Thinking about 70%....purely winning the division, do not believe we stand a chance any other way.

I wouldn't be too surprised if Drew Brees' eczema scar slowly morphed into a vagina over the course of the season; then Glenn Dorsey ****ed it mercilessly in the SUPERBOWL.

I voted 70%....division is there for the taking as San Diego is beyond Jekyll and Hyde right now and we're off to a great start.

I can't wait for these next two games...litmus test just to see how far we've come.

Because Glenn Dorsey is such a world beater with his 2.5 career sacks.

I'm rooting for you guys to make the playoffs, I just don't trust Cassel and I'm not sure how you guys'll do further into the season when other teams are seeing you as legitimate threat.

Wow, I was surprised how high my estimate turned out. I used my software after roughly ranking the teams in 5 groups. Power ratings are the the same for each team in each group. This is my gut feel of how things will shake out (in terms of team strength) by the end of the season. I then simulated the season 5000 times, applied the tiebreakers etc.

I came out with a 67% chance of us making the playoffs. Win probability graph in the next post.

Group 1 (elite)
IND, NO ,PHI, PIT

Group 2 (next level down)
SD, DAL, NE, NYJ, GB, HOU, TEN, BAL

Group 3 (middle of the road)
CIN, MIA, SEA, KC, NYG, ATL, CHI, MIN

Group 4 (starting to stink)
DEN, OAK, SF, JAX, TB, CAR, WAS, ARI

Group 5 (stink, stank, stunk)
BUF, STL, DET, CLE

I guess the AFC West is contractually obligated to send someone.

Below is a bar graph showing the probability of winning x games. In the red shaded regions we make the playoffs. In the gray shaded regions we don't.

Huh. 10-11 wins would be pure insanity IMO, but with our schedule, I suppose it's possible. Still, not gonna hold my breath.

70%.

50-50 shows no balls.

Damn. You're a definite "glass is half full" person.

Yeah, the individual game odds for the Chiefs didn't look right. I moved some of the sliders to where I thought they should be. It shifted the distribution a full game to the left and dropped our playoff chances to about 45%, which I feel is about right.

Sounds about right to me.

It won't be as a wildcard. The only way is to win the west.

I don't think we have a good feel for this season yet, though. You have seasons that'll fluctuate... like last year, where you had teams undefeated deep into the season and 2-3 totally dominant teams. Then other seasons where there are good teams, but things are a lot more leveled out.

Just like a couple years ago when the Titans had the best record in the AFC... or the year the Broncos had a first round bye with Plummer. Or that year the Raiders went to the SB. Honestly so far it feels more like one of those seasons than one like last year where there are 2-3 super dominant teams. Too early to say though.

It's definitely like that, but the thing is, I feel like we are going to win against teams we should beat. We aren't contenders yet, but we have a great chance to make the POs with this schedule.