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-   -   Football *** The Official Cowgirls/69'ers GDT *** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=347119)

Megatron96 01-22-2023 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch (Post 16757004)
The crazy thing to me is, the math favors going for the 2 point conversion every time, regardless of anything else. Chip Kelly understood this well.

So if the math slightly favors going for it with all else equal, it should be a no-brainer to go for it when your kicker turns into Steve Sax. But they won't do it.

This same logic applies to the Chiefs with Butker imo. KC should go for it all the time.

chip kelly didn't last what, three seasons?

mr. tegu 01-22-2023 06:34 PM

The Cowboys are forcing Purdy into dink and dunk which will eventually pay off with him making mistakes.

displacedinMN 01-22-2023 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16757019)
chip kelly didn't last what, three seasons?

should have stayed at ORE

displacedinMN 01-22-2023 06:35 PM

that is one big ass boat

Vladimir_Kyrilytch 01-22-2023 06:37 PM

538 dug into this some years ago, the question of 2-point conversion or extra point. They concluded it is completely 50/50:
Quote:

According to ESPN Stats & Information Group, there have been 1,045 two-point conversion attempts since 2001,1 with teams converting 501 of those tries. That’s a 47.9 percent conversion rate; given that a successful attempt yields 2 points, that means the expected value from an average 2-point try is 0.96 points.

Interestingly, that’s almost exactly what the expected value is from an extra point these days. Since the NFL moved extra-point kicks back to the 15-yard line last season, teams have a 94.4 percent success rate, which means that an extra point has an expected value of between 0.94 and 0.95 points.

This means that, all else being equal, the average team should be indifferent between going for two or kicking an extra point.
So when your kicker is having the issues of Maher or even Butker, the math would clearly say go for it with no hesitation. With KC though, their struggles with gaining short yardage might throw the math back the other way. Maybe.

Megatron96 01-22-2023 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by displacedinMN (Post 16757024)
should have stayed at ORE

Definitely. he was not a good NFL coach.

displacedinMN 01-22-2023 06:39 PM

supper time

Bearcat 01-22-2023 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch (Post 16757004)
The crazy thing to me is, the math favors going for the 2 point conversion every time, regardless of anything else. Chip Kelly understood this well.

So if the math slightly favors going for it with all else equal, it should be a no-brainer to go for it when your kicker turns into Steve Sax. But they won't do it.

This same logic applies to the Chiefs with Butker imo. KC should go for it all the time.

That's the whole problem... if you're scoring 3 or 4 touchdowns in a game and going for 2 every time only works out slightly in favor, you're still taking the risk that you're on the wrong side of that every single game, mutually exclusive of the times it works out.

Make the 2
Miss it
Make it
...yay, you have a whole extra point.

Miss the 2
Make it
Miss it
...well, -1 this game.

...and you don't know if you'll get that extra chance to make up for a miss.

Points are too valuable in any given game to simply say across 100 chances, you'll come out on top +5 points.

And idiots like Staley have ****ed it up plenty of times, overthinking it and going for (and missing) early, and then kicking EPs late when they should actually going for 2, etc.

Vladimir_Kyrilytch 01-22-2023 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16757033)
Definitely. he was not a good NFL coach.

He was the talk of the league for a while. After his NFL stint, he went back to college, and now he has UCLA in the top 10 every year instead of the Ducks.

Megatron96 01-22-2023 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu (Post 16757022)
The Cowboys are forcing Purdy into dink and dunk which will eventually pay off with him making mistakes.

Thing is, that offense is literally dink and dunk passing strategy with a healthy dose of rushing. right now, they've run the ball just 7 times. They're backwards right now.

Megatron96 01-22-2023 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch (Post 16757043)
He was the talk of the league for a while. After his NFL stint, he went back to college, and now he has UCLA in the top 10 every year instead of the Ducks.

He's a good college coach. So was urban meyer, for that matter. There have been a lot of good college coaches that tried to move up to the NFL, many turned out to be out of their depth.

wazu 01-22-2023 06:42 PM

Zeke got JACKED! UP!

Megatron96 01-22-2023 06:44 PM

Lol, DAL still can't just run a series without finding a way to eff it up and have to call a TO.

tk13 01-22-2023 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat (Post 16757041)
That's the whole problem... if you're scoring 3 or 4 touchdowns in a game and going for 2 every time only works out slightly in favor, you're still taking the risk that you're on the wrong side of that every single game, mutually exclusive of the times it works out.

Make the 2
Miss it
Make it
...yay, you have a whole extra point.

Miss the 2
Make it
Miss it
...well, -1 this game.

...and you don't know if you'll get that extra chance to make up for a miss.

Points are too valuable in any given game to simply say across 100 chances, you'll come out on top +5 points.

And idiots like Staley have ****ed it up plenty of times, overthinking it and going for (and missing) early, and then kicking EPs late when they should actually going for 2, etc.

Yeah especially in this game where it's low scoring and this may very well be the two best defenses in the league. You may not get many shots to even score a TD.

Kman34 01-22-2023 06:45 PM

Damm I wanted to see him fail again..

Vladimir_Kyrilytch 01-22-2023 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat (Post 16757041)
That's the whole problem... if you're scoring 3 or 4 touchdowns in a game and going for 2 every time only works out slightly in favor, you're still taking the risk that you're on the wrong side of that every single game, mutually exclusive of the times it works out.

Make the 2
Miss it
Make it
...yay, you have a whole extra point.

Miss the 2
Make it
Miss it
...well, -1 this game.

...and you don't know if you'll get that extra chance to make up for a miss.

Points are too valuable in any given game to simply say across 100 chances, you'll come out on top +5 points.

And idiots like Staley have ****ed it up plenty of times, overthinking it and going for (and missing) early, and then kicking EPs late when they should actually going for 2, etc.

I was never in love with the ultra-aggressive Chip Kelly strategy of literally going for 2 every time, but I'll tell ya what, it sucked to play against that team. And I mean that both as a Chief fan when he was the Eagles coach and as a Duck hater when he was in Eugene.

Easy 6 01-22-2023 06:49 PM

Look at Dallas go, WOOO

Frazod 01-22-2023 06:49 PM

Eww. That slo-mo replay was nasty.

smithandrew051 01-22-2023 06:50 PM

Yeah, that’s broken

ChiliConCarnage 01-22-2023 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frazod (Post 16757088)
Eww. That slo-mo replay was nasty.

Yeah, no bueno

jdubya 01-22-2023 06:50 PM

Just like yesterday, not intentional

mr. tegu 01-22-2023 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16757045)
Thing is, that offense is literally dink and dunk passing strategy with a healthy dose of rushing. right now, they've run the ball just 7 times. They're backwards right now.


Sure but they are giving them the passes and tackling, betting Purdy can’t drive the whole field needing 12 plays. Right so far.

Megatron96 01-22-2023 06:50 PM

that's going to be pretty sore for awhile.

Demonpenz 01-22-2023 06:51 PM

Kick the fg

smithandrew051 01-22-2023 06:51 PM

Isn’t he supposed to be a free agent too? Damn that sucks.

WilliamTheIrish 01-22-2023 06:52 PM

Dak pick

Frazod 01-22-2023 06:52 PM

Oops.

loochy 01-22-2023 06:52 PM

Dakiception

George Liquor 01-22-2023 06:52 PM

Dak gonna Dak

Easy 6 01-22-2023 06:52 PM

Dak is SO inconsistent

Megatron96 01-22-2023 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu (Post 16757096)
Sure but they are giving them the passes and tackling, betting Purdy can’t drive the whole field needing 12 plays. Right so far.

Purdy is also trying to push the ball downfield a lot. he's had guys open underneath, but for whatever reason he's ignored those receivers looking for something deep. He did it last week in the first half and SF struggled until the 2nd half when he finally just took what the defense was giving him.

Lol, nice INT Dak.

Pablo 01-22-2023 06:52 PM

Dakota is a scrub

PHOG 01-22-2023 06:53 PM

Ooohhhhh Dak Dak Dak ROFL

mlyonsd 01-22-2023 06:53 PM

#4 sucks.

smithandrew051 01-22-2023 06:53 PM

That’s a couple really bad plays for the Cowboys

loochy 01-22-2023 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demonpenz (Post 16757101)
Kick the fg

Cant. Kicker has a broken mind

kcpasco 01-22-2023 06:53 PM

Dak is ass. I don’t care if he has a great game once in awhile.

Demonpenz 01-22-2023 06:54 PM

Jesus was an immigrant please let immigrants be in your city

BoxWine_Stouffers_TubeSock 01-22-2023 06:55 PM

How much they pay Dak?

Demonpenz 01-22-2023 06:56 PM

Like dragons in game of thrones everyone wants to watch the dallaa kicker

Megatron96 01-22-2023 06:57 PM

Wow. Wtf is Shanahan thinking?

Bearcat 01-22-2023 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry (Post 16756837)
49ers, the CP darlings, going to suffer a 90s Chiefs loss.

Heh.

MahomesKnows 01-22-2023 06:57 PM

I hate Dallas. But, I hope they make it to the Super Bowl. I think it's the easiest opponent for the Chiefs

loochy 01-22-2023 06:58 PM

What in the effing eff is Shanahan doing with the time management?

Demonpenz 01-22-2023 06:58 PM

Pollard will miss part of next year with that compound injury sprain break maybe

smithandrew051 01-22-2023 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahomesKnows (Post 16757135)
I hate Dallas. But, I hope they make it to the Super Bowl. I think it's the easiest opponent for the Chiefs

Especially if Pollard can’t go

Easy 6 01-22-2023 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pablo (Post 16757111)
Dakota is a scrub

Good game

Suck

Good game

Suck

Wash rinse and repeat, he will never be The Dude

tk13 01-22-2023 06:59 PM

Parsons just obliterated a guy.

Sassy Squatch 01-22-2023 07:00 PM

Holy shit. That was ****ing insane by Parsons.

Megatron96 01-22-2023 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcpasco (Post 16757117)
Dak is ass. I don’t care if he has a great game once in awhile.

Eh, he's not as bad as that. Worst case scenario, he's 7th or 8th in the league, after Mahomes, Josh, Joe, Jalen, Stafford if he was healthy, Aaron if he was playing with Adams, Trevor . . . and i think that's it. And that's the worst case scenario. Some people would probably say he's better than a couple of those guys, like Trevor.

Munson 01-22-2023 07:01 PM

We need a pass rusher who can do this.....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Micah Parsons is a BEAST <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/sNHwnxodK8">pic.twitter.com/sNHwnxodK8</a></p>&mdash; Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) <a href="https://twitter.com/BSSportsbook/status/1617326430454423552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Gary Cooper 01-22-2023 07:02 PM

Kyle Shanahan coaching like he's in the Super Bowl.

Reerun_KC 01-22-2023 07:02 PM

Philly will race both of these teams.

They will cake walk to the bowl.

CasselGotPeedOn 01-22-2023 07:03 PM

SF with the scariest 9 point half in NFL history.

Megatron96 01-22-2023 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Munson (Post 16757150)
We need a pass rusher who can do this.....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Micah Parsons is a BEAST <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/sNHwnxodK8">pic.twitter.com/sNHwnxodK8</a></p>&mdash; Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) <a href="https://twitter.com/BSSportsbook/status/1617326430454423552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Lol, maybe we should kidnap him during the offseason. maybe no one will notice.

smithandrew051 01-22-2023 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Munson (Post 16757150)
We need a pass rusher who can do this.....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Micah Parsons is a BEAST <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/sNHwnxodK8">pic.twitter.com/sNHwnxodK8</a></p>&mdash; Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) <a href="https://twitter.com/BSSportsbook/status/1617326430454423552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

We’ll pretty much never pick high enough to grab that kind of guy

IowaHawkeyeChief 01-22-2023 07:04 PM

Micah is a bad man...

DRM08 01-22-2023 07:07 PM

Maybe a 12 point swing on turnovers by Dallas. That’s brutal.

mlyonsd 01-22-2023 07:08 PM

The iggles are going to kick the shit out of the survivor of this game.

ChiefsCountry 01-22-2023 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Munson (Post 16757150)
We need a pass rusher who can do this.....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Micah Parsons is a BEAST <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/sNHwnxodK8">pic.twitter.com/sNHwnxodK8</a></p>&mdash; Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) <a href="https://twitter.com/BSSportsbook/status/1617326430454423552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And the Cowboys would rather have this guy
https://fox4kc.com/wp-content/upload...1445043354.jpg

Megatron96 01-22-2023 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smithandrew051 (Post 16757158)
We’ll pretty much never pick high enough to grab that kind of guy

We could. If we traded away say three or four consecutive 1st round picks to get a top 5 pick. maybe.

i know we could if we traded mahomes for a top 5 pick.

Easy 6 01-22-2023 07:10 PM

Niners stadium looks rickety AF, like its built from popsicle sticks

Looks legit cheap and even dangerous lol

Megatron96 01-22-2023 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6 (Post 16757183)
Niners stadium looks rickety AF, like its built from popsicle sticks

Looks legit cheap and even dangerous lol

Was having a similar thought before the game started. But of course, it has to be earthquake rated, so it's probably just about the most structurally sound stadium in the country.

RedRaider56 01-22-2023 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DRM08 (Post 16757174)
Maybe a 12 point swing on turnovers by Dallas. That’s brutal.

typical Dak....

Easy 6 01-22-2023 07:17 PM

Pollard needs an emergency aircast, Mahomes say hold my beer while I toss another touchdown

Easy 6 01-22-2023 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16757193)
Was having a similar thought before the game started. But of course, it has to be earthquake rated, so it's probably just about the most structurally sound stadium in the country.

Fair enough, but yeah its reeeally ugly... like some damn gingerbread house or something

PurpleJesus28 01-22-2023 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6 (Post 16757203)
Pollard needs an emergency aircast, Mahomes say hold my beer while I toss another touchdown

Yeah just does to show how tough and a baller Mahomes truly is.

RollChiefsRoll 01-22-2023 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6 (Post 16757183)
Niners stadium looks rickety AF, like its built from popsicle sticks

Looks legit cheap and even dangerous lol

It suuucks. I went once and made the mistake of sitting on the side opposite of the press boxes. When the sun is shining, that glass wall reflects ant-burning levels of light and heat on everybody on the other side of the stadium. Shitty ass design.

Easy 6 01-22-2023 07:21 PM

Dallas has NO offensive juice, Kellen Moore + Dak equals failure

Coach 01-22-2023 07:22 PM

Ooooh, a very costly fumble by the 69'ers.

wazu 01-22-2023 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurpleJesus28 (Post 16757213)
Yeah just does to show how tough and a baller Mahomes truly is.

My hope actually is it means that not all high ankle sprains are created equal and maybe Mahomes got one of the only ones I've seen that players can play through.

Megatron96 01-22-2023 07:22 PM

This could be the biggest play of the game.

siberian khatru 01-22-2023 07:23 PM

Man, you just can’t do that shit in big games

Megatron96 01-22-2023 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll (Post 16757214)
It suuucks. I went once and made the mistake of sitting on the side opposite of the press boxes. When the sun is shining, that glass wall reflects ant-burning levels of light and heat on everybody on the other side of the stadium. Shitty ass design.

If it's shining all that heat on the visitor's side, it could be sneaky like a fox design.

Coach 01-22-2023 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wazu (Post 16757220)
My hope actually is it means that not all high ankle sprains are created equal and maybe Mahomes got one of the only ones I've see that players can play through.

It's a little different as well.

Mahomes is a QB. While he still needs the ankle to perform, an ankle sprain to an RB is worse. It saps their ability to make cuts and the ability to push off of it while moving forward.

Hark Clunt 01-22-2023 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6 (Post 16757183)
Niners stadium looks rickety AF, like its built from popsicle sticks

Looks legit cheap and even dangerous lol

i think it's supposed to look that way. like those retro-modern MLB ballparks.

FloridaMan88 01-22-2023 07:25 PM

America wants to see Dallas have to attempt a FG.

Hoover 01-22-2023 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hark Clunt (Post 16757229)
i think it's supposed to look that way. like those retro-modern MLB ballparks.

NE is the same way

Coach 01-22-2023 07:26 PM

And he makes the FG.

Megatron96 01-22-2023 07:26 PM

Oh, Dak almost lost the game right there. That had pick-6 written all over it.


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