After Week 9:

Kansas City’s playoffs chances dropped by nearly half to an anemic 8% after losing to the Bucs. We still have a chance due to the influence of parity in the league. Only Pittsburg, New England, the Jets, and Baltimore are ranked significantly above KC in power ratings in the AFC. However, our sub par record hurts us, obviously. Division favorites in the AFC are New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Denver*. Other strong competitors include: the Jets, San Diego, Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Houston.

In the NFC, division favorites are Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Seattle. The strongest competitors among the remaining teams are the Giants, St. Louis, Green Bay, Detroit, Tampa, and Dallas. I predict that at least 2 playoff qualifiers from the NFC will have records no better than 9-7.

The attached txt file contains the detailed breakdowns. For each team, the first number is the odds of winning the division, the second number is the odds of making the playoffs, and the third number is the power rating I used to calculate the outcome of the remaining games.

*Violated the salary cap during their championship seasons

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It has been a while since I updated these for several reasons: 1) lack of interest because of the collapse of the Chiefs and 2) hoping to have enough time to implement draft pick order prediction. Anyway, with the interest in the Broncos crash and burn on the rise, I decided to do an update. I also want to document the predictive ability of the program over the course of a season. Without further ado...

After Week 12:

The Broncos chances of making the playoffs are 48%. Their chances of winning the division are 24%. AFC Division favorites are New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and SanDiego. Other strong competitors include: the Jets, Baltimore, Broncos, and Jacksonville.

NFC division favorites are Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Seattle. The race for the wildcard is wide open. I’m sticking with my prediction made in week 9 that at least 2 teams that qualify from the NFC will have records no better than 9-7. Could even see a 7-9 record make it. The strongest competitors among the remaining teams are the Green Bay, St. Louis, Giants, Arizona, Detroit, Carolina, Tampa, and Chicago,.

The attached txt file contains the detailed breakdowns. For each team, the first number is the odds of winning the division, the second number is the odds of making the playoffs, and the third number is the power rating I used to calculate the outcome of the remaining games.

After Week 13:

Donk haters rejoice! The Broncos playoff chances have dropped to 37%. I’d like to thank them for making playoff predictions fun again.

The AFC division leaders are New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and San Diego. All of these teams are more than 95% likely to win their divisions. The Jets have all but sewn up one wild card position. Leaders for the last position are the Ravens, Broncos and Jags.

The NFC is a joke. The division leaders are Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, and St. Louis. Philli and Atlanta have sewn up their divisions, but the other two races are wide open with even Chicago and Arizona having a shot at winning their divisions. Similarly the wild card race is wide open. The runner up in the NFC North (Minnesota and Green Bay) has the best shot. Only SF is out of contention for the Wild Card. Everyone else has odds of 4% or better.

The attached txt file contains the detailed breakdowns. For each team, the first number is the odds of winning the division, the second number is the odds of making the playoffs, and the third number is the power rating I used to calculate the outcome of the remaining games.

After Week 15:

The Chiefs have dropped the Broncos* playoff chances to 22%. I can’t tell you how happy it makes me to type that.

New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and San Diego have all clinched their divisions. I predicted this 3 weeks ago, but probably would have picked it up a week or two earlier had I run my program every week. The Jets have about a 98% chance of grabbing one wild card. The last position will probably go to the Jags (35%), Ravens(30%), Broncos* (22%), or Bills (15%).

In the NFC, Philadelphia, and Atlanta have clinched their divisions. I have predicted these since week 7 when I did the first predictions. The other two division races remain very competitive. Minnesota and Green Bay are about even favorites to win the division. Green Bay has sewn up at least a Wild Card and Minnesota is about 99.7% sure to make at least a wild card. Seattle has a 73.5% chance of taking the West. The race for the final wild card spot (assuming GB or Minn takes one) is still wide open; the leaders are: Carolina (44%), New Orleans (21%), Washington (9%), St. Louis (7%), Chicago (7%) or Seattle (6%).

The attached txt file contains the detailed breakdowns. For each team, the first number is the odds of winning the division, the second number is the odds of making the playoffs, and the third number is the power rating I used to calculate the outcome of the remaining games.

*Violated the salary cap during their championship seasons.

the chiefs have a "KCC",2.23 % chance of making the playoffs. I like it :thumb:

No, that reads:

0, .002, 23

which parses as:

zero chance of winning the division, 2 chances in 1000 of making the playoffs, and power ranking of 23.

In other words, it ain't gonna happen this year.

sorry, misread it :sulk: