Originally Posted by Chiefshrink (Post 16969620)

BEWARE!!

https://bravechurch.online/sermon/beware-1

Originally Posted by Red Dawg (Post 16969587)

We have no money. We spent it on defense. We have a surplus of wrsbwe have not really seen yet. We are good.

Originally Posted by RealSNR (Post 16969651)

No, you beware! I'm gonna kick your ass!

Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brother (Post 16969657)

Toney hitting is what ultimately would set up another run of titles

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16969693)

You mean, Toney playing a full season. that's pretty much what we need to see out of him. If he can't play more than 9 games a year, we need to find another WR1.

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16969693)

You mean, Toney playing a full season. that's pretty much what we need to see out of him. If he can't play more than 9 games a year, we need to find another WR1.

Originally Posted by gordonelloyd (Post 16969445)

Why are so many fans so confident we will win the Super Bowl. We really weren’t any better than Cincinnati or Philadelphia last year and we won both those games mainly or at least partly by luck. Everybody has to admit that. And that’s OK. Luck as always part of the game.

It’s pretty obvious that Both Philadelphia and Cincinnati have improved more than the Chiefs this year. And if San Francisco finally has even a semi competent quarterback that can survive, they join the teams that are just as good if not better than the Chiefs.

We are still in the hunt. We are definitely good enough for that. And hopefully we will be lucky again.

I am too new to this board to be able to start threads, but I really would like to see a thread about why people think the Chiefs are going to be better than the Eagles, the Bengals and the 49ers. Not saying we won’t be competitive. But I am saying this overstated confidence is not warranted.

Hope there’s some discussion on this. It would be good if somebody who is able to could start a thread on that topic. Like I said, I can’t. And it really doesn’t belong in this discussion about Hopkins.

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink (Post 16969697)

We don't know yet whether he is a WR 1 yet in spite of a full season. I want to see his full WR repertoire on display before I make that assessment.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16969708)

I strongly disagree with the thesis that the Chiefs have not improved as much as the Bengals and Eagles.

Defensively, the Chiefs' "significant" losses are Juan Thornhill and Frank Clark. Charles Omenihu is an upgrade over a full season from Clark. You can make a good case that year 2 Brian Cook (who came on well at the end of the year) + Mike Edwards is at least as good as Thornhill + rookie Cook, an there's more upside.

The rest of the secondary, which featured 3 rookie CBs, including one who missed a big chunk of the season due to the shitty turf in Arizona, should be improved in year 2. Especially McDuffie. Sneed is Sneed.

So, overall, a better secondary for 2023 is a reasonable expectation.

The pass D will also be upgraded with the addition of Drue Tranquill, a proven vetern who defends the pass well at the LB spot. He upgrades KC at the WLB spot, and allows Willie Gay to play SLB, improving pass coverage there, too. Tranquill offers a major improvement as the dime LB, too, in pass coverage, should the Chiefs treat him like Ben Niemann.

In addition to upgrading one DE spot, the Chiefs also added a day 1 pick at DE, will get a better version of Karlaftis in year 2, and have bought in some rookies who can fill specific roles well.

Offensively, the T combo is potentially a nice upgrade from Brown/Wylie. A healthy Donovan Smith is roughly as good as a pass protector as "good" Orlando Brown, and Jawaan Taylor offers a significant upgrade from Andrew Wylie. Better OL, and a WR room whose floor is similar to 2022, wtih significantly more upside.

So, I would say that the Chiefs upgraded stylistically at T, in upside at WR, and have strengthened their back 7 significantly.

What have the Bengals done? They added Orlando Brown, Jr. at LT, who I don't see as a major upgrade from Jonah Williams. Jonah Williams, if/when healthy, may give them a nice bump from end-of-year at RT, but his issues vs. power rushers would still be present there.

I'll predict the "Orlando Brown upgrade" talk turns quickly to "Orlando Brown contract disaster" talk when he underperforms the contract as a pass protector and the Bengals have to stop taking deep drops without giving him help.

I don't see major improvements there, especially when there's the matter of some key losses on defense (both safeties). Myles Murphy is a nice addition at DE, but usually when a player falls like that, there's a reason. I would guess he gives them a Karlaftis like impact, though.

As for the Eagles, the offense looks similar, but the D lost a lot. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is really good. The LB was a loss (and I don't buy the Nakobe Dean hype). The DL will be counting on some unproven guys to step in for proven veterans, one of them the biggest force multiplier on their DL.

The Eagles also are going to play a much tougher schedule this year, with more strong/complete offeneses and competant QBs.

I don't see really any improvements for the Eagles. No personnel upgrades, just hoping young players adequately replace departed vets.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970063)

Bengals are still concerning. They stayed put on defense and our offense still stalls against them. More importantly their OL that was missing 3 starters will presumably be healthy this year. I still think burrow and Allen on their best days pose a problem for any great defense including ours. I don't think any defense can stop our offense on our best day and no opposing qb can outshoot us. Yet cincy and buffalo (50/50) have brought out some of our worst 4th quarters.

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 16970068)

It's the NFL, and those teams have QB2 and QB3. It's a league designed for parity. You're not going to just dominate every opponent.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970090)

Our offense is capable of dominating these defenses fairly consistently. But we've really been 50/50 against the defenses of our biggest rivals. And we've put up complete zeros in the 4th in about half of those games. for as prolific as our offense has been, you know how many avg points per game we scored in second halves of the last 10 regular season games was? 10.5. Our most disappointing losses the past few years had solid enough defense but surprisingly it's been the offense that just didn't get the job done.

To your point about a WR taking away from the cap, that is only if you believe we need balance. Theres another school that says you build a dominant offense and from there build the best possible defense with what you have left. And yeah I believe we're one piece away from that and that isn't crippling. I don't care if it takes away from the defense or if it means making hard decisions on low positional value players. When our offense is at its best we are flat out unbeatable.

Originally Posted by Boxer_Chief (Post 16970156)

With the recent signing of an edge the Bills are effectively out of running because that have absolutely no money. It still could be the lions, but that signing does at least increase our chances. Will Hopkins hold out until after the start of training camp to make a decision? Curious to see if that will be the case.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970063)

Bengals are still concerning. They stayed put on defense and our offense still stalls against them. More importantly their OL that was missing 3 starters will presumably be healthy this year. I still think burrow and Allen on their best days pose a problem for any great defense including ours. I don't think any defense can stop our offense on our best day and no opposing qb can outshoot us. Yet cincy and buffalo (50/50) have brought out some of our worst 4th quarters.

Originally Posted by Reroka (Post 16970172)

Would love Dhop but, right now we do not have the money. Jones or Mahomes needs to sign an extension so we can free up some money.

Not sure he is coming here, if he wants a ring then sign here for less than he wants, he wants to be paid, go to a team that won't win an SB.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970063)

Bengals are still concerning. They stayed put on defense and our offense still stalls against them. More importantly their OL that was missing 3 starters will presumably be healthy this year. I still think burrow and Allen on their best days pose a problem for any great defense including ours. I don't think any defense can stop our offense on our best day and no opposing qb can outshoot us. Yet cincy and buffalo (50/50) have brought out some of our worst 4th quarters.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970063)

Bengals are still concerning. They stayed put on defense and our offense still stalls against them. More importantly their OL that was missing 3 starters will presumably be healthy this year. I still think burrow and Allen on their best days pose a problem for any great defense including ours. I don't think any defense can stop our offense on our best day and no opposing qb can outshoot us. Yet cincy and buffalo (50/50) have brought out some of our worst 4th quarters.

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 16970196)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Doug Pederson doesn&#39;t see Jaguars signing DeAndre Hopkins. <a href="https://t.co/NdsLlr6iyL">https://t.co/NdsLlr6iyL</a></p>&mdash; ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) <a href="https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1665728319243812867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Originally Posted by Dunerdr (Post 16970197)

Our offense stalls against them? They had a full compliment on D, we had no recievers and a one legged Mahomes and beat them when it mattered most.

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16970218)

The Lions said no, right?

Has to be the Chiefs, Bills, Browns or Texans...with the Eagles as the wild card.

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16970211)

CIN is 3-1 vs. KC. I wouldn’t say we should feel all that comfortable about playing them just yet.

Originally Posted by Detoxing (Post 16970221)

I thought the Texans allegedly said no too. Why not the Ravens?

Originally Posted by Detoxing (Post 16970221)

I thought the Texans allegedly said no too. Why not the Ravens?

Originally Posted by penguinz (Post 16970222)

at least two of those losses is because the chiefs made massive mistakes. Not that Cincy flat out beat them.

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 16970232)

You aren't going to build a bulletproof offense. The 2018 Chiefs offense had bumps in the road, same with the 2020 one.

Add a #1 WR....add a HOF LT etc. it won't matter.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970219)

We scored 0 points in the 4th quarter on offense except for a game winning fg drive built off a 29-yard punt return and a stupid 15 yard penalty. We beat the Bengals because we flat out dominated them on defense which I don't think we can rely on vs a healthy OL. Just as we were really bad on 4th quarter offense vs buffalo. And the Rams, the broncos, the Texans, and even if more excusable the Seahawks and the regular season jags game. Our second half offense was not sharp the second half of the season and would argue a lot of that was masked by playing some truly atrocious offenses, including the gimpy playoff Bengals.

Originally Posted by New World Order (Post 16970236)

The 2018 offense was incredible.

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16970211)

CIN is 3-1 vs. KC. I wouldn’t say we should feel all that comfortable about playing them just yet.

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 16970218)

The Lions said no, right?

Has to be the Chiefs, Bills, Browns or Texans...with the Eagles as the wild card.

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 16970232)

You aren't going to build a bulletproof offense. The 2018 Chiefs offense had bumps in the road, same with the 2020 one.

Add a #1 WR....add a HOF LT etc. it won't matter.

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 16970241)

People wanting the offense to just be in fifth gear for 4 quarters, every game and put up 45 points just aren't realistic.

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 16970246)

If Jawaan Taylor is the real deal then we could be. The 2018 offense was partially so good bc we had bookend tackles that could handle pass rushers. Schwartz shutting down every DE was so valuable.

Last year proved that if you can give Patrick a good OL then he will kill you even without insane weapons

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16970205)

Yeah, that's something a Bengals fan would say.

The Bengals defend the Chiefs better than most teams, but their success against Mahomes has really been exagerrated/skewed by the second half of the 2021 AFC championship game (Jan 22).

Outside of that half, the Chiefs offense has been really successful against the Bengals. They did OK against Mahomes on one leg and a WR receiver corps that was down to using TEs for WR routes in the most recent championship game, but were getting diced up because Toney and Smith-Schuster went down.

All that aside, one of the reasons they've been successful is that the secondary, especially the S, were really good at moving around and mixing up and disguising what they're doing. They've had complete turnover at S and 3/5 of their nickel DB group will be different. I wouldn't call that "standing pat."

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 16970247)

Nah man, it totally makes more sense to focus solely on fixing the #1 offense in the NFL as opposed to building a potential top 5 defense to go with it!

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970249)

At the very least the Bengals are a very different team on offense with a healthy OL. They aren't easy to stop. Which means our offense has a much smaller margin of error and the Bengals have been more successful than others at frustrating us. There is no team I hate more so the opposite... I want to destroy them so they go home crying to their mommies.

But to your point what's to stop defenses from copying? We saw variations of defense that were more successful than others. Weve stalled against real good zone defenses like Gus Bradley or even lovie smith. We did not have very good success against the mcvay tree (rams, chargers, broncos) and yes I'm aware we won each of those games. Or the titans/patriots approach of knocking the shit out of Kelce. Which is why I keep coming back to kelce and how we need to give the dude some help.

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 16970241)

People wanting the offense to just be in fifth gear for 4 quarters, every game and put up 45 points just aren't realistic.

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16970211)

CIN is 3-1 vs. KC. I wouldn’t say we should feel all that comfortable about playing them just yet.

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 16970243)

Feels like the Bills are very unlikely after signing Floyd.

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 16970266)

So, you want the most efficient offense in league history, to be more efficient?

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 16970266)

So, you want the most efficient offense in league history, to be more efficient?

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 16970243)

Feels like the Bills are very unlikely after signing Floyd.

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 16970253)

The Chiefs, with Andy and Mahomes, have put up gaudy numbers against Gus Bradley led defenses.

What are you even talking about?

We demolished zone defenses last year.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970219)

We scored 0 points in the 4th quarter on offense except for a game winning fg drive built off a 29-yard punt return and a stupid 15 yard penalty. We beat the Bengals because we flat out dominated them on defense which I don't think we can rely on vs a healthy OL. Just as we were really bad on 4th quarter offense vs buffalo. And the Rams, the broncos, the Texans, and even if more excusable the Seahawks and the regular season jags game. Our second half offense was not sharp the second half of the season and would argue a lot of that was masked by playing some truly atrocious offenses, including the gimpy playoff Bengals.

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16970211)

CIN is 3-1 vs. KC. I wouldn’t say we should feel all that comfortable about playing them just yet.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970249)

At the very least the Bengals are a very different team on offense with a healthy OL. They aren't easy to stop. Which means our offense has a much smaller margin of error and the Bengals have been more successful than others at frustrating us. There is no team I hate more so the opposite... I want to destroy them so they go home crying to their mommies.

But to your point what's to stop defenses from copying? We saw variations of defense that were more successful than others. Weve stalled against real good zone defenses like Gus Bradley or even lovie smith. We did not have very good success against the mcvay tree (rams, chargers, broncos) and yes I'm aware we won each of those games. Or the titans/patriots approach of knocking the shit out of Kelce. Which is why I keep coming back to kelce and how we need to give the dude some help.

Originally Posted by Dunerdr (Post 16970294)

How many DL can you possibly invest in?

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 16970298)

Not enough unless Von Miller can come back quickly from a late season ACL tear at 34.

Originally Posted by Red Dawg (Post 16970273)

Yeah, we were number 1 in everything so clearly we should go all in on Hopkins.

Originally Posted by smithandrew051 (Post 16970299)

Might just be me, but I woke up liking the Chiefs today

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16970296)

The offense stalled in the 4th quarter because Mahomes was on one-leg and the WR room was so depleted Jody Forston and Noah Gray and Markus Kemp were running WR routes.

This isn't Madden. You're not going to unmercilessly steamroll every single team you play, especially when you've built a big lead.

For as much as the Bengals O has a potentially better OL (And really, that's dependent on Orlando Brown being a major upgrade from Jonah Williams, which he is NOT as a pass blocker) and Williams being healthy and better at RT than La'el Collins (no guarantee there, either), the Chiefs have clearly improved on D. Omenihu>Clark. Karlaftis year 2 > Year 1; Drue Tranquill > Gay in nickel and > Bolton in dime. The CBs should only improve with second years for the rookies who performed so well last season, and S is a wash (with upside to be better, even).

I'm telling you, the Chiefs upgrades on D are more significant than many are giving them credit. Tranquill is going to make a BIG impact defending the middle of the field vs. the pass.



The two teams have played 4 times over the past two seasons, with every contest decided by a single FG. 3-1 could just as easily be 2-2, 1-3, 0-4



From copying what the Bengals did? I don't think it is easily copied, for one thing. Some of their defensive success is based on the adjustments and changes he makes.

He also has DEs who are willing to be very disciplined, and that's a tougher sell that you'd realize.

The Chiefs have consistently diced up Gus Bradley and cover 3/cover 1. That's not a thing. They solved their zone issues in 2022 and did so without sacrificing success against man looks.

And they have worked to provide Kelce help. There are question marks around it, but try to look at the big picture.

Losses
Juju Smith-Schuster - Provided consistency across the middle against zone coverage.
Mecole Hardman - missed a big part of the year, but his speed and ability as a gadget player were impactful, especially in the red zone.

Replacements
Richie James - He can do the things Smith-Schuster did. He's a little smaller but also faster and shiftier, with a little more juice against man
Kadarius Toney - health is an issue for him, but health was an issue for Hardman in 2022.
Skyy Moore - year 2, it's reasonable to expect the flashes he showed to be more consistent, especially with more snaps, a full year and offseason program into things.
Rashee Rice - he's a rookie, so it is hard to have huge expectations. But he does give the team an answer if the defense is playing a lot of man coverage and single high, because of his ability in contested catch situations and after the catch.
Justyn Ross - a lottery ticket. But still a skillset that could be something.
John Ross - another lottery ticket. But still a skillset that could be utilized, potentially.

My point
The Chiefs aren't relying on one big-ticket to ease reliance on Kelce. They're throwing numbers at it and seeing what sticks. But they have made a variety of moves to try to help the receiving group around Travis Kelce. Even the investments at the TE spot are aimed at that.

If the Chiefs can get something done at a reasonable rate that works for them with DeAndre Hopkins, great. But let's stop acting like the sky is falling if they don't. They have lots of other options (and we haven't even talked about improving the pass protection for Mahomes yet...)

Originally Posted by RedinTexas (Post 16970264)

You make a good point, but that 3-1 record is an extremely limited sample. It seems to imply that we only have a 25% chance of beating them and I sure as hell don't believe that. The Bengals are a very good team, but they don't worry me any more than any other very good team.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970259)

It isn't about a fifth gear. Our 4th quarter offense vs Cincy, rams, Denver, Seattle, buffalo, indy and Houston were flat out terrible. Not just bad, terrible.

Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks (Post 16970326)

Just in case you've been in a coma for the last 4 years - and it appears that you have - the Kansas City Chiefs team that you do absolutely nothing but bitch about has played in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls and won 2 of them.

I would've thought no Chiefs' fan could possibly be so miserable during this amazing run - and I would've been dead wrong.

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16970230)

A win is a win

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush (Post 16970338)

Have we moved on from this aging, PED-using, no ring having piece of shit yet?

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 16970207)

Starting to wonder if someone is going to get him on a big discount.

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 16970324)

Never said the sky is falling or that we aren't great because we don't have a WR1. Or that our offense doesn't have some really interesting prospects to work with.

But people keep pointing to the #1 offense last year as if it's beyond reproach. And the big one continues to be how much we rely on Kelce. And what we look like in rare instances (like Tennessee) where a defense can neutralize him somewhat. Until that WR room materializes, that's gotta be a consideration. There were a few teams that used a formula that worked and you gotta believe defenses particularly in the AFC are building their roster/gameplan around that.

And I'm not bringing the Bengals up to say we can't beat them. But the margin of error is slim and I believe we must do that on offense. I believe in our defensive improvements, but I also believe Allen and Burrow (like Mahomes) can pull together games where even great defenses can only do so much. And given how awful their backup OL was in that playoff game, while our defense is better, I don't think that comes close to how much a healthy OL elevates Burrow. Maybe a healthy offense would've solved our 4th quarter offense vs. Cincy. But we also saw really bad 4th quarter offensive performances vs Rams, Denver, Seattle, Houston and most alarming... Buffalo. It's not like it was a one-off. We won on our own merit, but you can't ignore that we also faced a LOT of really really bad offenses the last half of the year (including Cincy, as an anomaly).

So yeah, I believe we need to adapt. Maybe the improvements we made in the WR room get us there. I just think the WR1 is the last missing link. I just don't know how any defense even on their best day can stop us then.

Originally Posted by penguinz (Post 16970355)

Complete bullshit. You are just trying to make it fit your narrative which it doesn't.

All the games have been a field goal difference.

Each of KC's losses has been because they made boneheaded mistakes that were not of any doing by Cincy's D.

KC lost those games vs Cincy winning them.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 16970378)

Let's talk about those games.

1. Buffalo. The Chiefs had 3 possessions in the 4th quarter and had a FG, a 3-and-out, and a 1-play drive that ended on an INT.

Healthy Von Miller was significantly impacting that game.

2. Bengals. The Chiefs literally had two possesions in the 4th quarter, coming off opening the second half with back-to-back TD drives. The first ended in the Kelce fumble (when they had just picked up a huge chunk to get to midfield and looked to be in business) and the second was a missed FG (Which was a 55-yard try that came after that sack stopped a good drive).

3. Rams. Holding a 20-10 lead entering the 4th quarter, the Chiefs burned the first six minutes of the quarter and threw an INT on 3rd and goal. Then kicked a FG. Then kicked a FG.

They were absolutely dominating the Rams, drove the ball to the goalline on the last "real" drive, and the game was never in doubt. Vanilla effort with a big lead against a team that had no chance with the QB it was using.

4. Broncos part 1. Only one TD in the second half, that was a game where the Chiefs led 27-0 at one point, clearly took the foot off the gas, and had a hard time dialing it back in. It happens. The second half did feature a pair of long drives, one that gave the Chiefs a 2-score lead headed into the 4th, and the other to close the game out and not let Denver have the ball back, down a score.

5. Broncos part 2. 3 drives. One TD. One punt. One drive that ended on kneel downs after picking up a first down.

6. Texans. The offense put up a TD and had a missed FG on its other drive in the 4th quarter. Then punted and scored a TD in OT to win it. Not an offensive issue.

The idea that the Chiefs had a consistent track record of performing "terribly" in the 4th quarter of these games is just not in line with reality.

Excluding knee downs, I see 16 drives for 30 points, with two drives that ended in missed FGs, in the 4th quarter of these games. That's 1.875 points per drive, or about a 10th of a point off average for the NFL. Tack on the missed FG, and you're back into top 10 NFL territory.

And considering that many of these games featured drives where KC had a lead and was focused on killing the clock, that's pretty darn good. Definitely not "terrible."

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16970379)

Lol, I guess “a win is a win” only counts when the Chiefs are on the right side of that aphorism, eh?

Pretty much why I never use that one myself. Same as “we have the best pass-rush in the NFL” - circa 2018 just prior to the AFCCG.

Ditto our “best 3rd down defense” of the same year.

Or any of the half dozen other silly things people say, like “we have the number one offense,” based on a single stat like total yards, while completely ignoring any stat that doesn’t conform to that one metric.

But whatever. I’ve pretty much covered all this multiple times now. Either you can read or you can’t.

Originally Posted by dlphg9 (Post 16970385)

Some people in this thread have gone full ****ing reerun. Seriously bitching about our team that won the Super Bowl, because they've become obsessed with an old WR that'll probably play in 10 games this season.

Originally Posted by Mecca (Post 16970394)

I don't really think anyone is obsessed to be honest. I think it just comes down to that people would like to think we are far and away the best team and well that move probably does that going into the year.