29 other GMs also didn't draft Braden ****ing Wilson

The unknown possibly of draft picks are a lot like lottery tickets to people.

If given the choice between 10 dollar scratch tickets and a 20 dollar bill, I think most people would pick the lottery tickets because of their unknown potential. Yet the second they has scratched them off and realize they have a two dollar winner and a free ticket, they regret passing up the sure thing.

Alex Smith was the sure thing.

The picks we gave up for him were full of unlimited potential. Maybe they pan out, maybe they don't, but I'm not upset that the Chiefs have a legitimate signal caller under center. Smith is now a proven winner. I'm anxious to see how he fairs with the difficult schedule we face next year. If we make the playoffs again, I think the case should be closed for good.

Whether you admit it or not, a qb who can win games in the nfl is most definitely a commodity, a damn valuable one.

What impresses me most about the OP laid out from the smith picks, is they essentially moved back one spot in the late 2nd round this year and got WR Stevie Johnson.

I'm not doing the research but I'd guess that a good number of the 6th round and 7th round picks before and after Braden ****ing Wilson aren't on their teams either.

Smith. We would have had a losing record with Palmer last year.
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The Niners would have been better off using those early picks on their perceived "weaknesses". CB and WR, taking other positions only if the player available is clearly better than anything else on the board. However, I guess that they kind of had little choice after the top 7 DBs already went well before their pick. Idiots should have used some to move up and grab Roby or something.

Nice post. All the words are spelled correctly and everything. You are agreeing with the poster who said Alex Smith wasn't a commodity and thinks Baalke has drafted well, but other than that it was a good post.

Yeah....it kind of surprised me that they just kept trading down.

they can always trade for flowers, 2nd round pick should do it

ok i'll stop

that as much about the 49ers trading around in the draft and the Chiefs just sitting there than it is the Smith trade


apparently we have another ultra conservative GM who either doesn't know how or doesn't believe in maneuvering around. Frustrating

That said, imo the 49ers would have been better moving up and grabbing 4 studs than a bunch of guys who probably won't be able to make their talented roster.

People seem more impressed at the quantity of the picks than the quality of them. Guess I don't get it
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This.

Cleveland moved around and seemed to get some quality players, SF moved around and ended up with a bunch of ?s imo. Though the Stevie Johnson acquisition was nicely done. also the Brandon Thomas pick pissed me off. If we're gonna draft for the future anyway, he's the ultimate futures investment on the line.

have to say I still think Johnny busts out big time, as in another Cleveland qb fail

I agree. I didn't post it to point out that we somehow got robbed in the Smith trade because I think that still has to be played out.

As I pointed out, I don't like the differences in draft day strategy plain and simple. Let's sit back over the next 5 years and watch. If Dorsey remains on course and doesn't change or grow in his position at all and Baalke stays on, we will evaluate then.

What I've learned over time is that fans are always more critical of their own team than they are of others and always think the grass is greener.

For instance I work with fans of the Packers and Patriots. They always think their drafts suck. They are alot more critical of Rodgers and Brady than we are.

Human nature.
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We would have missed out on a playoff loss and the tight cap space that's going to make things difficult to keep Smith, Berry, and Houston on the roster!

Also, I think we all know that Flowers is a cap casualty next year, but I don't see how Hali is not in the same boat. It's going to be a real shame that we have to release him from his contract likely before his aging decline begins to happen

I mentioned this earlier, but I'm not sure we can actually determine that yet. Because he traded for Smith, he had no 2nd in either draft, and he had a limited number of picks in both (8 last year, 6 now). That's not a lot of ammo for movement. Next year may give us a more clear window into what he wants to do, assuming we don't trade any more picks away for anyone. They should have double-digit picks, and (non comp) picks in every round.

Also the active teams tend to be the ones that have had multiple tradeable picks in the first three rounds (particularly 1st and 2nd). We just haven't been in that position (and probably won't be next year).

We've also been on the clock until the very last second with every pick. That indicates to me that they're talking, but maybe haven't gotten an offer they like. A lack of movement doesn't necessarily mean there's a lack of interest in movement, if that makes sense.

Guess we'll see next year. Maybe.

After two off-seasons and two drafts I'm pretty much done.

Other than the Cooper find he's been piss poor at drafting.

He's been piss poor at the whole draft process (trading up/down and finding value.)

He's done a piss poor job of retaining talent and a piss poor job of replacing talent through free agency.

I'm throwing in my pink "Pioli" flag right now.

He doesn't trade, draft, or sign well.

Reid will likely buy him two more years because Reid makes poop smell like perfume...

If it came down to it, our FO would try to trade him for something instead of just releasing him. Gotta believe that, if he's still productive or undergoes a successful position switch to 5-tech, Dorsey would have no problem with signing Hali to a Suggs-like contract extension that can easily be cut without much of a hit after a year or two in the deal.

bye

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Were it not 4 some of the worst safety-play in the history of organized football, Alex Smith leads the <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Chiefs&amp;src=hash">#Chiefs</a> to a playoff victory in &#39;13.</p>&mdash; Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/LRiddickESPN/statuses/465907270585311232">May 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>I can definitely think of &quot;worse&quot; trades. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Chiefs&amp;src=hash">#Chiefs</a> did just fine getting Smith, really like Bray, and now have Murray.</p>&mdash; Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/LRiddickESPN/statuses/465907622743273473">May 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Aaron Murray to <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Chiefs&amp;src=hash">#Chiefs</a> is another perfect fit for the player. They will have a great plan for his continued ACL rehab &amp; QB development.</p>&mdash; Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/LRiddickESPN/statuses/465207699316441089">May 10, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>I still think you do the Smith trade over again if you are the <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Chiefs&amp;src=hash">#Chiefs</a>. Easily.</p>&mdash; Christopher Hansen (@ChrisHansenNFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisHansenNFL/statuses/465903760586203137">May 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Peterson/Shottenheimer

I've listened to interviews of Dorsey & I don't think he is smart enough to pull this off.

The Cardinals who had the 5th hardest schedule in football ended up with 10 wins, yet the Chiefs who had the easiest schedule in football had 11, yet Carson Palmer would have made it so the Chiefs wouldn't have had a winning record? :doh!:

Not to mention Palmer was 4-1 in common opponents (ironically all the games were the same home/away wise) with 10 tds and 3 ints and 66% completion pct. Smith was 4-1, with 2 tds and 3 ints and 58% completion. Yet the Chiefs would have finished with a losing record?

I think the Cards 6th rank D had a lot to do with that. Chiefs D was 24.

i'm starting to get a bad feeling about him as well. :(

Good analogy.

I think I'm the type of GM who would always be trading up to get players instead of trading down.

Chiefs defense was tied for 5th in total points, Arizona was 6th.

I'm a big believer in trading down (at least to a certain extent). If you can get value for the pick, you have a better shot at getting lucky with 3 guys than one guy in the first round. No, not all of them will hit...but you only need one out of 3 to hit as opposed to putting all your hopes in a single pick.

A little early to give up dont you think? This is a boom or bust draft class. Hopefully it booms after thid year so the Chiefs will have a nice pick next year and some cap space to sign guys.

The relationship between pick value and player success isn't linear. The further you trade back, the less potential high-end value you're getting. You limiting your chances of ending up with nothing but you're also limiting your chances of getting actual blue-chip talent.

Sure, you can shotgun it, take 3, and hit 1. You're not going home empty-handed.

Or you can use a rifle, hit 1, and ****ing KILL IT.

If you want a couple of pheasants, a shotgun works fine. If you want to bring down a rhino, you better have a rifle.

Yeah....that's great when you have a bunch of holes on your roster. No way the entire 49ers draft class makes that roster.

After years of following this team, it's obvious that every GM we have is an idiot until we actually get to a Super Bowl.

For all the Baalke love, and he has made some good moves, let's not forget his crappy 2012 draft or wasting some high picks on non-difference makers. He hasn't been perfect. Inheriting a strong talent base when he took over and the success Harbaugh has brought has allowed them to trade down and stockpile picks for future drafts. And as we talked about this offseason, the most successful drafts come from having a lot of draft picks, giving you more opportunities to hit and make moves for guys you target.

Next year will be the first year we are in a position to have extra picks in the draft, so let's see where that takes us...

Somewhere in the middle of the season, when the offense hadn't quite gotten it together, I remember Reid said something along the lines of Alex is getting a lot of blame for things that he has no control over and that he was actually minimizing the damage, but that criticism is just part of being the QB.

9ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL, imo. Sometimes it's better to grab a lot of players and throw them against the wall and see what sticks than it is to grab a guy who might be able to beat one other guy.

The only real weaknesses I think on that roster are CB and WR. They addressed one in the draft and the other in a trade.

I'll take those over anything Palmer would have given us.

I disagree

imo when you roster is talented you should trade up and grab the higher players that fit you specific needs.

Quantity over quality is what crappy teams use because they might get lucky and have several guys make their roster

I understand where you're coming from, and I do think it is a balancing act..but give this a read:


http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/...s-irrationally


This was particularly interesting: He and Thaler figured this out by calculating the odds that the first player picked at any given position will perform better — in terms of the number of games he starts in his first five seasons — than the second player drafted at that position. This is relevant because a team will often trade up when they identify a player they prefer at a needed position: they need a wide receiver, and a few highly-rated ones are available, but they trade up because they're certain one is much better.

But the data says that teams just aren't very good at figuring out when this is true. On average, the chance that first player will start more games than the second one picked at his position: 52 percent. Compared to the third, it's still only 55 percent, and compared to the fourth, it's merely 56 percent.


Bottom Line: Scouts and GMs just aren't good enough to figure out who should really be in round 1 or round 2 or round 3 and are better off trading down for the most part.

Palmer turned the ball over 15! times more than Alex Smith.

You really don't think 15 more turnovers last year would have cost us 3+ games? Seriously?

And that's how they lost out on Marcus Cooper.

They lost out on Cooper because they refused to believe that he could be better than Nnamdi. They gambled that they could get him on the PS. They lost the gamble.

9 of Palmer's interceptions were against the 49ers and Seahawks.

If you could accurately determine who the best player is at a given pick, great. Most NFL GMs don't hit accurately enough to make it statistically worth while.

Good thing we don't have him NOW then, since we face both of them.

LMAO, true.

I really don't think who we lineup under center is going to matter that much this season though.

Alex Smith is better than Carson Palmer. There's no contest there.

I imagine we will be adding a dozen undrafted guys to this list soon.

Matt Cassell says hi.

They both suck to be honest, but to say we would have had a losing record with Palmer when he had a winning record playing a harder schedule is just ludicrous.

So this is who they got.

DL Tank Carradine (second round, 2013)
LB Corey Lemonier (third round, 2013)
LB Chris Borland (third round, 2014)
RB Carlos Hyde (second round, 2014)
WR Stevie Johnson (acquired for 2015 fourth-rounder)

And we got Alex Smith.

Call me the 1%, but I'm happy about our trade. Would those two 2nd rounders have gotten us a pro bowl caliber QB? Nope. Sure we'd have maybe 1 more defensive starter, or maybe another linemen, but is a Starting Free Safety or a Starting Right Guard worth dealing with Matt Cassel again?

God no.

And to the people thinking we got raped, I'll give you this, the course of transactions between Kansas City and San Fran last year.

Them:
2nd round pick 2013
2nd round pick 2014
WR Johnathan Baldwin (Trade)

Us:
QB Alex Smith (Trade)
WR AJ Jenkins (Trade)
Marcus Cooper (Waivers)


Looks to me like we got 2-3 of this years' starters from 2 trades and a waiver grab, and it only cost us two 2nd rounders.

I'd happily give up 2 2nd rounders right now for Alex and Marcus alone.

We can juxtapose all we want about the wheeling and dealing of the draft picks, that's what teams with depth do, but we can't go out and say "well they got this and that and the other because they traded" when we wouldn't have made the same move. The "bottom line" is value. Is Alex Smith worth 2 2nd round picks in this year and last years' draft? Absofugginlutely. Was AJ Jenkins worth the swap with Baldwin? So far, no doubt about it, yes. Was the addition of Marcus Cooper worth the jostling of the waiver wire last year? Guarangoddamntee it.

I like their Borland Pick, and I like their Hyde pick, however, Hyde's not going to see much action there, they have a zillion backs as is, and Borland is undersized for their defense. Carradine, we will see what happens, but with an ACL issue, you never truly know.

If anybody's been raped so far, its been the niners. (supported by the 'mixed feelings' comment IMO)

Two second round picks for a franchise QB is a small price to pay. The question is whether he will be extended and whether they are going to build around him. If he is gone after this year it was an atrocious move and Dorsey should be sent packing.

I just want to compare a few things.

Colin 243 416 58.4 3,197 7.7 21 8 39 231 91.6 92 524 5.7 4 6 4
Alex 308 508 60.6 3,313 6.5 23 7 39 210 89.1 76 431 5.7 1 7 3
Matt 153 254 60.2 1,807 7.1 11 9 16 85 81.6 18 57 3.2 1 3 1

The niners with a 16 game starter, got 25 TD's, and 12 turnovers out of Colin.
The Chiefs with a 15 game starter, got 24 TD's, and 10 turnovers out of Alex.

Both took 39 sacks, Colins' for 21 more yards, both pretty close on passing yardage despite the 1 game difference. Alex did a lot more dinking and dunking than Colin did, Colin ran a little bit more, surprisingly on the ground they had the same yards per carry which I thought was shocking.

But let me show you the mind blowing statistic

1 Alex Smith 119.7
2 Philip Rivers 116.9
3 Nick Foles 105.0
4 Russell Wilson 101.6
5 Aaron Rodgers 97.8
6 Peyton Manning 94.2
7 Tom Brady 87.7
8 Drew Brees 81.9
9 Cam Newton 79.9
10 Andrew Luck 76.4
11 Colin Kaepernick 74.0
12 Andy Dalton 67.0
13 Anquan Boldin 39.6
13 Tarvaris Jackson 39.6
13 Andy Lee SF 39.6

And yes, I know, it was just one game, but look at how well colin played in his 3 games vs. Alex in 1. Alex in his 1 scored as many TD's than Colin in his three.

Matter of fact, have you guys seen Alex's lifetime post season stats at all?

I think we got the better of their 2 QB options and now they are kicking themselves for what they gave up and how relatively cheap it was compared to the performance.

You are a ****ign moron. Smith doesn't suck. He is not elite but he is far from sucking.

They gave up 35 ppg the 2nd half of the season and had like 4 sacks. Did you watch the games? They were shit.

Dumb. Absolute horrible post. Still beating the Smith sucks drum is pathetic at this point.

Remember this when we scavenge Jeff Janis from GB this August.

Or land Crabtree next year in a very timid Crabtree market. :hmmm:

Carson Palmer was mediocre with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts as his top receivers and had a TD:INT ratio of 24:22.

What the hell was he going to accomplish with Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, and Dexter McCluster? 10TDs and 40 INTs?

Probably comparable numbers with about twice as many sacks and maybe 10-15% less yardage IMO.

"Hyde is widely regarded as the best running back in the draft and figures to be the first one off the board. But the first back might not be taken until the second round for the second straight year."

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/inde...s_hyde_is.html



Widely considered to be the best running back in the draft, Hyde slipped to the late second round and went after two other backs. Inexplicably, the Bengals selected LSU's Jeremy Hill over Hyde, citing Hill's pass-protection abilities, among other reasons.

That shouldn't offend Hyde, who couldn't have found a better fit than San Francisco. Frank Gore, a geriatric as a 30-year-old running back, is also entering the final year of his contract. Still, Gore has started 14 or more games in all but two seasons with the 49ers.

Hyde has to compete with the incumbent Gore, as well as Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James and Marcus Lattimore. Behind their offensive line, however, it's hard to imagine "El Guapo" not succeeding at the next level.

http://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-s...-draft-edition



They also drafted Carlos Hyde, the best running back in the draft, and Marcus Martin, one of the top centers. Hyde is a big back who runs hard and can catch the ball well out of the backfield. However, he’s slow in getting to top speed- he ran a sub par forty of 4.66 seconds. He slipped, being a running back, but has 1st round talent.

http://isportsweb.com/2014/05/13/nfl...ggest-winners/



San Francisco 49ers: Stockpiling picks paid off for the 49ers, who grabbed the consensus best running back in the draft (Ohio State’s Carlos Hyde), a potential starting center (USC’s Marcus Martin) and a potential starting inside linebacker (Wisconsin’s Chris Borland). General manager Trent Baalke and head coach Jim Harbaugh might not get along, but they do know how to draft.

Read more at: http://nesn.com/2014/05/2014-nfl-dra...piling-talent/



The Denver Broncos then traded up one spot with San Francisco to get another weapon for Peyton Manning in Cody Latimer, wide receiver from Indiana. At 57, the 49ers picked Ohio State running back Carlos Hyde – who a lot considered to be the best running back in the draft.

http://www.providencejournal.com/spo...-nfl-draft.ece



STRENGTHS

Very well built -- looks every bit the part. Outstanding size, explosive power and run strength -- can be his own blocker and create his own holes. Punishes linebackers running downhill and almost always falls forward. Superb contact balance and finishing strength -- does not go down easily and can barrel through arm tackles. Extremely powerful short-yardage/goal-line runner. Gets better with a lather as the game progresses. Took over the game in the fourth quarter vs. Northwestern (2013) and willed team to victory. Surprisingly quick in short spaces and can plant hard and go. Is solid in pass protection and can stonewall blitzers in their tracks. Good awareness and anticipation to react to stunts and adjust to movement. Soft hands-catcher. Plucked the ball very naturally at his pro-day workout.

WEAKNESSES

Lacks elite breakaway speed. Average elusiveness and make-you-miss. Is still learning what it means to really work and be a pro -- entered program with some underachiever traits early in career. Weight fluctuated earlier in his career and needs to pay more attention to nutrition. Has missed at least two games in three seasons.

DRAFT PROJECTION Rounds 1-2

BOTTOM LINE

A big, strong, powerful, NFL feature back who carried the Buckeyes' offense as a senior and proved he can be a workhorse. Solid all-around, chunk runner well-built for the physicality of the AFC North.


http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profil...yde?id=2543743

Carradine was well on his way to being a first round pick and potentially even a top 5-10 pick in April's NFL Draft before he tore is ACL in late November

http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/2...denver-broncos



Why Tank Carradine is the Best DE Prospect In The NFL Draft

Had it not been for the injury, Carradine would have been the best pure 4-3 defensive end prospect in the draft and a surefire top ten pick, but but Carradine’s recovery from the ACL has been as remarkable as his season. The injury was suffered in early December and he is currently planning to have a full workout before the draft in April, barely four months after the injury.

http://www.footballnation.com/conten...l-draft/22201/

10 years ago, Hyde is a top 5 pick, but RBs are undervalued today. They still have real field value on power running offenses, as you will see from Hyde.

Tank Carradine projected to a top 10 pick before his injury.

The 49ers got 2 top 10 talents deep in the 2nd rounds. You do the math.

Throw in Stevie Johnson who has 3 consecutive 1000 yard seasons receiving basically from Matt Cassel.

Add Lemonier and Borland for kickers.

You will see the quality over time. You will be hearing these names called in the playoffs. Well actually, you will be seeing these guys week 5.