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-   -   Chiefs Bengals gained 60% Win Probability from penalties against Chiefs (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=341683)

Jewish Rabbi 01-04-2022 02:56 PM
Maybe don’t let a single guy get 270 receiving yards and the penalties don’t really matter

penguinz 01-04-2022 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brother (Post 16052136)
Eh. It's not nonsense to correctly state that games are steered a certain way. We've certainly benefited at times too. Cincy doesn't win if the game was called correctly....period
Cincy doesn't win if KC actually plays the second half. They clearly thought the game was over at half time.

Mecca 01-04-2022 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simply Red (Post 16052185)
I will say this - I didn't watch the game but have watched snippets on YT. This Chase dude pushes off on every snap - I mean blatently, much like DeAndre Hopkins has his whole career.
That's the game now, a few years ago they said if a receiver extends his arm at the top of a route that's OPI, today all receivers do it and never get called for it.

ThaVirus 01-04-2022 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeF (Post 16052122)
The Chiefs sure to seem to get their fair share of it "going in the other direction"

The Super Bowl against Tampa Bay went crazy against the Chiefs. Beyond annoying.
Keep your ear to the streets and you'll find a lot of (dipshit) fans claim we won our last Super Bowl because of the refs. They specifically mention our DBs and OL never being called for holding.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Superturtle (Post 16052182)
Two fourth down penalties were legit.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">haven&#39;t seen anyone post these. i&#39;m trying my hardest to not see anything here. <a href="https://t.co/sJAMbHsdfb">pic.twitter.com/sJAMbHsdfb</a></p>&mdash; John Sheeran (@John__Sheeran) <a href="https://twitter.com/John__Sheeran/status/1478450796182265867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
They're legit. At some point you've just gotta let these ****ing guys go.

ToxSocks 01-04-2022 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mecca (Post 16052324)
That's the game now, a few years ago they said if a receiver extends his arm at the top of a route that's OPI
That lasted for like, all of one season.

KChiefs1 01-04-2022 03:48 PM
I hate referees.


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BlackOp 01-04-2022 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bugeater (Post 16052151)
I'm trying to think of a playoff game that the Chiefs won on a call as egregious as "forward progress" vs the Titans, and I'm coming up blank.
I'm trying to come up with an example where the Chiefs have ever WON a game in the final 4 minutes based on controversial calls...

Conversely...we have the infamous Raiders game as time expired, The Chargers OPI game which the NFL used as a teaching moment on the last play. This Bengals game...The Chargers 4th and 9 DPI and no call on the Hail Mary muggings.....not the final 4 minutes but last season Raider loss where 13-17 points were lost, the Texans game where they called DPI... Mahomes thinks he has a free play, chucks it up for an INT then they pick up the flag....Chiefs were routing Houston on a national stage. The Titans Triplett playoff game...The Patriot AFCCG. The Patriot game where no penalties were called on NE.

crayzkirk 01-04-2022 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackOp (Post 16052414)
I'm trying to come up with an example where the Chiefs have ever WON a game in the final 4 minutes based on controversial calls...

Conversely...we have the infamous Raiders game as time expired, The Chargers OPI game which the NFL used as a teaching moment on the last play. This Bengals game...The Chargers 4th and 9 DPI and no call on the Hail Mary muggings.....not the final 4 minutes but last season Raider loss where 13-17 points were lost, the Texans game where they called DPI... Mahomes thinks he has a free play, chucks it up for an INT then they pick up the flag....Chiefs were routing Houston on a national stage. The Titans Triplett playoff game...The Patriot AFCCG. The Patriot game where no penalties where called on NE.
You forgot the playoff game vs Denver where Tony Gonzalez was declared out on a TD play. I'm not even going to bring up the Vaseline game...

OnTheWarpath15 01-04-2022 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeF (Post 16052174)
That's pretty presumptive.

Just because it isn't all-encompassing, doesn't mean it isn't worth anything. The refs clearly influenced the outcome of the Cincy/Chiefs game.

Maybe they helped the Chiefs in other games, but they did hurt the Chiefs against the Bengals.
Bad non-calls have an impact on the game as well, correct?

To only focus on the so-called bad calls (especially when several of them were the right call) has an impact on the data.

T-post Tom 01-04-2022 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by penguinz (Post 16052304)
Cincy doesn't win if Spags makes coverage adjustments in the second half. He clearly took an hour or so nap at half time.
FYP :D

loochy 01-04-2022 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackOp (Post 16052414)
I'm trying to come up with an example where the Chiefs have ever WON a game in the final 4 minutes based on controversial calls...
The Dwayne Rudd game? That's the best I can think of...

Fish 01-04-2022 05:20 PM
It wasn't all against the Chiefs, according to this..

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The biggest change in WP% from a penalty in this game can AGAINST the Bengals (a holding call on Sample).<br><br>Here is the WPA of every penalty in the game. The top 5 were<br><br>CIN off holding<br>KC encroachment<br>CIN false start<br>CIN DPI<br>KC off holding <a href="https://t.co/uo91NOOL2b">pic.twitter.com/uo91NOOL2b</a></p>&mdash; Shaun Newkirk (@Shauncore) <a href="https://twitter.com/Shauncore/status/1478446557372600325?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Bugeater 01-04-2022 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by loochy (Post 16052480)
The Dwayne Rudd game? That's the best I can think of...
What was controversial about that? It was just flat out stupidity on his part.

Spott 01-04-2022 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bugeater (Post 16052529)
What was controversial about that? It was just flat out stupidity on his part.
Yeah, he through his helmet about 10 seconds before the play was over so it was pretty obvious.

Rain Man 01-04-2022 05:45 PM
I just ran the numbers myself and came up with 100 percent.


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