I love that you guys are projecting an entire career based off of the enormous sample size of 600 AB over a kid's age 21 and 22 seasons. Get some damn perspective and baseball acumen and return to this thread.

I don't. But if I'm trying to put myself in the position of a GM trading an elite pitcher, I'm going to be concerned about legitimate red flags.

Could Snider become an "outlier" to the general trend? Of course.

And pitchers don't make apt comparisons to position players, and you know this, but it's interesting that you selected Greinke's second year in the league when he was 22. Why didn't you allude to his rookie year? Oh, probably because he put up a 3.97 ERA with 100 SO and 26 BB and a WHIP of 1.166. 3.8 WAR.

Who could have possibly thought he would have amounted to shit?

Son - there is no doubt in my mind that I know more about baseball than you.

Absolutely none.

I'm sorry I'm not busy not sucking off your little strikeout artist. Tell you what - Go ahead and give me a list of guys with his K/BB ratio and his K/9 ratio at 22 years old and show me how many superstars are in there.

I'll wait.

Strikezone judgment is what it is. Very very few players actually develop much in this regard. You'll have your outliers like Jose Reyes, but most kids are who they are by the time they're in their 20s. You may get some improvement in the margins, but Travis Snider isn't going to become a .900 OPS hitter w/ a 150/75 K/BB ratio - not gonna happen. As a consequence of his low BB total, his OBP will be entirely AVG driven and as a consequence of his high K rate and low contact %, he'll never have an exceptional BA either.

He'll have an OPS based fueled by his slg%, same as many other valuable but limited players in this league. Time and time again history has proven this to be true.

Then again - as a baseball expert, I'm sure you already knew that.

The point was that projecting what a guy is going to do for the rest of his career at the young age of 22 (Grienke) or 23 (Halladay) after slight struggles is nearly impossible to do. There are so many ways a career can play out.

That's all well and good. No one has a crystal ball, but there is enough evidence to make informed judgments (guesses, projections!!). ****, we can't just throw a dart.

Though I'm not putting that past Dayton Moore.

I've read your posts before. You, like Hamas, have a very over-inflated opinion of yourself in most areas. And no, on the basis of what I've read in the past, I can assure you that you don't know more about baseball then me.


I'm surprised that this guy slipped your mind considering the season he just had.

Josh Hamilton MILB line: .292/.340/.472, 83 BB, 227 K, 1132 AB
Travis Snider's MILB line: .302/.376/.530, 170 BB, 401 K, 1412 AB

Hamilton's K/BB in the minors was considerably worse than Snider's, and he's continued to have a poor one in the majors. Or does Josh Hamilton not count as an elite player in your mind? Was that MVP year he just had a mirage?


Josh Hamilton MLB career line: .311/.371/.544, 164 BB, 365 K

But yeah, it could never happen!

Again, stop pretending like you can project a guy's career based on his mediocre K/BB at the age of 22. You'll only come out looking like a fool.

A dartboard of Atlanta Braves castoffs, maybe.

If Snider did more blow, he might have a chance.

And Hamilton's OBP is primarily AVG driven - is it not?

And his K rate is much lower than Snider's, is it not? And his contact rate is higher as well.

In other words - he's capable of hitting for a high average, thus allowing him to post stellar OPS numbers despite the fact he doesn't walk often.

Again - it's not just K/BB, it's the K/BB combined with the woeful K/AB.

I went over this once already.

That's okay, though. We can let it play out. I'm not even sure Travis Snider will ever be as good as Adam Lind, but you just keep on thinking he's your next superstar.

Another example of a player who developed significant plate discipline since he was in the minors and his early major league seasons:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...se-Utley.shtml

But yeah, Snider will never become an elite hitter. LMAO

That applies to pretty much everyone, no?

You told me, definitively, that Travis Snider would never become an elite hitter because of his K/BB ratio in his age 19-22 years. I found a guy with a worse K/BB than Snider in those same years who became an elite major league hitter. Stop ****ing sidestepping, that's the bottomline here.

I never said Travis Snider would become anything at all. What I took issue with was somebody writing off a 22 year old baseball player without good reason.

Another example of a guy without great discipline in the minors who became elite:
Matt Holliday MILB line: .276/.353/.427, 261 BB, 441 K

During his age 22 year, he was struggling along at AA.

Are you just illiterate?

Again, it's his K/BB combined with his K/9.

The dude strikes out too damn much and doesn't BB enough to make up for it. So his AVG is low and his OBP won't be high enough to compensate.

I went over this already.

And again - Matt Holliday struck out about 1/2 as often as Snider.

Are you going to keep ignoring this?

You're not being at all specific here.

But what kind of strikeout rate can you have, then? You're the expert writing off 22 year olds here. Is there like this set number that a player can't go over?