I can’t believe people are in here giving up on an 8-4 team led by Reid and Mahomes.

You don’t deserve this run we’ve had.

You obviously haven't been a fan of KC for very long if you believe this.

Offensive DVOA is worth looking at but it has some serious flaws and one of the flaws explains why Chiefs offense is overrated this year by offense DVOA. It doesn't reward offenses and QB's who minimize penalties on offense.

Mahomes often holding the ball for a long time and rolling out has its major advantages...he is a little more likely to complete the ball and make pass completions and less likely to have to throw it away or toss up a 50/50 ball or throw into tight windows. He can also run for 25+ yards. But by holding the ball longer and leaving the pocket, he is more likely all things being equal -- and they often aren't -- to have his offensive lineman commit holding penalties or teammates commit other penalties on offense that DVOA ignores in its calculations.

And the Chiefs usually do a great job with their offense in avoiding silly penalties that are not somewhat forced by opponents but all things being equal, the Reid system is probably more likely to get penalties with all of the presnap motions.

Offensive DVOA also may not do a good enough job in all likelihood of rewarding teams with the ability to score in the red zone. Some teams have the personnel to do it rather consistently, others do not.

Seriously how the **** can Lane Johnson keep doing this but Jawaan Taylor can't?

He's still doing it and they aren't calling it!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We also see this on tape �� <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/tlw5OqMsOD">pic.twitter.com/tlw5OqMsOD</a> <a href="https://t.co/PzoRf86tvV">https://t.co/PzoRf86tvV</a></p>&mdash; ʟᴇᴇᴍ �� (@RunHurts) <a href="https://twitter.com/RunHurts/status/1732907613162025013?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Do you consider the Bills a top 5 offense? Because we're favored to beat them this weekend. Vegas sees this game as two evenly matched teams, with a slight edge to KC since we're at home.

DVOA
KC: 4 offense, 9 defense
BUF: 3 offense, 16 defense

Yards Per Game
KC: 8
BUF: 4

Points Per Game
KC: 11
BUF: 5

DVOA is much, much more predictive than YPG or PPG, which don't factor in strength of opponent or end-of-game situations.

I remember when Andy Reid put out the blueprint for neutralizing nic bosa. Let him charge up field then dump it off by him. That was such a good game last year.

I actually do consider the Bills a top 5 offense but I don't consider the Chiefs a top 5 offense. However, I'm not impressed by any defense that gives up 29 points to Mac Jones and the Patriots like Buffalo did. I doubt the Bills right now even have a top 20 defense so that is the Chiefs possible path to victory.

DVOA is better than YPG and PPG in isolation but its flaws are still big enough that I trust my eye test and common sense much more than it. Chiefs haven't had 4th best offense this year and the defense has been a little underrated so far by DVOA.

YPG can obviously be garbage since a team playing from behind against a prevent defense may rack up yard et cetera. Jameis Winston threw for over 5000 yards in 2019-20 but if in order to do that, he threw up 30 picks, chances are many of those picks are putting defense in awful position and not just 3rd down punts.

If a defense or special teams is literally scoring points or forcing a ton of turnovers, it obviously makes PPG even less meaningful if the quality of the oppenents are held constant.

Quality of opponents is tricky enough that even there DVOA can only do so much in truthfully capturing it. Injuries can make huge differences. Facing 49ers without their left tackle and without Deebo Samuel is a hell of a lot easier than when those 2 are playing. Vita Vea wasn't Aaron Donald but the Bucs defense with Vita Vea in the Bucs Super Bowl season was much better than defense without him. Chiefs offense did great in that first game not just because Bucs singled Hill but because Vea didn't even play.

Taylor hasn't been that bad (minus the penalties) but the Chiefs can get out from under the Taylor deal after next year. His cap hit this year is only $6 million. Yeah, we're stuck with him for next year at $24 mil., but then he can be cut and we can save $15 mil. against the cap in 2025 (there's a little dead money), so not even close to the worst FA signing in KC history.

The only 'impact' we'll feel from his deal is next year and then the Chiefs can move on if they so choose.

****. ****. ****.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Isiah Pacheco is again absent from practice field now as Chiefs complete their practice week. Looking more like he won&#39;t play against Bills on Sunday.</p>&mdash; Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) <a href="https://twitter.com/adamteicher/status/1733182562896433338?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

DVOA indirectly accounts for holding calls because it judges the success of each play based on down and distance. So a 2nd and 20 is treated differently than 2nd and 10. False starts and delay of game penalties are directly accounted for, on the other hand.

I'd say injuries are the big wild card with these advanced statistics. Those are basically impossible to account for.

Doubt Pacheco goes on Sunday. CEH needs to step up.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Did not spot Isiah Pacheco at practice for third straight day (shoulder). Andy Reid speaks to reporters in about an hour.</p>&mdash; Jesse Newell (@jessenewell) <a href="https://twitter.com/jessenewell/status/1733183040522727822?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I’m just confident. There’s zero teams on the AFC side that I think can beat us in a one off at Arrowhead. When the lights are the brightest. We’ve been there, done that…. Over and over. Season is a bit off, but it is with every team. Fluke wins/losses happen. We still have the best team in the AFC and probably the league. None of those teams are ready for playoff KC.

I totally understand what you’re saying though, and I don’t wanna leave. Don’t really want FallCaller to go either. But I’ll stick to my guns, as I’ve already said it.

the guys to worry about are kincaid & Shakir. Diggs going to get his but their new OC is spreading the ball around. Davis is their 5th option these days.

Thanks Diqlix!

Bills are getting Dawson Knox back from injury as well. Chiefs banged up, bills getting healthy.