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Grading the Royals at the Halfway Mark (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=274519)

gblowfish

07-14-2013 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9812678)

I am not breaking down individual players. All I will say is this is a giant ****ing F

ya hear me? I said

A GIANT ****ING F

Wow, and over the years you guys have called me a cynic.
Petegz28 IS George Blowfish, circa 2006.

I went through this phase. Now I just come to expect and accept their failure. It's what it is.

CoMoChief

07-14-2013 09:28 PM

Pitching - B+ only reason why it's not in the A range is because other than Santana and Shields, our starting staff has been very inconsistent. Other than Herrera, the bullpen for the most part has done it's job.

Coaching - F There were just so many games this year already where Yost or some other Royals has cost this team games. Messing around w/ the ****ing lineup so much etc.

Hitting - F Other than a couple people...this team hasn't hit for shit all season long. This team needs to hit the long ball. That's the only way we're going to compete w/ teams like CLE and DET. We're on the brink of the season being over. These Royals bats need to wake the **** up!

petegz28

07-14-2013 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish (Post 9812745)

Wow, and over the years you guys have called me a cynic.
Petegz28 IS George Blowfish, circa 2006.

I went through this phase. Now I just come to expect and accept their failure. It's what it is.

We have not had a rotation like this in a long, long time. You had Shields, Santana and Guthrie dealing nasty sauce game after game and couldn't do anything but lead the league in the least amount of runs scored.

It's ****ing sad and ****. Yost don't have a ****ing clue of how to manage in the AL. GMDM as well. This team is soft and weak. Gordon and Salvy are really the only 2 every-day players that go out there game after game and get after it on both sides.

Then there is Billy "Love me some SS" Butler who, if you ask me, fell in love with himself after last year and for what he is on this team to do, is flat out stinking up the joint. Why? Because he can. Because Yost and GMDM treat these guys like Kiddy-Kings.

Nightfyre

07-14-2013 10:34 PM

I don't get why Pete thinks it is so bad to stick Hos in the 2 hole. :shrug:

salame

07-14-2013 10:44 PM

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Wy52vEj8Sz...humbs-down.jpg

Bambi

07-14-2013 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9812665)

JFC it's been right here in front our faces the entire time!

Mama Hip Rockets

07-15-2013 12:09 AM

Jarrod Dyson gets an F for standing there and staring at strike three with the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth inning on Friday.

BWillie

07-15-2013 03:43 AM

I dont really see how Hosmer deserves a C-

Hes been offensively as good as Gordon this yr

B for Hos IMO. He actually gets more pts for turning things around

petegz28

07-15-2013 06:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9812871)

I don't get why Pete thinks it is so bad to stick Hos in the 2 hole. :shrug:

Because he needs to be hitting #3. You know what I have been noticing a lot of? When we have a guy on 1st and the next batter gets a single the runner on 1st stops at 2nd. Other teams? The runner on 1st goes to 3rd.

Hosmer right now is our power. It would be nice to see him moving runners before BB hits a DP to SS.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 06:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9813023)

Hos and Gordon have adequate speed on the bags. Put your best OBP guy number one and your best hitter number two. Gordon/Hos does that.

petegz28

07-15-2013 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813044)

Hos and Gordon have adequate speed on the bags. Put your best OBP guy number one and your best hitter number two. Gordon/Hos does that.

Lough hasn't been a slouch for getting on base.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9813298)

Lough hasn't been a slouch for getting on base.

So you are going to totally marginalize your best hitter by stacking three lefties in a row at the top of the order? :hmmm:

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813844)

So you are going to totally marginalize your best hitter by stacking three lefties in a row at the top of the order? :hmmm:

WTF do I care about lefties? Seriously. WTF? No one is getting marginalized. I am putting the best 3 hitters at the top that have the best chance of getting on base. Right now, Gordon, Lough, Hosmer is my 1-3 with Perez, Butler, Cain 4-6, Moose, Gia, Escobar 7-9.

duncan_idaho

07-15-2013 03:24 PM

I have no problem with Hosmer in the 2 hole and would far prefer that to ever seeing Alcides Escobar there again.

A lot of teams have moved to that approach, putting a premium hitter in the 2-spot. It has worked quite well for Minnesota with Joe Mauer.

I think freaking out about Hosmer at 2 vs. Hosmer at 3 is just moving deck chairs.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813844)

So you are going to totally marginalize your best hitter by stacking three lefties in a row at the top of the order? :hmmm:

Don't set a lineup worrying about innings 7-9. Cross that bridge when you get there.

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9813859)

It's not freaking out. It's pointing out that it is being done at the expense of a better option, imo. Right now I think Lough is the man at #2. Good contact hitter, good speed, helps set the table for Hosmer's power. Mauer is also not a HR hitter where Hosmer is or can be and that's a big difference. I would rather my power guy be hitting with 1 or 2 guys on more than empty bases.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9813860)

Don't set a lineup worrying about innings 7-9. Cross that bridge when you get there.

So you're going to ignore a third+ of a players at-bats, and arguably the most important at-bats since you have now knocked out the starter. There is no way to cross that bridge if you have no one you can effectively sub in for Gordon/Lough/Hos.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 03:29 PM

Hosmer has 9 HRs on the season, so let's not crown him a "power guy" just yet. And if you're OK with him hitting with 1 or 2 guys on, you should be cool with him hitting in the 2 hole, since Gordon's OBP is strong.

Lough's OBP is too driven by batting average, so we're going to see this go down during the second half.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813869)

I'm not batting Lough second, but if he were indeed one of our best hitters, I would not hesitate to set this lineup.

Get your best batters the most ABs. Period.

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9813870)

I am saying Hosmer should be more of a power hitter than Mauer. That being said, Lough is all of .003 behind Hosmer in OPS so why not stick him in the #2 and let the more powerful guy hit behind him?

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:31 PM

Pitching splits are real, Deez. Lineup construction does matter as a result of this fact. I have no idea how either one of us is going to convince the other that one philosophy is correct, but damn!

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:33 PM

Comping for a difference in AB's, the best Slugging on our team sits with Butler, Gordon, Hosmer, Lough and Perez. There is your 1-5 in some order and I would stick Lough at #2. That's just me.

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:35 PM

So as it stands right now, anyway, Lough is among the 4 best on the team in OBP, SLG and OPS....so why is it bad to put him at #2 between Gordon and Hosmer?

Plus the intangible is Lough can stretch hits into a double where Hosmer can't thus making Hosmer even more valuable hitting behind him.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813879)

Pitching splits are real, Deez. Lineup construction does matter as a result of this fact. I have no idea how either one of us is going to convince the other that one philosophy is correct, but damn!

Splits are very real, so this is why I support your theory of going L-R-L-R as much as possible, Ned. o:-)

Get your best hitters the most ABs. I stand by this philosophy above everything else.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:38 PM

Gordon: Bats Left
Lough: Bats Left
Hosmer: Bats Left

A LOOGY can come in and wipe out the top (ie best run producing portion) of your order with the effectiveness of a closer.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9813894)

Splits are very real, so this is why I support your theory of going L-R-L-R as much as possible, Ned. o:-)

Get your best hitters the most ABs. I stand by this philosophy above everything else.

In fairness: I would not bat Esky second.

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813896)

Gordon: Bats Left
Lough: Bats Left
Hosmer: Bats Left

A LOOGY can come in and wipe out the top (ie best run producing portion) of your order with the effectiveness of a closer.

Then they aren't your 3 best hitters. right now I believe Gordon is raking LHP'ers.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813896)

Gordon: Bats Left
Lough: Bats Left
Hosmer: Bats Left

A LOOGY can come in and wipe out the top (ie best run producing portion) of your order with the effectiveness of a closer.

It's somewhat problematic that Gordon and Hosmer are both hitting better against lefties than righties this year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&year=2013&t=b

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&year=2013&t=b

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:43 PM

I'm calling Gordon's 107 ABs against LH'ers a fluke. Also, probably his 243 ABs against RH'ers. This is an anomaly. Just look at his 2012 splits. Or for that matter, his career splits.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813904)

I'm calling Gordon's 107 ABs against LH'ers a fluke. Also, probably his 243 ABs against RH'ers. This is an anomaly. Just look at his 2012 splits. Or for that matter, his career splits.

Whom do you want getting the most ABs on this team? This is really the only question that matters, dude.

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:44 PM

I am gonna go all Billy Beane on mother ****ers...

Q: Why do you bat Gordon 1st?
A: Because he gets on base

Q: Why do you bat Lough 2nd?
A: Because he gets on base

Q: Why do you bat Hosmer 3rd?
A: Because he gets on base

You get on base we win, you don't we lose.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:44 PM

Also, with Hosmer, when he was crushing his rookie season, it was against righties.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9813908)

So despite the fact that Cain has a better OBP than Lough, you would rather stick Lough in the two hole?

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 03:46 PM

I'm not going to put much stock in a rookie season in terms of splits because too much is new for all involved. And Gordon hit lefties pretty damn well in '11, too.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:49 PM

So a weird trend I'm noticing, just clicking through Royal's player splits. Nearly every one of the Royals has a reverse split and is performing better against same-handed pitching. No wonder our offense is struggling. This must be a systematic development problem.

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813913)

So despite the fact that Cain has a better OBP than Lough, you would rather stick Lough in the two hole?

There isn't much difference in their OBP and Lough has a better OPS and SLG. Plus Cain is striking out about 10% more of the time than Lough and he is slower.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9813921)

There isn't much difference in their OBP and Lough has a better OPS and SLG. Plus Cain is striking out about 10% more of the time than Lough and he is slower.

Cain is NOT significantly slower than Lough and Lough will cool off. He only has like 100 ABs.

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813923)

Cain is NOT significantly slower than Lough and Lough will cool off. He only has like 100 ABs.

Ok, let me rephrase, Lough runs the bases harder and better than Cain. And there is a difference between being fast and being a good base runner. Right now saying Lough will cool off is speculation. He may and he may not. But at the moment he is hitting like a #2.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9813926)

I'm mostly arguing for the sake of baseball discussion at this point, just for the record. I suspect Lough will cool off, but I hope I am wrong. If Cain would ever reach his potential, he would be my ideal number two, I think. A good combination of speed with pop.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813919)

LMAO. I was just going to post Cain's splits.

I've long advocated for Butler to hit second, and I still think this would be a good option.

petegz28

07-15-2013 03:56 PM

Plus another significant difference between Cain and Lough is the rate of K's. If Lough's OBP drops as a result of Avg as Deez claims, but he is maintaining a 15% clip at K's then he is most likely still moving runners where Cain who K's 25% of the time would not be. You already have a person who K's at a 25% clip in Gordon in the top 3 but he can offset that because he is a great hitter. Cain is not a great hitter so sticking 2 guys who K at a 25% clip in the top 3 as opposed to 2 guys at a 15% clip in Lough and Hosmer is not a good idea, imo.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9813929)

LMAO. I was just going to post Cain's splits.

I've long advocated for Butler to hit second, and I still think this would be a good option.

If I didn't care about base-clogging:
1) Gordon
2) Butler
3) Teh Hos
4) Salvy
5) Lough
6) Cain
7) Moose
8) Someguyat2B
9) Esky

petegz28

07-15-2013 04:00 PM

If you want a mix old school and new school I think at this point you still end up with Lough at #2 or #1. Can Hosmer steal if Gordon gets out? Yes but not ideal. Can Lough steal if Gordon gets out? Better chance than Hos.

Plus the power is there in Hosmer should Gordon and\or Lough get on. And you have the pitcher throwing to a good bat with 2 good runners on base and no outs...I like that situation a lot more than say Butler at the #3 and Hosmer #2.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813933)

If I didn't care about base-clogging:
1) Gordon
2) Butler
3) Teh Hos
4) Salvy
5) Lough
6) Cain
7) Moose
8) Someguyat2B
9) Esky

Base clogging? Are you just trying to piss me off now? lol.

Regarding Cain, I think he sucks. Takes a shitty approach and misses a shit ton of highly hittable pitches.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 04:09 PM

pete, you want Lough to be something he's not (as in, not a 4th outfielder).

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 04:09 PM

Every one of our players this year has had a shitty approach. At some point, you have to look at the player development.

Nightfyre

07-15-2013 04:13 PM

Also:

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9813947)

Base clogging? Are you just trying to piss me off now? lol.

Yes. :fire:

petegz28

07-15-2013 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9813948)

pete, you want Lough to be something he's not (as in, not a 4th outfielder).

Oh no no no no no. I never said he was anything more. But on this team, right now, he is our person in RF.

Deberg_1990

07-15-2013 04:41 PM

Sort of off topic...but has Brett agreed to stay with the team the rest of the season? When he started he said it was just for a month or two.

DeezNutz

07-15-2013 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9813973)

Oh no no no no no. I never said he was anything more. But on this team, right now, he is our person in RF.

Got it. That's fair.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 9813953)

Yes. :fire:

LMAO.

BlackHelicopters

07-15-2013 05:03 PM

This thread is so depressing. 28 years. Sigh.

Al Bundy

07-15-2013 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9813947)

Base clogging? Are you just trying to piss me off now? lol.

Regarding Cain, I think he sucks. Takes a shitty approach and misses a shit ton of highly hittable pitches.

Sounds like 8 of the 9 guys.

Chiefshrink

07-15-2013 07:33 PM

Royals don't know how to win when it counts.

lewdog

07-15-2013 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop (Post 9814001)

This thread is so depressing. 28 years. Sigh.

Coincidence that I am turning 28 this year?

Nope. I stopped going to church a while ago too. Here's my punishment.

petegz28

07-15-2013 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink (Post 9814202)

Royals don't know how to win when it counts.

I lay that at the feet of Yost. A team always reflects their manager. I remember Vermeil always telling the media...."we'll play anyone, anytime, any where. We'll go out an play in the parking lot right now if you want".

It's an attitude. The Royals need some of that mentality at the top.

gblowfish

07-15-2013 08:09 PM

Every time the Royals draw a big crowd at home, they lose. And the Royals staff knows this. It frustrates the Hell out of them, because every time they could make a big splash with a large house of paying customers, they shit the bed. Every single time.

Brianfo

07-15-2013 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9810951)

Fielding Independent Pitching is a measurement of what a pitcher would do if you removed luck and defense from the equation, giving him league average luck on balls in play. It's an attempt to normalize for the pitchers who have good defense behind them, and who are riding good/bad streaks of luck in order to truly evaluate their worth.

xFIP adds in the league average HR/FB ratio to better normalize the measurement.

It works extremely well. If a pitcher has an xFIP higher than their ERA they are getting lucky. Lower and they are unlucky.

Further explanation:

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

A walk is not as harmful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these kinds of differences, presenting the results on the same scale as ERA. It has been shown to be more effective than ERA in terms of predicting future performance and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis.

Its a royals thread fuqtard. Be on your way. You really are an annoying ****. Go beat off to stan musial.

Chiefshrink

07-15-2013 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9814263)

Damn right it is but some here think Yost is not the problem:rolleyes:

Archie F. Swin

07-16-2013 05:50 AM

Its this time of the year that I typically begin to hate the fact that baseball is my favorite sport. It really becomes a burden. I looked that the MLB standings yesterday and really got depressed. It had become very clear that the Royals had so much more in common with the Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays and Padres and very little in common with division leaders. Then, I look at the Cardinals record to pour salt on the wound.

How lame is it that we consider getting to .500 a goal? Rany referred to this as the "soft biggotry of low expectations" that we've long looked forward to the Royals being mediocre.

Chiefshrink

07-16-2013 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin (Post 9814776)

"soft biggotry of low expectations"

Yost :rolleyes:

gblowfish

07-16-2013 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin (Post 9814776)

The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays and Padres take offense at being compared to a perennial loser like the Royals!

confused

07-16-2013 10:23 AM

Hochevar has been pretty damn good in relief as crappy as he was in the starting rotation. Perez needs to lose a few pounds, but other than that he's the type of kid you build your franchise around. It's hard to give Gordon anything better than a B+ after that 1 month stench where he went from batting 340 to under 300. Moustakas's bat has been that of an NL middle reliever, and I get a sick stomach even fathoming Frenchy. Pretty good ratings though, I agree with the vast majority of them.

BlackHelicopters

07-16-2013 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish (Post 9814986)

The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays and Padres take offense at being compared to a perennial loser like the Royals!

ROFL

ChiliConCarnage

07-16-2013 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thurman merman (Post 9812949)

Jarrod Dyson gets an F for standing there and staring at strike three with the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth inning on Friday.

This is the equivalent of telling a guy who penetrates into the lane, gets fouled, and misses the free throws at the end of the game that he should settle for the 24' jumper in the future.

It's one AB; Dyson should be held up as a shining paragon of what more of our hitters should strive for. Escobar who has a similarly slight build and hitting ability should be forced to watch Dyson footage 24/7. It's surely a bit of an aberration but Dyson either leads or is tops on the team in SLG and OPS because he's willing to take pitches. Despite the fact that his bat is limited he has the exact same obp as Lough who Pete loves and who is probably going to drop like a rock in the second half.

gblowfish

07-16-2013 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage (Post 9816270)

Despite the fact that his bat is limited he has the exact same obp as Lough who Pete loves and who is probably going to drop like a rock in the second half.

Lough has a decent shot at AL Rookie of the Year if he keeps his numbers where they are now.

ChiliConCarnage

07-16-2013 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish (Post 9816277)

Lough has a decent shot at AL Rookie of the Year if he keeps his numbers where they are now.

I've enjoyed what Lough has brought to the team but assuming he cools off only slightly he'll end the year with a .280AB/.300OBP with 10-13Hrs. If that wins him a ROY then great

Great Expectations

07-16-2013 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish (Post 9816277)

Lough has a decent shot at AL Rookie of the Year if he keeps his numbers where they are now.

No chance

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