Lex Luthor |
07-19-2015 12:51 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. tegu
(Post 11605914)
I know people are worried about Minnesota but you really don't need to be. With 71 games to go they have to play 9 games over .500 to win 90 games which is a .563 winning percentage. That is higher than they have been pretty much all year.
For the Royals to get 91 wins they only have to play one game over .500 the rest of the way. Given that we likely finish closer to 95 wins their task becomes nearly insurmountable. I am not worried at all.
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I've seen this argument many times over the years. It's a completely bogus and meaningless argument. It's no more than wishful thinking on the part of the fans of the team currently in the lead.
A hot week or two by the second place team combined with a slump by the first place team, and the argument is easily and completely proven to be false.
And I don't have to go back very far to find an example of how bad this argument is. On July 1st the standings in the AL West looked like this:
Team..........W......L.......%.....GB
Astros.........47....34......580....--
Angels.........41....38......519...5.0
You could have easily said this about the AL West race on July 1st:
Quote:
I know Astros fans are worried about the Angels, but you really don't need to be. With 81 games to go the Angels would have to play 11 games over .500 to win 88 games which is a .566 winning percentage. That is higher than they have been pretty much all year.
For the Astros to get 88 wins they only have to play one game over .500 the rest of the way. Given that the Astros likely finish closer to 94 wins (they are currently on pace to win 94 games) the Angels' task becomes nearly insurmountable. I am not worried at all.
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These are the standings of the AL West this morning:
Team..........W......L.......%.....GB
Angels.........50....40......556....--
Astros.........50....43......538...1.5
How's that argument looking now? It took a little more than 2 weeks for the Angels to turn a 5 game deficit into a 1.5 game lead.
An argument based strictly upon winning percentages for the rest of the season when almost half a season remains to be played is totally meaningless and easily disproven.
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