I agree, near the trade deadline we might see him go but the only way he gets moved this offseason is if we get a Montero type position player, a pitcher with an upside close to Greinke's and another fringe prospect.

I am also not sure the Yankees are convinced that Greinke can be successful in NY

I think he probably could in 1 or 2 seasons with a winning team, but the thing I'd be concerned about if I were the Yankees or Red Sox is re-signing him. They usually just take it for granted that once they get a player, well of course he's theirs until they dont want him anymore but I could imagine him traded to a team like that, play really well, and then say "nah, I've had enough of this city" when presented with a huge offer after 2012.

Then it seems what the organization needs to do one of two things with Greinke this offseason:

1) Sign him to a two year extension, thus keeping him under contract through at least 2014.

or

2) Trade him for the best haul you can this offseason(C, CF, P).

What is Greinke worth? Take a look at what Boston just sent SD and improve the overall quality. And if DM is looking for specific positions in return, he needs his ass kicked a little.

Top prospects. No matter the position because we're not "set" anywhere. The majority of the talent in our system will NOT develop as hoped. It never does. For anyone.

Half a team.

Neither of these will likely happen, and probably shouldnt happen. His value does not decline between now and the July deadline. Unless we are blown away, there's no harm with going into the year hoping we are miraculously competitive, giving us a decent chance to re-sign him after 2011. I also imagine Zack would want a 4+ year deal at that point.

Problem is this simply isn't going to happen.

Greinke could easily go out and start 0-8 again and teams will simply decide he's not worth as much as he is right now.

The team in 2011 is going to be considerable worse than 2010.

Putting forth a decent effort in FA would also demonstrate something to Zack. If you remember correctly, he was one of the more vocal proponents of the Meche signing.

Remember when Allard Baird would accept nothing other than a C, 3B and P for Carlos Beltran? Yeah, that worked out well.

Yes. This. A million times this. Every damned time we traded someone for X position, we got our ass kicked. Unless its something we dont even remotely need (1B/DH types), an A/B prospect is an A/B prospect. They can often learn a new position, and if there's a road block someone can be traded. When you trade a big fat blue chip you want value, worry about what you are going to do with all the little red and blue chips you get in return later.

That, and being SMART in FA.....

Complete nonsense.

Right now, the Royals are better for several reasons: 1. Kendall is hurt. 2. Guillen is gone. 3. Ankiel is gone. 4. Spork is gone. 5. Right now I'm hoping for Betancourt to be gone.

pour me some of what you're drinking

Did we hire a new GM? Ok, I keed.

Yes, completely agree.

That is wrong. Its not like us internet baseball nerds are brilliant and the GM's are all blind stat-monkeys, the rest of the league is fully aware of Greinke's motivation issues. As long as his stuff is there and his ERA isn't 6, people aren't going to be all that concerned about a few games.

It's called baseball knowledge. Little fizzy but delicious.

You better hope they don't make Dayton Moore jersies. If they do, I am totally getting you one for Christmas. :D

LMAO.

It will go nicely with the Cassel one I might have to purchase, too.

Read today that Texas made an offer to DM but the Royals dismissed it as being way less than they were looking for.

You have to stay open to the possibility that KC has been trying to move Zach for a while now and they're simply asking too much for him.

I'd rather have 2 mlb ready players (one with all star potential) over 3 guys who may never pan out...

What do you need to drink to think that the 2011 Royals will be better than 2010? Its obvious, simply because of the sheer magnitude of suck that got penciled into our lineup for April 2010. I doubt they will have a winning record, but a fluke .500 year isn't out of the question, this team is likely to win around 73 games and play 0.450 baseball.

J Dyson CF
M Aviles 2B
B Butler DH
W Betemit 3B
K Kaihue 1B
Y Bentancourt
B Pena C
A Gordon LF
M Maier RF


That's your team right now. Seriously. It's these guys

The consensus I've read among the non-Royals fan observers who also aren't pulling for a team trading for him is that the Royals are correct. If this offer isn't available now, it could be in July. Teams are kicking the tires just to see if they can get him easily. More specifically, the prospect guy for Baseball prospectus recently said that if the Rangers offer Perez, Scheppers and Profar for Greinke, the Royals should say no at this time.

Not to mention that the person who penciled in that shit lineup is gone, too. Yost might not be a world beater, but he is a legit ML manager, which is a ton more than one can say about Barnyard Trey.

Are you even aware of the carnival of horrors we had in the beginning of 2010? Really, you are trying to argue we are now worse? That is an argument you can not win.

I admire your optimism. And I will be there (in spirit) opening day to cheer the Royals on.

But I def believe that this will be a setup year waiting for Mous, Hosmer and the pitchers to get ready for 2012...

I'm not saying "Print 'EM!", its just that there was so much wailing and gnashing of teeth last winter when people began to realize what we were going to have, I'm surprised you didn't remember. I can close my eyes and still read about the horrors of a lineup where we had Guillen, signed old-ass Kendall, and prepared to unleash the mighty Ankiel for cleanup.

This is still a losing team, we're just going from "holy God this lineup is going to suck" to just merely "crummy"

Just noticed that some reporters in Toronto are making noise. Blue Jays think the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox will all fall back and this could be their big chance to win the AL East. The rumor coming out of Canada (who knows if it is reliable or total BS) is more attractive than most of what people have been talking about from Texas or New York. This isn't enough of a no-brainer to send me rushing out to pack Greinke's bags, but it is big enough to make me think about it.

Kyle Drabek, Travis Snider, J.P. Arencibia, and either Brett Cecil or Anthony Gose

for Greinke. :hmmm:

If that went down then Drabek would have been traded for Holliday and Greinke. He better be his old man and then some. :)

Snider is interesting, but Arencibia better be tits because young pitchers who have had Tommy John's don't excite me.

That would be a pretty nice deal.

You probably won't get a much better deal than this from anyone else. Whether or not the R's like Drabek and Arencibia are probably the deciding factors.

Bob Elliott has some pretty good connections with the Anthopoulos administration (he didn't when JP was running things), so I wouldn't be surprised if there was something to this.

But that particular offer right there is too much for Greinke, IMO. None of those guys are really prospects any more (and Snider/Cecil have had productive major league seasons already). If I'm the Jays, I'm really reluctant to part with Snider in any deal.

If 1 year of Halladay (+ the opportunity to talk extension)= Drabek, Wallace, D'Arnaud.....what does 2 years of Greinke (+ the opportunity to talk extension) cost?

Rany just wrote an article that looks nutty at first glance, but after a few thousand words he makes his case for it.

The Royals should offer Carl Crawford a 7 year $140MM contract.

Speaking of prospects, how did Boston acquire Gonzalez for their #1, #3, and #6 guys (none of which were pro ready)? That makes no ****ing sense for the Padres.

I don't think you can justify spending that much money on a guy simply to get close to .500, especially when he may be regressing by the time the Royals are ready to contend.

Getting to .500 is not really his argument. The Royals are in a weird position where we are going to get very young and very inexpensive very soon. The article also goes on at length about his age.

The Royals are going to have the bulk of their roster costing them only about 10 million by 2013-2014. Even after counting everyone's scheduled raises and leaving room for Greinke, we've likely got a TON of money available to spend for just a few spots.

He's arguing that even though we likely have nothing to play for in 2011 (other than convincing Greinke to stay), we might in 2012-2013, and he's more likely to help us than anyone who might be available next winter.

I just think that's a lot of money to spend on a guy for a season when you won't be contending. I'd save the free agent signings for when the team is closer.

He talks about the guys that will come available next season....it's not pretty. Go read the whole things, it's very convincing.

I love this time of year...not what it used to be but I still find it fascinating.

Found this:
http://jaysjournal.com/2010/12/04/th...aga-continues/
http://jaysjournal.com/2010/11/27/th...st-comparison/
http://jaysjournal.com/prospects-aff...top-prospects/
http://jaysjournal.com/tag/kyle-drabek/
http://jaysjournal.com/tag/travis-snider/
http://jaysjournal.com/tag/jp-arencibia/

1. Kyle Drabek, SP
2. J.P. Arencibia, C
3. Anthony Gose, CF

That about covers the Royals needs right there huh?

Not sure I could read an entire 4000 word post about the Royals signing Carl Crawford, but I did a quick look through.

Jorge Posada
Jose Reyes
Jimmy Rollins
Jason Bartlett
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Kubel
Carlos Beltran
J.D. Drew

That list is pretty terrible, indeed. He might be on to something.


Edit: Though, I did just read Rany's entire article on the Chiefs' playoff chances. Winning that Chargers game means everything.

As a Jays fan, I have to agree with him. Giving up both Snider and Drabek would be too much for Greinke. To me, Greinke's 2009 was an outlier and not indicative of what he's going to do going forward, especially if he moves to the AL East. He's an above-average, nearly elite pitcher, sure, but would he really be that much of an upgrade on Drabek going forward (the team's projected #5 guy next year) to justify giving up Snider and other top prospects? Especially when you'll have to pay him 20 million a season in a few years? I don't think so.

This guy is more in favor of it, but then again, he was likely drunk when he wrote this: http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/

If I was the Jays, I might go for something like Drabek, Arencibia, and Gose. The Royals are still getting 2 major league ready guys and a top prospect, and the Jays don't have to give up proven quality players like Cecil and Snider with high ceilings.

After sleeping on it for a night, there's no way in hell I'd pull the trigger on the speculated deal from the Blue Jays. We'd lose that trade.

Second, I feel somewhat justified by Rany's argument for Crawford. He was someone whom I talked about during the '10 season, and this signing would be a lot of sense.

I suggest an opening bid of 6 for 108: http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showt...rd#post6917906

I'd rather take the rumored deal from Texas.

Ryan Braun-OF- Brewers Dec. 5 - 10:12 am et

The Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton reports that one "off-the-wall" rumor has the Royals sending Zack Greinke to the Brewers for Ryan Braun in a straight swap.
Well, that would certainly be off-the-wall. The Brewers have Braun under control through 2015 at a bargain rate, so it's no surprise that it's been reported they will not trade him this offseason. The Greinke rumors will surely be flying everywhere during the Winter Meetings given that he's the only high-level pitcher available other than free agent Cliff Lee. He might get traded, but it's not going to be to Milwaukee for Braun.
Source: Kansas City Star
Related: Zack Greinke, Royals

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...rt=MLB&id=4048

Don't fall into the old Baird trap of trying to fill specific position holes. That's how we ended up with Teahen and Buck for Beltran.

Acquire the best talent, period.

Very interesting with the Blue Jays reportedly getting involved ...

Gives nice leverage with the Rangers if nothing else. Offers of Scheppers or Perez, Pofar and Beltre are not as attractive as Drabek, Snider and Arrencibia. If you can get the Rangers to make their offer Scheppers AND Perez, Profar and Beltre, that works out really nicely. And it's even better if you can nab Holland, too.

I think Drabek is the best RH pitching prospect in that group. Arrencibia still is pretty highly thought of, as is Snider.

Of course, I'm good with the idea of bringing in a splashy name in the hopes of resigning Zack. Even if it's a risky long-term deal.

To be clear in case people start taking it too seriously here, this is a daydream. We're killing time until the winter meetings next week when there will likely be a lot of real baseball news to discuss.

Crawford is highly unlikely to want to go to KC, and DM is highly unlikely to be willing to take such a horrifyingly big risk. Yes you can make an argument for it and yes if I was presented with that deal I would probably do it and start praying for his health, but a huge 7-year deal for anyone would be terrifying. He doesn't even have to get hurt, if his skills age a lot quicker than expected that massive fantasy contract becomes a bad albatross. (But then, I get back to that question: if not him, then who? If mission 2012 is a success, we have at least $40MM/year to burn for a few years)

I don't know about that. I like Perez more than Drabek, and I like Profar more than either Snider or Arencibia.

I'm not sure Arencibia's defense is good enough to be a full-time catcher, making him a potential 1B/DH, which we have way too many of between Butler, Kila, and Hosmer. Snider is another bat first guy that is a defensive liability in left field.

I'd rather get a top up the middle defender in Profar who can slot in at shortstop if Colon eventually needs to move to 2B.

And we all skeet skeet.

I'm not a huge Perez guy. I k ow he's played "up" levels a lot, against much older players, but he hasn't been that impressive IMO. I like Drabek's makeup and that he's a RH. He also has ace-of-staff potential, and I think he's more likely to get there than Perez.

I know there are questions about Arrencibia's defense, but he and Snider are top of the line hitting prospects and much closer to big league impact than Profar.

Still, if the Rangers can be leveraged into upping the ante to Scheppers, Profar, holland and Perez, how do you top that?

For their part, the Royals are publicly saying all the right things. Even if some are skeptical or dont believe it, the Royals are playing poker, saying they are perfectly fine with keeping Zack all the way through 2012 and collecting the draft picks if he doesn't re-sign.

http://www.kansascity.com/2010/12/04...ls-should.html

You like a 17 year old kid over 2 major league players with star potential? That doesn't make much sense when you account for level of risk. And Drabek is more valuable than Perez for the same reason.

Neither are the Jays, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded.

Wrong, Snider is a good defensive LF.

Apparently Jays are on his no-trade clause. Greinke takes me for somebody who might actually use that in a certain situation.

I've read that for many players, the no-trade clause (aside from maybe not wanting to go to a certain place) is valuable because it gives you leverage. They sometimes add larger teams you would not normally expect.

DM: Zack, we've got a trade offer from Toronto that we would like you to consider...

Zack: Really? OK, fine give me their number.

Alex Anthopoulos: Hello?

Zack: Yeah, this is Zack.

AA: Oh hi Greinke, we are excited to have you, we're going to compete for first in the AL East, you are a big part of our plans, we have a nice quiet suburb, plenty of places to hunt and fish, and the media is tiny for baseball compared to Hockey.

Zack: Yeah, great. I want an extra 3 years for 2013-2015, $25MM per.

AA: You want what?

Zack: A 3/75 extension, full no-trade, and I'm afraid I have to have a decision from you within a week. Otherwise I have to start focusing on spring training in Surprise, AZ.

*click*

What was amazing about the Hallladay negotiations this time last year was that he gave up the no-trade clause and gave the Phillies a bargain in signing him.

I don't know any places to hunt or fish in Toronto, though, haha. Maybe further north?

I dont know, its canada. There's got to be a whole lot of nothing somewhere near Toronto

In other news, The freaking nationals just handed a massive contract to Jayson Werth. 7 years, $126MM. 31 years old, right field, 5.2 WAR (bbl ref) 5.0 WAR (fangraphs), basically all offense (his glove is replacement-level). He'll probably be high-800 OPS.

Figure a WAR is worth about 4.5, discount to 4 due to his position, and assume he has already peaked, he's probably getting exactly what he's worth for the next couple years, but the Nats are taking a risk that the contract will look bad after that.

If Werth can get that at age 31 in RF, then Crawford is going to get PAID.

At some point, we're going to have to make a major move, be it a trade or FA. Are we going to be 100 percent reliant on our system/draft, arguably the single most unpredictable element in any professional sport?

Profar has superstar potential. Snider and Arencibia have the potential to have good bats, but their defensive liabilities will eventually render them as all bat, 1B/DH types. Those guys certainly have value, but up the middle players that can also hit - which Profar is projected to be - are rare and more valuable.

Of course he is very young though and anything can happen in his development, good or bad.

He was +4 runs this year, -6 runs last year. I wouldn't call that a good defensive LF. Most importantly, it's concerning that at only 22 he's already relegated to LF at best, and a full-time DH at worst. Let's face it - he's not getting any thinner or more athletic. Again, all bat guys can still have a ton of value, but the batter better come through in a big way.

Looking at KC's situation, we already have a handful of guys that are or project as 1B/DH/LF types in Butler, Kaaihue, Hosmer, and Moose. We really need some athletic, up the middle defenders to pair up with our big hitters to make our defense passable during our window of contention.

He's also 17 years old and has to go through years of successful development to even reach the point where he will even be a MLB player. The risk is enormous. He's certainly not worth two guys that are already major league players (I wouldn't really classify them prospects any more) and will be under control for 5 years.


His range took a huge improvement last season, and his arm is pretty strong. If he's going to end up as a DH, it's still years away.

I don't think trading Greinke for toolsy 17 year olds will help, though. From what I've read, they are looking for young guys that will step in immediately.

Not sure where you've been reading that. I'm sure they'd like a starter to step in and take ZG's innings, but they want guys that will hit the majors at the same time as our other top prospects, so 1-3 years from now. That is our window, which is why we are open to trading Greinke on the hope of competing big in 2013-2017.

Been reading it from the GM:
http://www.kansascity.com/2010/12/04...ls-should.html

I read the "more specific" statement as more obtuse relative to ML readiness.

If you're going to trade Greinke, I'd think you'd want to get something of a little more substance than a 19 year old who hasn't had success at the AA yet (nothing against his talent, but Perez is still a risk) and a 17 year old SS.

Yes; we'd also want Derek Holland, a 23 year old young starter who can step in and take Greinke's innings.

I think you're playing up ages way too much in this discussion. Profar and Perez are young but they're both top 50 overall prospects. I'll take a younger player over a more experienced one if he has superior talent, and especially if the younger player will be playing in the majors at the same time as as our other young prospects that we're counting on.

Still, I'm not against a trade to Toronto, and Drabek probably makes more sense than Perez given our LHP-heavy pitching prospects.

What do you think is a fair offer from Toronto for Greinke? I think a deal has to be centered around Drabek to make it happen. Would they even package Drabek and Snider together?

If they dont, we should not make the trade. I'd say Drabek and Snider is a given, then lets talk about the minor league throw-ins.

So basically the Nationals did exactly what Rany suggested the Royals do, only for a worse (older) player.

It's not ages, it's their level of development. Guys like Profar and Perez simply aren't worth that much (compared to say, a Travis Snider or Kyle Drabek) because of how much developing they still have left to do.

I don't think they'd ever consider trading both of them together. I mean...if they are going to contend in the future, they are going to need cheap, young offensive players like Snider. Drabek, on the other hand, while good, doesn't project to be much better than a lot of guys they already have (Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Marcum) and isn't much different than a guy like Zach Stewart. I suspect that he's the guy that is leading this Jays offer.

I would say that Drabek, Arencibia, and then a guy like Gose or Marisnick would be pretty fair.

I'm not even sure the Jays would be willing to trade Snider straight up for two years of Greinke.

Yeah.

Toronto has a pretty deep farm system. I'm not sure I would say it is a definite no go if they don't include both Drabek and Snider (though one would have to be in there most likely).

I wonder if Drabek, Zack Stewart, and Anthony Gose would be reasonable. Two young RHP starters and a very solid CF prospect. Toronto has a good young rotation already, so I don't know if they would be as opposed to dealing two MLB-ready starters like most teams.

We're pretty close to the same page, then, because I'd say Arencibia's value is close to Stewart's. And no, I don't think they would be that opposed to trading both of them.

Greinke, Romero, Morrow, Marcum, Cecil would be quite the rotation going forward, and they wouldn't need them.

I was initially against trading Wallace for Gose earlier this year, but I've come to realize that Wallace's ceiling is quite low and that Gose could turn out to be something like Carl Crawford, but in CF.

If that's the case, then they're just not interested in trading for Greinke.

Why trade a young, controllable power hitter for two years of a pitcher that isn't that much of an upgrade on what you already have?

If I'm the Jays, I keep Snider (or trade him in some massive deal for Justin Upton).

I'm not saying they should or shouldn't do it, but for all the reports that the Jays are interested, you have to assume Snider would be included. Oh, and saying it isn't much of an upgrade is laughable.

You are acting like 2 years ago was a fluke. If Zack Greinke is a 4 WAR pitcher, then you are right, but he's not, and the Royals/interested teams are not treating him like he is. Maybe a contending team shouldn't count on 9 WAR like 2 years ago, but its clear that Zack gets bored when he has nothing to play for.

2 years ago he was on fire, the royals fell out of contention so Greinke lost interest and piddled around, then near the end when it was clear he had a shot at Cy he was on fire again. Last year the Royals went straight down the chute and Zack piddled around all year for a merely "good" season, but when meaningful games did come around (TB at the end of the year) he turned it on again.

Greinke is an elite pitcher who needs something to play for, and there's no reason why we should have to settle for less than that kind of a haul. If no one wants to pay, then he's still ours until someone is desperate enough to pony up in July. (or we have a fluke good year and he wants to re-sign with us)

Why? He isn't a prospect in the way that these other names are. And he's worth a hell of a lot more than guys like Drabek, Arencibia, Perez, and Profar.


From a biased Royals' perspective, I can see how one would say that.

If you look at him, his 2009 season looks entirely like an outlier (2008-4.9 WAR, 2009-9.4 WAR, 2010-5.2 WAR). So we're looking at approximately a 5 WAR pitcher going forward. Very good, but not in the elite in the way that guys like Halladay, Felix, Lee, and Lincecum are.

Then if you compare him to the Jays pitchers:

2010 WAR:
Greinke-5.2 (in 220 IP)
Romero-4.0 (in 210 IP)
Morrow-3.7 (in 146 IP)

Put Romero and Morrow in an easier division like the AL Central against easier competition and the margin there becomes even less.