:thumb:

Straight statistical analysis will never be able to account fully for the mental aspect of the game, and therefore it becomes a circular argument.

Prove that Moose's mind ****ing hurt his numbers last year!!! Well...

Dude hadn't seen the shift all spring training, and then the season starts. And the shift is all that he sees. He goes for ****ing ever before getting a hit, and then he's gripping for the majority of the year.

Yeah, his approach is different this year, but success (such as the post-season success he enjoyed last year) makes it easier for players to be willing to change. Sounds strange, I know, but when the wheels fall the **** off, like it did for him last year, he's going back to what has always made him successful, and that's pull, pull, pull.

If you haven't played sports (and this is magnified if you have never played at a high level), I don't think you can have a full appreciation for the mental component.

You can't even read or lie worth a shit. Are the baby steps that ****ing hard?

Here's what I said to your claim that "confidence made him a better player."

So, you are either incapable of understanding what I posted or you just make shit up in an attempt to change the narrative.

Your claim was that confidence made him a better hitter. I asked for evidence, you provided none.

My claim was that he became less pull happy, which is what led to the uptick in his BA and BABIP. I provided hard data. It also indicated that he isn't hitting the ball any harder or seeing it much better (same walk rate, same BB profile).

Again, show me where Moustakas' confidence plays into this, or shut the **** up.

:thumb:

This is completely wrong. You know what people often due when they encounter issues? They change. Why do you think that batters in slumps change aspects of their swings? Why do you think that Tiger Woods is on yet another swing coach?

Not only does your claim lack any hard data, it relies on a post-hoc fallacy, and it's also rebutted by observational evidence of athlete upon athlete who doesn't do that.

Great post. Luck is a part of baseball, time to accept it.

You believe that bat angle or timing mechanisms are the same as approach for an individual who holds (held?) a record for home runs in CA?

Feel free to dismiss the impact of the post-season by claiming logical fallacy. Not going to waste time engaging in this debate because I agree that there isn't going to be "hard data" to support such claims.

"Scouts eye" folks are no diff from anyone else: they seek confirmation bias for their own views. Take Paul Goldschmidt: no scout liked him and he was never even a top-10 org prospect for AZ. Has killed everything since AA with no major slumps. Scouts totally missed him and they never bring him up.

By the way, Hosmer, who has struggled mightily at points in his ML career and is one of Moose's best friends, is also rumored to be very, very open to change and adjustments.

you said that Moose had 'rat shit' luck of a .220 BABIP last year. Uh no, he didn't. He hit a billion ground balls to the right side of the infield, right into the shift. He pressed all year. He was sent to AAA. For the first time in his life, his career was in jeopardy.

...and then the postseason happened. George Brett told him, "hey, everyone is at .000 now." Why did he say that? Because he watched Moose press ALL year long.

He crushed the postseason both at the plate and in the field. It gave him ALL SORTS of confidence. He parlayed that confidence into becoming a complete hitter. Learning how to beat the shift. Having the luxury of knowing his career was safe helped him do all of this.

I don't know what your sports background is, Hamas. Or PB. Or anyone. But if you think confidence in baseball has nothing to do with hitting ... you're ****ing wrong. Plain and simple. "Seeing the ball well" is another way of saying, "that hitter has a lot of confidence right now."

It's hilarious to me. Talent gets you there, no doubt. You have to have talent. The difference between guys who make it with talent and guys who maybe don't is confidence. I predicted before the year that if Moose came out and FINALLY had a strong April he'd be a force this year. No pressing.

So far, what has happened?

I know, I guess I was lucky again. Just like I was lucky in Volquez. Just like I was lucky when I mocked PECOTA, fangraphs and Vegas for predicting us to have between 72-80 wins.

Yep. Luck.

I said if Cain kept his weight back he could hit 20 HR's ...

I know, luck.

I guess I'm just the luckiest ****ing baseball fan in the world when it comes to predicting things that I watch.

If that hard data existed, you could find it. If your claim is true, then post-season success leads to sustainable differences in player production after said success occurs that can't be accounted for by either a small sample size issue or a player's natural aging curve.

The most likely evidence, which is supportable, is that Moustakas looked at his 2014 numbers, saw how pull happy he was, and decided to change things to increase his batting average rather than rolling everything over to the second baseman.

I'm sure Chris Davis had a **** of a lot more confidence after his 50 HR season, but he's never been able to repeat it. Same thing with Bautista. Not surprisingly, both achieved such successes after swing changes, not by being the hitters they always were.

I'll say it again: prove that his confidence is what made him change his approach.

Not sure Moose is the best example here, as Steamer really liked him a proj a 3 WAR season.

In Moose's case, I believe the post-season success gave him the confidence that he was a major-league player. Last year, he was simply fighting to survive, including enjoying about 5 hours in Omaha when he was demoted, but then his slap-dick replacement was immediately injured.

Embracing a paradigm shift as big as Moose did coming into this year demands a level of confidence in just belonging. That's what I believe last October gave him.