be, on average, one of the 30 worst starters in the league. They will give up more runs and work shorter outings. They put the team in worse positions and tax the bullpen harder on average.

Morever, many teams use off days as a way to skip the #5 if possible. Fives are also almost completely worthless in the postseason, as they are used either as long relief, mop up duty, or extra innings games only.

The difference between a #3 and a #5 in a H2H matchup may only be 5%, but when you multiply that by 34 starts it can make the difference between making the postseason or not.

Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 11621935)

So, you would probably also agree that you shouldn't bat your 9th best OPS guy in the #1 spot either, since he will get more plate appearances at the expense of others who are more deserving?

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 11621948)

Is he the worst OPS guy because he has no power, but he still gets on base a lot, or is he Omar Infante?

If I was making the Royals lineup, it would probably go like this (assuming health)

Gordon
Cain
Hosmer
Morales
Moustakas
Perez
Escobar
Rios
Infante

Although you could probably put 6,7,8 in any order you choose. Nevertheless, Infante is a terrible hitter and you should give him as few opportunities as possible.