Royals Top 60 Prospects: #12-1
You've waited, you've had sleepless night, you've dreamed of this day---who (or perhaps: in what order) are the Royals' Top 12 Prospects. If the Royals are to ever climb out of the deep dark hole they've dug, they will need some of these players to become stars--perhaps have one who can put up a few MVP type seasons.
But we aren't quite done yet, next week I'll wrap up the series by putting out a little something I call The Overview.
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12. Brett Eibner--CF--DOB:10/2/88
The Royals took Eibner in the 2nd Round of the 2010 draft out of the University of Arkansas. He hit 333/455/718 as Junior. He had a 39/55 BB/K ratio in 216 at bats. He was considered a 1st Round talent as a pitcher and something close to that as a hitter. Most teams preferred him being a pitcher but he really wanted to be a position player. He signed as a CF for $1.2 million. He was hurt so he didn't get in any time in a pro game. He did play at Instructional League and was, from reports, impressive as a potential 5 tool center fielder. From his stats in college, strikeouts could be a problem for him--but he has above average power and should draw some walks. His defense is supposed to be good. His could be a poor man's Grady Sizemore or perhaps Chris Young would be a good comparison. The addition of Lorenzo Cain means the Royals can give Eibner plenty of minor league at bats and not feel the need to rush him. He could start the year at Kane County or Wilmington in 2011.
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11. Cheslor Cuthbert--3B--DOB:11/16/92
The Royals signed Cuthbert out of Nicaragua in 2009 for $1.35 million. According to Baseball America, the island he is from off of Nicaragua used to be under U.S. control and he already knows English--which makes the transition easier--especially when he goes to full season ball. His calling card is his bat where he projects to hit for average and power. He put up pretty good numbers at Surprise and Idaho Falls in 2010--especially for being 17. Unfortunately, he got hurt and missed the last month of the year. There have been some questions about his glove when he signed but he showed a good glove during his pro debut. Cuthbert has a big ceiling but a long ways to go to reach it. If he hadn't gotten injured, I would have been pretty confident he start at Kane County. It's more of a question mark now. If he can impress in Spring Training, he might get the full season assignment but he may need some more time in short season ball/stay in extended Spring Training and then go to Kane County.
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10. Aaron Crow--RHP--DOB:11/11/86
Aaron Crow was the Royals 1st Round pick in 2009--after being the Nats 1st Round pick in 2008 and not signing. His 2010 was not good--especially the time at Northwest Arkansas. But his FIP at AA was 4.76 which isn't good but it's a heck of a lot better than his actual ERA. He got 63% ground ball rate there which is very good. But his command/control was bad. His FIP at Wilmington was 3.26 and he was able to display much better control. The reports on his stuff were still encouraging. His fastball was still in the low-mid 90s with good movement and he still had the good slider. The change-up is alright but definitely the third pitch in his arsenal. Several places have mentioned he would be an excellent closer candidate--but I hope they continue to give him the chance to start. I think of Crow a little bit like Eric Hosmer's prospect status a year ago--a talented guy who had a bad year--but if you dig around there are still reasons to really like this guy: good stuff and strong ground ball tendencies and could still become a #2 starter. He is a candidate to bounce back in 2011--he'll probably be at AA or AAA and if he pitches well he could see the big league roster during the summer.
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9. Christian Colon--2B--DOB:5/14/89
The Royals took Colon with the #4 overall pick in the 2010 draft. He had an outstanding summer 2009 for Team USA before breaking his leg pretty badly. He came back to Long Beach State and it took a little bit for him to hit his stride. He hit 358/447/631 at <STRIKE>Long Beach State</STRIKE> Cal State Fullerton during his junior season with a 34/18 BB/K ratio. The Royals signed him and sent him to Wilmington. He had a really rough start--something like 0-18. But he gradually improved his offensive numbers as the season went on. Colon projects to hit for average, should draw some walks and some power. The Royals insisted when they drafted Colon, they intended to keep him at SS. However, with the addition of Alcides Escobar, the Royals will probably shift Colon to 2B. He is supposed to be really sound defensively, just not very quick--especially after breaking his leg. He should be above average at 2B. Colon held his own offensively after an aggressive assignment to Wilmington. In 2011, he should flourish offensively and defensively at AA.
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8. Jake Odorizzi--RHP--DOB:3/27/90
The player further away from the big leagues in the Greinke trade, Odorizzi has a ceiling as high or higher than any of the other three players the Royals received. The Brewers took Odorizzi in the Supplement 1st Round of the 2008 draft out of High School in Illinois. He was one of the top HS pitchers in the draft (taken just a few picks before the Royals took Mike Montgomery). Milwaukee waited to put him in full season ball until last year--but he put up really good numbers in his first extended season. He struck out a bunch of guys, had decent control (that got better as the year went on), and was stingy with the longball. Odorizzi features a low-mid 90s fastball with a power breaking ball (there has been some debate as to whether it is a true slider or not). The change-up is alright--improving but not great. He has good command of his pitches. Look for really eye popping numbers at Wilmington in2011--and I think he will zoom up prospects charts over the coming year. In fact, if he does well at High A, I could see him moving to AA pretty quickly--if there is room for him in that rotation.
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7. Dan Duffy--LHP--DOB:12/21/88
It is hard to remember now, but in about mid-April the Royals farm system looked like it might be in for a long season. Mike Moustakas was coming off a bad 2009 and was hurt and Dan Duffy had walked away from baseball--and it didn't sound like he was coming back. Thankfully he returned and with a bonus--an uptick in velocity. Duffy has been successful from the moment he started playing pro ball. The highest ERA he's had at any given stop was the 3.38 he posted 2 2/3 IP for the Surprise Royals last year. His numbers almost always consist of lots of Ks/low walk rate/low HR rate. He was considered a good prospect but his stuff was not considered 'ace material'. But last year, he was working low-mid 90s from the left side with good movement. His curve can be a plus pitch but it is still inconsistent. His changeup is average to above average. He has become a little divisive to evaluators. Some folks see a pitcher with ace potential while others still see him as a decent #3. He also pitched in the Arizona Fall League where his numbers were, for the first time, not good: ERA over 8 in 15 IP--but that league is notorious for being a hitters' league. Duffy could go back to AA, advance to AAA, or he could win a Major League job in Spring Training. I'm not sure if the Royals will try to limit his innings increase from last year to this year--that will be something to keep an eye on.
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#6 Chris Dwyer--LHP--DOB:1/10/88
Chris Dwyer was the Royals 4th Round of the 2009 draft out of Clemson. Dwyer was the baseball draft equivalent of an unicorn: the extremely rare draft eligible freshman. He repeated a couple years of school (I believe his parents wanted him to do that for athletic reasons). Thus, he was 21 during his freshman season and eligible for the draft. He was inconsistent during his freshman season but his talent and stuff were evident. He signed with the Royals for $1.45 million. Dwyer has a fastball that is in the low 90s--reaching 94 at times. His curveball is a plus pitch--it can be devastating at times and his change-up can be above average as well. The potential for 3 plus pitches is why he is ranked this high but as you can see his control is something he will have to work on. He's been a flyball pitcher so far in his career--so he will need to keep the longball in check. He pitched well in Wilmington last year and pitched pretty good in limited innings at AA. A back strain kept him out the last 6 weeks of the season. As far as I know, he is healthy and should start 2011 at AA. He profiles as a #2 or #3 starter.
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#5 John Lamb--LHP--DOB:7/10/90
The Royals have built much of their farm system on a lot of above slot spending in the draft. However, in John Lamb the Royals simply found a gem outside the top couple rounds of the draft. Lamb had been an impressive HS pitcher but broke his arm in a car accident and missed his Senior season. The Royals went ahead and took him in the 5th Round of the 2009 draft--and Lamb signed for close to slot money. Lamb has a low 90s fastball that can be a good pitch. His curve and change also can be good pitches--he needs to trust them more. Lamb has very good control and is advanced for his age. He dominated at Low-A and High-A in 2010. His numbers at AA don't look quite as good but his FIP there was 3.89. Lamb is also considered a fierce competitor--I think I've read the term "bulldog" applied to him. I'm not sure if that makes him a better prospect but its something that folks like to mention. I'm guessing he will go back to AA for 2011. He has the potential to be a good #2 and if things go really well, he could be an #1.
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#4 Mike Montgomery--LHP--DOB:7/1/89
Montgomery topped this list a year ago. He ranks #4 this year--not due to performance issues--but I prefer high ceiling bats to high ceiling arms--and Monty has a bit of injury concern lingering from last year. Montgomery started the year off completely dominant at High-A--including an amazing early season outing --7ip, 2h, 1r, 0w, 13k, 84 pitches, 64 strikes--I think it was BA's JJ Cooper that called it the best pitching performance he's ever seen in minor league baseball. He was soon promoted to AA but suffered a strained forearm that landed him on the DL. He wasn't quite the same coming back from the injury--velocity at times was lacking and his control suffered. He did go ahead and pitch in the Arizona Fall League where he pitched 10.1 IP, 13h, 7r, 7er, 3hr, 2bb, 11k. When he's healthy, Montgomery features a very good fastball--that can reach 95 and with downward movement that produces a lot of ground balls. He change-up is also a very good pitch. What was most impressive early in 2010 was that his curve had improved and become a good pitch also. Put it all together and Montgomery has the makings of a #1--with health being the big concern. He will probably start 2011 at AA or AAA and could force his way on the big league roster late in the year.
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#3 Mike Moustakas--3B--DOB:9/11/88
I think every ranking of Royals Prospects I've seen has Moose at either #1 or #3. If you value power and like your prospects almost ready to go, then Moose is your #1. If you prefer a more complete hitting package with better on base skills and don't mind waiting another year, Myers and the Hoz rank above Moose. I've got Moose at #3 but in my overall ranking of baseball prospects, they are very close to each other (Myers, Hoz and Moose rank within 4 slots of each other--I'll post my overall prospect list in the The Overview). Moose, the #2 overall picks in the 2007 draft, recovered from a disappointing 2009 to put up video game numbers in 2010--326/369/630 with 41 doubles, 36 HR, 34 BB (that's right, more HR than BB), and 67 K). His home/road splits at AA were crazy-716 OPS on the road/1379 at home). He was finally promoted to AAA in July and initially struggled there. He had a Quinn-like streak of not walking at one point but things finally clicked and he got red hot again--this time without the crazy home/road split. Moose has tremendous bat speed that helps generate that amazing power. While he will never be an on base machine--if he can keep the walk rate between 6-8% he should be OK. He also doesn't strike out much--again his quick wrists allow him to get to all kinds of pitches. Moose should be able to stick at 3rd for the foreseeable future--his range isn't great but beyond that he is a pretty good fielder with a great arm. Space doesn't allow me to fully pontificate on Moose's legendary leadership skills. Moose is a hard prospect to project--the power combined with low BB and K rates make him to categorize. I will be happy if he can provide power in the middle of the lineup and get on base at an average clip. Moose has the best shot of any Royals' prospect in a long time to break Bye-Bye's HR record of 36. Moose will be at AAA to start 2011 until the beginning of June when he will take over 3rd base duties for the big club.
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#2 Eric Hosmer--1B--DOB:10/24/89
I was wrong and I was right. I was wrong because I blasted the Royals for taking Hosmer over Smoak in the 2008 draft--Smoak is still a good prospect but I think most folks would pick Hosmer now. I was right because Hosmer had a snake-bitten 2009 and I predicted he would bounce back in 2010--and he surpassed my expectations. First, he went back to where 2009 ended--Wilmington--and expelled the demons of the past by destroying the Carolina League--putting up slightly better numbers at home--William Frawley Stadium--a place that has destroyed the psyche of lesser hitters. He then went to AA where he displayed the "best power in the 2008 draft class" that had been missing up until then. At AA, he hit better at home but still posted an 889 OPS on the road. Hosmer is an above average 1st baseman--but he has a canon for an arm. We heard this offseason for the first time that he has been taking some fly balls in the outfield. It's a really tough call as to whether to move him or not--but I would like to see him try the OF. Hosmer has the ceiling to be one of the elite offensive forces in the league--he should hit for average, get on base and hit for power. He could start at either AA or AAA--I think the Royals would like him to debut in the big leagues in 2012--but he might force the issue this year.
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#1 Wil Myers--C/OF--DOB: 12/10/90
While Moose and Hoz exercised demons in 2010--Wil Myers simply excelled. There were rumors that the Royals might take Myers with the #12 overall pick in the 2009 draft--I was dead set against it--it turns out he was available (because of his price tag) with the 3rd Round Pick. It also turns out he was more than worthy of that #12 pick. His first month at Burlington the numbers were not great--part of that was due to some bad luck and his BB/ K rate was not good. But then he really turned it on, hitting for average/power and walking more than he struck out. He was a bit overshadowed in the Midwest League by Mike Trout. I think Trout is a great prospect--and I would rank him slightly higher than Myers--but I think the gap between them is smaller than most people think.
Midwest League numbers
Trout 12.6% BB 14% K .165 ISP 978 OPS
Myers 14.9% BB 16.1%K .164 ISP 908 OPS
They were both promoted to High-A. Myers to the pitching friendly Carolina League and Trout to the hitting friendly California League. Trout--785 OPS, Myers--957 OPS. Again, I get it--Trout plays a plus CF, there are big questions if Myers will stay at C--and Trout is 8 months younger. I just think Myers is a tad underrated. At this point I actually am hoping he'll end up in RF. I think he'll get more at-bats and simply based on the fact that he's a pretty good athlete, I think he could be an asset on defense out there. Myers will hit for average and could very well be among the league leaders in OBP. He may not hit 40+ HRs but I could see him hitting 20-25 (Moose's ISP in the Midwest League was .196 just for comparison). Put it all together and I think he can rack up some big WAR numbers. For 2011, he could go back to the Carolina League or they could bump him up to AA. If they move him to RF, I could see him starting at AA.
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