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KevB 07-27-2015 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11622906)
I'll tell you what ... Yesterday I picked Toronto as the 2nd wild card. Today? I predict a collapse

I think what's scary is if they have that offense and then also go add some pitching. I can't imagine they did this without also having a line on a pitching upgrade. I still love our team, nothing any other team does will change that. But Tulo is a pretty big upgrade on Reyes at this point. He looked like a shell of his former self earlier this year at the K.

duncan_idaho 07-27-2015 11:20 PM

It could be enough for them to bash their way through the AL East, though. That lineup is going to play extremely well in all of the AL East parks EXCEPT for Tampa.

The Yankees have better SP at the 1-2 spots and a much better bullpen, but other than that, there isn't really a rotation in that division that is better than theirs.

They are, however, 7 games back from the Yankees. That's a lot to make up this point but not insurmountable.

It would suck to make this type of deal, though, and end up in a one-game wildcard facing Dallas Keuchel...

tk13 07-27-2015 11:22 PM

Yeah I think an even bigger concern is this might actually wake up the Yankees. I don't want them getting Kimbrel. They would actually be able to move their closer, Miller, to the 7th inning and go Miller/Betances/Kimbrel. They could at least match our bullpen every step of the way.

'Hamas' Jenkins 07-27-2015 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 11622918)
It could be enough for them to bash their way through the AL East, though. That lineup is going to play extremely well in all of the AL East parks EXCEPT for Tampa.

The Yankees have better SP at the 1-2 spots and a much better bullpen, but other than that, there isn't really a rotation in that division that is better than theirs.

They are, however, 7 games back from the Yankees. That's a lot to make up this point but not insurmountable.

It would suck to make this type of deal, though, and end up in a one-game wildcard facing Dallas Keuchel...


I'd like to know what minor leaguers Toronto gave up, because they should have been elite prospects. Reyes is basically an average starting shortstop now who derives almost all his value from the basepaths, which will continue to decline. He's already below average as a defender.

It makes Toronto's offense even more terrifying, and in a one game playoff they could just bludgeon Keuchel.

If those aren't three B+ to A- prospects then it's just a salary dump.

Hootie 07-27-2015 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13 (Post 11622921)
Yeah I think an even bigger concern is this might actually wake up the Yankees. I don't want them getting Kimbrel. They would actually be able to move their closer, Miller, to the 7th inning and go Miller/Betances/Kimbrel. They could at least match our bullpen every step of the way.

For sure ... but the O's had Britton, Miller and O'day last year. Our SP > the Yankees with Cueto.

Miller / Betances and Kimbrel would make our bullpen look pedestrian lolol

tk13 07-27-2015 11:30 PM

Rosenthal alluded to this on MLB Network. Wasn't sure Tulo knew this was coming. Not sure how well that was going to go over.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rockies?src=hash">#Rockies</a> owner Dick Monfort had told Tulo that he would not be traded A) w/o being consulted and B) to place he didn’t want to go.</p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/625900608499896321">July 28, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

KevB 07-27-2015 11:30 PM

Morosi saying Daniel Norris isn't in the deal

Hootie 07-27-2015 11:32 PM

Tulo has never had jaw dropping road splits ... super meh

KevB 07-27-2015 11:32 PM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Miguel Castro likely going to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rockies?src=hash">#Rockies</a> in the Tulowitzki blockbuster, source says. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></p>&mdash; Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/625901240086499328">July 28, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

duncan_idaho 07-27-2015 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 11622923)
I'd like to know what minor leaguers Toronto gave up, because they should have been elite prospects. Reyes is basically an average starting shortstop now who derives almost all his value from the basepaths, which will continue to decline. He's already below average as a defender.

It makes Toronto's offense even more terrifying, and in a one game playoff they could just bludgeon Keuchel.

If those aren't three B+ to A- prospects then it's just a salary dump.

Yeah, apparently Norris is not in the deal, and it would be hard to believe Toronto has traded Pompey since he's a local hero and all that.

Sean Reid-Foley is probably a top 75 type, but that's not enough to headline the deal. Jeff Hoffman also falls into that category. Richard Urena might make sense to be involved... 19-year-old holding his own at AA who has the glove to stick at SS and surprising pop.

BWillie 07-27-2015 11:36 PM

Blue Jays line up is just nuts. I hope they dont get some pitching to go along with it. Hope Cueto goes in there and just pitches a CG shut out. How great would that be

'Hamas' Jenkins 07-27-2015 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11622912)
The angels and Orioles both had fantastic offenses last year and what happened to them when it cooled down and October rolled around? Pitching and defense wins postseason baseball. Not a lineup full of HR hitters. Now, Tulo absolutely is a better defensive SS than Reyes. It's an upgrade, but scares me very little

This is commonly cited and pretty much completely wrong. The 2013 Red Sox had average starting pitching and hammered their way to a WS. The 2013 Cardinals were extremely similar. The 2011 Cardinals and Rangers were carried by monstrous offenses.

The Giants had an offense in the top third last year and 7th in 2012.

Of the last 10 teams to appear in the WS, here are their league ranks in wRC:

2010: 13, 14
2011: 3, 5
2012 14, 5
2013: 1, 4
2014: 13, 17

That's an average ranking of 8.9/30. The worst team to appear in the WS in the last five years had no worse than a league average offense.

Offense absolutely matters.

Meanwhile, here are the team rankings by FIP:

2010: 3, 22
2011: 8, 16
2012: 4, 9
2013: 2, 16
2014: 10, 14

Average pitching was rated 10.7/30

Offense matters every bit as much as pitching.

BWillie 07-27-2015 11:39 PM

You know what, **** the Blue Jays. Do they have six guys with 10 or more HRs like deez Royals? Hell no.

cmh6476 07-27-2015 11:41 PM

joe Blanton will probably end up a blue jay

Hootie 07-27-2015 11:43 PM

I'll look it up tomorrow when I'm off my phone ... I'm not talking about regular season numbers. When the postseason hits, pitching wins. Even if it's mediocre guys throwing surprising gems. Someone tried telling me the 2005 Sox had average pitching and won a WS the other day. Um, they went 11-1 in the playoffs and won because of absolutely dominant starting pitching.


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