We had one advantage over those other teams... the #1 pick.

You know what you get with Smith. Mediocre, not good enough to win a SB, QB play. Any of the QBs in this class bring hope that they can be more than that and if they dont who cares? You aren't missing out on anything. You just come back 3-4 years later and take a chance on another college QB.

All but the last two years were with incompetent head coaches and skew the results. You can choose to include those years if you want, but I believe it is an inaccurate way to look at it.

In the scenario that he referenced Smith throws for 3000 yards and we improve by 5 or 6 wins. Does that not qualify as good?

Do you believe that Jim Mora, Tony Dungy, and John Fox are great coaches and made Peyton Manning what he is?

They don't skew them that much.

He was throwing for less than 200 yards a game and less than 20 TDs with and without Jim Harbaugh.

Why wouldn't you? Expecting the same results without waiting to see isn't very smart. You are basing it on nothing but your own biases.

8 years of mediocre play pretty much insures that it was a bad choice.

According to most of this place, "good" is wearing red, yellow and an Arrowhead on your helmet.

Of course. Yep. Drew Brees = Alex ****ing concussion Smif.

Unbelievable the amount of garbage that has been posted to this effect, though. But I guess we shouldn't be too surprised.

No, the games were played, so they're being included in the analysis. Alex ****ing Smith isn't a martyr. He doesn't get the '09-'11 Cassel treatment from me.

That's the stuff true fan mangina scissoring is made of.

Why not wait and see if a lifelong 20 handicap beats Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, etc at the Masters in a few weeks?

I mean, expecting the same results without waiting to see isn't very smart. Or so I've been told.

It depends. I don't expect them to become a SB contender in the first year after going 2-14, and anyone that does is being very unrealistic. I think 7or 8 wins the first year would be a success. I hope for better, since I think we were a better team than the 2-14 record shows, but I think 7-8 wins is a reasonable expectation.

No, it actually doesn't.

We're hoping for mediocrity from a 29-year-old QB, as if these shouldn't be the prime years of his career. He's not ascending. At best, his talent will plateau until around 33.

This

Seriously.

This trade is a win now move. And you are banking on winning with ****ing Alex Smith?

7 - 8 wins is a ****ing failure.

oh please, don't throw me in with gochief and co.

I did my best to give cassel a fair chance as well as the rest of the previous administration.

Alex Smith IS more physically gifted than Matt Cassel but even under Harbaugh it didn't really translate to significant improvement. You could easily lay the improved production onto the 49ers total talent level and better coaching than the Chiefs had.

If Alex Smith doesn't have a clean pocket, he tends to shit the bed.
If Alex Smith has too many bad things happen, he gets nervous and shits the bed.
If you ask Alex Smith to carry too much of a load, he tends to shit the bed.

all of these things are very similar to Matt Cassel and a game-manager level Quarterback.

Hey, i could be wrong ... Alex Smith might just need a chance.

24 TD's, 11 INT's 3,300 yds 62%

Thank you. That's a legitimate argument. My point is that I really don't think Reid is bringing Smith in here with the expectation of throwing 20 times a game for less than 200 yards. Our defense was terrible last year.

I've seen plenty of Alex Smith play to see just how mediocre he is and also him taking hits that are going knock him out of games as he is older. He wont last 3 years starting with the Chiefs. He will play ok but nothing great to be excited about. That is the best expectations I have for him.

I'm just trying to get a handle on the expectations.

I mean, I thought 3000 yards and improving by 5 or 6 wins would be categorized as good, solid performance, and a reasonable expectation for the guy, based on his career to date. Expecting more than that would I think fall into the "overinflated expectations" category, to borrow the term from the other thread, and wouldn't I think be fair to the guy.

I also thought Fat Elvis' projections were in the same basic neighborhood, albeit a hair more optimistic than mine. (65% completion, 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 7 Ints). He sees more wins (11 versus my 7-8), but that's not as much about Alex Smith on my end as it is about expecting there to be some flux after a complete front office turnover. Philosophically speaking I also wouldn't head into any season expecting 11 wins, much less a year after going 2-14. You're basically asking to be disappointed there. I try to limit my expectations in that sense.

I'm struggling to figure out where I was unfair, or why my scenario was "bad".

Okay, that makes sense.

Why will Alex Smith be better in KC than he's ever been in his career? I'm ready for a convincing argument in response to this question.

And I don't want to read, "Because of Andy Reid."

No, we're hoping for better than mediocrity (the most overused word on this forum, by the way. Maybe some of you should get a thesaurus).

This isn't baseball and sabermetrics. There is far more year to year variance in QB rating than OPS, for a whole host of reasons.

Mediocrity wouldn't be so overused if it didn't perfectly define Alex Smith and the Chiefs.

I think we have a better chance at 5-11 that the other way around.

I suspect we will be better and I actually think there is a better chance of going 11-5 if Smith does get hurt. Stanzi or Daniels might pull something out of their rectums. We know the verdict on Smith.

So you are saying its just as likely that Alex goes 1,900 yards 17 TDs and 22 INTs at 54%?

I never noticed your signature with those stats until now. That pretty much says it all.

If we're no no longer allowed to use mediocre, then I hereby nominate "fairish", "humdrum", "middling", "no great shakes", "pedestrian", "second-rate" and "unexceptional" for average mediocre replacement and "crappy", "junky", "ratty", "raunchy", "rinky-dink", "rubbishy", "shoddy", "small-time", "tatty", "tawdry", "trashy" and "two-bit" for inferior mediocre replacement.

I think we will win 7 or 8 no matter who the QB is. I think there is a chance we will win 10 or 11 games with Alex Smith (only because I don't think we were as bad as the 2-14 record indicates, competent coaching last year and we would have had a better record).

But the truth is that none of us know what will happen. Declaring Alex Smith a failure at this point is ridiculous.

I didn't say you aren't allowed to, just that is would be nice. It seems that a lot of people here just parrot each other so every post from the people with low expectations starts looking exactly the same.

First, you're on a Chiefs forum, so the usage is natural. Second, I could have just said "A True Fan's wet dream," but this makes vaginas sensitive.

Okay....How many just googled Alex Smith's wife (images)? :thumb:

Well Clark definitely thinks Andy is the sh** otherwise Reid probably doesn't take the job as keg said.

You forgot ho-hum

No, I am saying Andy Reid believes he can make Alex Smith more productive than he has been previously, and Reid has SOME history in doing that with players. That's all I am saying. The chance of Alex Smith throwing for 4000+ yards with limited interceptions is possible, and Reid thinks he can get that. Main argument is that Reid thinks he can get that.

Chances are the majority of the NFL QB's will also in the said given 2-5 years.

I'm glad you geniuses are so sure of yourselves. I hope like hell you are proven wrong. Usually being so sure of something that is really uncertain is a recipe for being wrong. Good luck with that.

Google images.

This looks like a pretty accurate estimate. But I do think Smith has the potential with our weapons and Reid's QB coaching, to eclipse those stats.

I think winning 10-11 games with dingleberry is ludicrous. Declaring Alex Smith to be anything more than what he is always been to this point is ridiculous.

Yeah, good luck with this: http://www.pro-football-reference.co...S/SmitAl03.htm

Last year, when he was ****ing pwning, he was throwing for less than 175 YPG. By the way, it's 2013.

I'm not a huge Alex Smith fan, but I don't believe your statement.

Link for his doubling production of any QB?

Cassel won 10, and with a far worse HC. Why not?

7-9

Who's declaring Alex Smith a failure?

I also think we'll win 7 or 8 games no matter who the QB is.

I further think there's a chance we win 10 or 11 games, again regardless of who the QB is.

My problem is not with Alex Smith. My problem is with trading multiple second round picks for Alex Smith. I'm sure he'll do fine. But I don't think he'll give us a whole lot we couldn't have gotten elsewhere for less of a price, and I don't think he'll give us a whole lot more over the long haul than we could have gotten out of not just Geno Smith but out of several of the other QBs in this (or basically any other) draft class.

That's where my issue lies. I'm sure we can win 6-12 games a year with Alex Smith at quarterback. I'm sure we can compete in playoff games with Alex Smith. I'm also sure we can do all of that with pretty much any quarterback with this coaching staff and this roster. Well, aside from Matt Cassel, who seemed to be on a personal mission to turn the ball over in 2012.

If Alex Smith was a free agent, I might not have any issue at all. But we gave up a lot, and I expect the returns to be limited. Not bad. Not failure. Just limited. The trade didn't and doesn't make sense to me. Saying that doesn't mean I think the next four years will be a dumpster fire.

You say that like that would be a bad thing.

Do you really think that any of us would be disappointed if he ended up a whole lot better than we think he can be?

I'd love four years from now to be saying "boy, was I wrong about this guy, aren't these back-to-back superbowls awesome!!"

I'd much rather win than be right.

"lame" "boring" "predictable" "less than desirable" "watch the grass grow" "watch the paint dry" "WNBA"

It might be aliens, it might be.

Just read the last couple of pages of this forum. Hell, Clayton drones on and on about it all the time, so do a bunch of others.

That's just clayton. Who pays attention to him?

"Subtitled foreign films".

If a miracle happens, this will be a fun thread to revisit.

I think 2010 Cassel > Alex Smith for one...

Yes, I think some here would. They have invested so much emotionally in Geno, and are so afraid of being proven wrong about Alex Smith, that I do believe several of them would be unhappy. Many are using the "if he does well we will be stuck with him for years" argument (as if being stuck with a successful QB is a bad thing). Logic is rare on this forum.

Link for Andy Reid offenses throwing it only 20 times a game for less than 200 yards a game? How many times a game did he chuck it with rookie Foles? I don't know, but am guessing a lot more than 20 times a game.

With the best draft picks in the history of the franchise we shouldn't have to resort to hope and miracles.

What do you base this on?

You're in the minority.

LMAO Okay.

I wouldn't be mad if Alex Smith proved me wrong but you cant be any further away from afraid of him actually doing it than I am.

I expect Alex to do average. He might win a playoff game but I doubt it.

I think you underestimate the power of winning.

This forum (well no forum) has never really existed in a time where the team was consistently successful. 2002-2003 would be the closest.

The rest of the time, this team's been crap. When we were all on the star board in '99 and '00 bitching about Gunther and Grbac, it was crap. When Vermeil came in 2001 it was still crap. In 2002 and 2003 it was great on offense, but complete crap on defense. And was crap thereafter until this day, basically.

They haven't won a playoff game since the 1993 season. Think about that.

Has there ever been any sizable online environment where the Chiefs were good?

That has to color everything in some way or another. Imagine four years from now, in this fantasy world where Alex Smith is Joe Montana reborn, we're winning playoff games and making superbowls.

Do you *really* think that wouldn't have an impact on the fanbase? On this forum? That people wouldn't enjoy that more than bitching and moaning? Or even being "right" in this anonymous online world?

I think that's probably why there's so much bitching and moaning. Because people want to win so badly.

looks like a dirty slut

no doubt a former club whore. Alex loved them.

look at that ****ing douchebag.

we better not give him 60 mil or I'll put a jihad on him.

Reid had Foles throw 38 times a game for 243 per game, yet he will have Alex Smith on a Cassel-like leash? Evidently, that's consensus view.

LMAO Don't be a hater.

There is no doubt in my mind that Smith will be throwing the ball more often than he did in SF. There is also no doubt in my mind that he will not have near the "success" he had in SF doing so.

He does take a crap ton of sacks. He is not afraid to throw it down field. He just hasnt as i have stated, ever had the receiver the ability of Dwayne Bowe to throw to. he threw to Vernon Davis, and Delanie Walker, deep at will.
Feel Free to provide an example of this. I have never ever seen this happen, because usually the great qbs, have a great front office, and coaching staff surrounding them.
From 2-14, to 7-8 wins is not a failure. Thats a plus 5 win ratio. That is anything but a failure.
Alex Smith doesnt have to be better than he has been. He just has to keep doing what he was doing last season, and the chiefs will be successful.....The 49ers also at the time that he got hurt, had the second best defense in football, and the number one rushing attack. That was the design with alex smith. Dont force things, dont turn the ball over, let your play makers make plays.

IM pretty sure that the eagles were trailing a whole lot last year. Something that in the past two years, alex smith hasnt been doing. And im sure that if the chiefs are winning games in the second half of games, they arent going to be throwing it all over, more like running charles all over people. Its not a stretch to say, that if charles stays healthy, hes going to easily have career highs.

It is also fair to say this in regards to alex smith. He is a great soldier. He will do what ever is asked of him. If andy asks him to throw 30 times a game, he will. i dont ever think alex is going to turn into aaron rodgers, but hes never going to be matt cassel......

Bullshit.

He throws it down the field less than anyone else in the NFL.

Out of one reason: fear of being picked.

Speaking Respectfully, can I ask why?

Hes ultra efficient. Why would increasing his throws, decrease his productivity? When he did throw, he was completing 70 %. If they were calling the same kind of pass plays, but more often, why would his production not exceed what he was doing?

Wrong. He throws less down the field than anyone in the nfl, because he throws the ball LESS than anyone in the nfl. Your argument doesnt wash with the actual stats of it Clay.

He was SECOND in the league in yards per attempt.....

Something is wrong with your logic.

I imagine Reid will count on him to throw the ball more than 5 yards down field.

Anything less than 6 wins in 2013 and 11 in 2014 and a playoff win means the trade was a failure: regardless if it's Alex / Chase Daniel (ha) / Alicki Stanzney (lol) under center.


The FO office opted to make a "win-now" move with a middling level game manager. The team's stars aren't getting any younger, and it's clear there's pressure from Clark to put butts in the seats and stop the fan revolt, so they've put Dorsey and Reid into a corner where they should logically blow up much of the roster, build their own team with draft picks and hitch their wagon to a rookie QB.

But they're not doing that, so they have to make a run with guys like JC, DJ, and Tamba in the remaining few years of peak performance and get to the Superbowl before 2015.

No SB wins by that season, then we're going to be in the exact same situation the team was at on Jan 4 '13