I believe that the Bills will win this game. I am a homer, but I think I'm a reasonable homer. :homer:
Bills Positional Breakdown:
Quarterback - Fitzpatrick well exceeded expectations last year. He threw for 3000 yards, and 23 TDs in 13 games. He should have started at the beginning of the 2010-2011 season, but for some reason the front office was hung up on Trent Edwards. He's looked pretty sharp this preseason and I expect that he'll have a good season. In the third preseason game against Jacksonville, he went 11/12 for 165 yards and 2 TDs. Pretty sharp eh? His biggest downfall last year, was coming up big in the clutch. He seemed to have thrown several late interceptions killing drives for a last minute win or tie. With an improved defense this year, maybe he won't have to be chucking it down the field quite as much to play catch up late in the game. If Fitz gets hurt, we're screwed. Thigpen has looked terrible, and Brad Smith is a gadget QB, not a pocket passer.
Running Backs - You all seem to know Spiller, but he is not our starting RB...at least not yet. Spiller's biggest issue's last year were blitz pickup (read: nearly getting Fitzpatrick killed), and being patient enough to let holes open up. His problem is his speed. He's so fast, he wants to run through the hole before his blockers have time to set up. Jackson is awesome. He isn't the strongest or fastest back, but he seems to have this elusive quality. It looks like the Bills are trying to get Spiller more playing time this season. Hopefully something clicks for him, because he definitely has all of the physical tools.
Wide Receivers - Stevie Johnson had a fantastic season last year, but I'm concerned about his production this year. Last year he had Evans to draw the safety away from Johnson's side of the field. This year, Donald Jones appears to be starting across from Stevie. You guys probably recently see him get his bell rung by Raheem Moore against the Broncos. He's a total question mark at this point. He played really well in the limited playing time that was given to him last year, but will that translate to success as a starter? I guess we'll see. Roscoe Parrish will probably be in the slot. He's super dangerous, and can run a fly route pretty well (has caught several deep balls this way during his tenure as a Bill). Where he's most dangerous though, is underneath stuff. He'll get a swing/screen/bubble pass, and can go the distance every time. He was injured for half the season last year, and his presence was definitely missed.
Tight Ends - We have a guy named Scott Chandler. He has actually played well during the preseason, but we'll see how he does when the games count. The Bills haven't had a competent tight end in a long while.
Offensive Line - I am actually optimistic about the line. They are benefited by the fact that Fitzpatrick is really good at eluding the rush. Levitre, Wood and Bell are all starters in this league. While Bell has looked iffy at times, I think he's an average starting LT. I'm worried about the right side out our line. It will consist of Kraig Urbik and Erik Pears. I didn't really notice Pears during the preseason, but it seemed like Urbik was abused consistently. While most think our line is terrible, I think it is just average.
Defensive Line - This is where the Bills will be much improved due to the addition of Dareus. He has looked beastly thus far in the preseason, but I'm concerned that he could be injury prone. He was already in crutches earlier in the preseason. Barring injury though, I think he could definitely win DROY. Obviously it's a toss up at this point, as the season hasn't even started yet, but it's definitely not that far fetched. Williams is great at getting penetration for a NT, but he isn't your typical 3-4 eat up blockers NT. Dwan Edwards is pretty unremarkable. He won't make any big plays, but he probably won't hurt us much either. Torell was a high 2nd round draft pick, and will probably see increased line in the rotation this season. It has yet to be seen whether or not he'll make any impact.
Linebackers - We lost Paul Poz, and we gained Nick Barnett. I'm going to call this one a wash. It seems so far, like Barnett is much more aggressive that Poz, so he'll probably make more plays while getting burned more often. Kelsay is muff cabbage, and shouldn't be on an NFL squad. If I have to watch him chasing down a TE that's about to score for a TD, I'm going to lose it (not actually...it's just a game I guess...). Merriman has looked really good in the preseason. Apparently the Bills doctors did all sorts of crazy surgical stuff to fix whatever was wrong with his leg. That smuggling steroids at the border story was a hoax, and I don't think he would be stupid enough to juice again. He is probably under extra careful scrutiny by the league, considering he's already been suspended for it. If he can stay healthy, I think he'll at least have 6-8 sacks this year. The linebackers should be at least slightly better against the run this year. I also anticipate an increase in sack numbers from LBs this year. An improved DL should eat up blockers better, leaving the LBs free to get to the QB.
Safety - Byrd had 9 ints in the 2009-2010 season as a rookie free safety, but his production fell WAY down to 1 int last year. I don't know why this happened, because the pressure on the QB was the same both years pretty much (making opposing QBs with the same likelihood of making errant throws both years). He was a ball hawk...can he reproduce that season's success? George Wilson is one of my favorite players, because he came to the NFL hoping to be a WR. Seemingly out of nowhere he came from the Bills practice squad as a strong safety, and is now the Bills starter at the position (and a pretty good one at that). Wilson has been at least as good as Whitner was for us. Whitner will not be missed...
Corner Backs - McGee and Florence are two veteran starting CBs. Leodis McKelvin and Aaron Williams are the two young guns. McGee hasn't been able to stay healthy the past few years. He used to be a legit #1 starting corner, but unfortunately age has caught up with him. Florence is okay I guess, but he never looks back at the ball, and gets a ton of pass interference calls against him. McKelvin hasn't played up to his draft status, but he hasn't been atrocious either. Aaron Williams is super physical from what I've seen of him (he's good at jamming receivers at the line). I think he's going to be a good value pick in the 2nd round. Florence and McKelvin will probably start, with McGee and Williams filling in and playing the nickel.
Special Teams - Ryan Lindell and Brian Moorman are both awesome and not an issue (except when Lindell missed that FG in OT against you guys last year!). The coverage units have not looked very good the past couple of years. Maybe that will turn around this year, but I doubt it. Expect to get awesome field position consistently. Out returners are good, but not elite. Spiller had a return TD last year. I'm not sure who will be returning kicks and punts for week 1. It seems to change week to week.
Things to Watch For:
- The Bills to have a much improved run defense. We definitely aren't giving up 274 rushing yards again.
- The Bills secondary is seriously average. I don't know why Cassel didn't exploit it more last year (maybe because all you guys had to do was hand it off every play for a guaranteed 5-6 yards). I'm predicting Cassel to have a better game than he did last year (if he's healthy...with a cracked rib, who knows).
- Spiller might start, or get significant playing time b/c the front office doesn't want their first round pick riding the pine. It's bad for business. He might miss a blitz pick up, and get Fitzpatrick killed...keep an eye out for that.
- See how Stevie Johnson responds to getting double teamed. With Evans gone, that is going to be his new reality.
- Watch to see if the O-line can deal with the KC pass rush. If the Chiefs bring the blitz consistently, I can see Gailey doing a lot of quick throws right behind the rush to Parrish and Spiller.
tl;dr ~ The Bills will win if they can stop the run, and get some big plays.
Prediction: Bills 24 - Chiefs 17
Let's all hope for a fun injury free weekend :clap: