I think they still are the favorite and still have enough to win. But I don't think they're a club that should win 100 games again.

We were talking about this on the scout.com board today. Here are my thoughts on the Tigers and their offseason changes:

It's not just about Kinsler for Fielder. It's about Castellanos, Kinsler, SS scrap heap contingent, Smyly as SP, Joba Chamberlin and Joe Nathan, vs. Prince Fielder, Infante, Peralta/Iglesias, Fister, Joquin Benoit and Drew Smyly

We can say with certainty that Kinsler improves Detroit's defense at 2B. He is a very good defender. But from an offensive standpoint, Kinsler had a lower BA, OBP and SLG than OMAR INFANTE last year

So, it's a decent bet Kinsler won't even give Detroit the offense Infante provided a year ago (considering his career performance away from Arlington). Castellanos will NOT give them the offensive production they got from Fielder. The SS mess will be less productive offensively than Peralta and Iglesias (who was unsustainably good a year ago, but still productive). (And not as good defensively)

Smyly is a good prospect, but expecting 4 WAR out of him in his first go as a SP is a pretty high expectation. Filling Fister's production is a tough thing to do. ANd in the pen... the Tigers bullpen might actually be WORSE. Sure, it's more stable in the 9th with Nathan, but Benoit was very good in that role in the second half. It's worse in the 7th and 8th innings than when Smyly and Benoit/Jose Veras were holding down those spots.

Overall, the Tigers offense is most likely going to take a step back. Just too many regression spots, and not enough potential "bump" spots to balance that out. Torii Hunter is unlikely to improve. Miguel Cabrera, same thing. Austin Jackson was down in 2013 from what he'd been in 2012, but he played to career norms. I think he is, basically, what we saw last year.

And then there's the pitching staff. It's possible than Sanchez and Scherzer are just 6 win pitchers now. But is that more likely than each taking a step back after a career year? I'd place my bet on the latter.

I expect Verlander to pop back up to his usual levels this year, so that balances out regression from one of those guys. But probably not if BOTH regress a bit.

Detroit is still the favorite and should be. But that's a team that came back to the pack over the offseason rather than moving further out in front. They are not a slam dunk to run away with things, by any means.

Which will happen by midseason and maybe even in June.

Fangraphs actually has KC 19th. There's all sorts of ridiculousness going on in their pitching staff rankings.

Rankings that stand out as particularly bad:

Red Sox 2nd.

Yankees 4th (above, notably, the Nats, Cardinals and Dodgers, among others).

Rockies 9th (above the Rays)

Giants 14th

I like stats a ton. But stuff like this from Fangraphs is why so many in baseball laugh at stat heads. Those rankings just don't match the eye test.

Just to clarify on what Fangraphs thinks of KC's staff (and specifically the Guthrie/Vargas/Chen grouping):

They've got Vargas posting a 4.52 ERA, which would be his highest in 5 years (and his highest since becoming a full-time starter)

They've got Guthrie at 4.65, which would be HIS highest in 5 years.

And they've got Chen at 4.36, which is probably about right if he pitches 160 innings in the rotation but is still higher than 3 of his past 4 seasons in KC.

None of the trends for those pitchers have changed, really. Strikeout and walk rates are all basically the same and show no signs of spiking. Fangraphs just has a hard time ever recognizing when guys have established they can out-pitch their peripherals. And it tends to project extreme regression for those guys, every year.

Battered fan syndrome. I see this a lot on this board. This is a safe place to talk about your feelings.

Vegas is battered.

uhh... slow down there, Cowboy, even I'm not picking the Royals to win the pennant. I think they have a shot to do it, and I'm calling them the slight AL Central favorite, but winning the ALCS?

Are you referring to their wins over/under?

The number was 79 last season.

The Tigers have extended Cabrera. Years and money not yet known. He'd be 33 in the first year of an extension.

edit: the AAV is at least $30MM, for at least 6 additional years. Not sure how many years yet.

It's 83 this year and I hope they can outperform it again. I'm just pointing out that I've read some outrageous shit before, but calling someone a battered fan for picking a Royals team to win 80 games is up there.

I'm okay with this. He's a stud, but they will be hampered by that contract at the tail end.

we're not vegas wiseguys or Cardinal fans, and even for pro gamblers the Royals line has been moving up since it first came out months ago.

The team on paper looks pretty good, and clearly better than last year. Detroit has clearly gotten worse. There's really no good reason for a putative Royals fan to pick 80 wins.

If Zimmer comes on strong, and looks fit for in June or July, will that change anyone's outlook on our rotation and total wins?

Completely disagree. I like this team and I'm excited for them, but we're going into this season hoping a lot of things will happen, and that's expected with a young team. There's nothing "battered" about picking a low 80's win total.

Monday needs to hurry the **** up. I feel so dirty for saying that too.

I made waves last winter when I claimed I would eat a bowl of my own sh*t if Sal Perez cracked 30 HR as Yost claimed was possible. (I don't know if he even ended up halfway there).


I will make the same offer this year. If we win the AL and go to the World Series, not only will I eat a bowl of my own sick. I will ask Duncan and Al North and every other long suffering Royals fan to chip in and make it a true bed-pan. I ain't even playin.

Cabreras deal is for 8 more years at 30 per. In total, Cabrera signed for 10 more years and 284 million. He turns 31 in April. Per Rosenthal tweet.


Holy ****



Edit: Looks like Rosenthal just spitting hypotheticals out based on his source saying its over 6 years. Even still though

The gauntlet has certainly been laid down

The team did not overachieve last season. A few individual players did better or worse than expected, but as a whole they did pretty much what was expected. On paper, they have gotten better and the division as a whole has gotten worse.

Again, there is no good reason for someone who calls themselves a Royals fan to predict a losing season. It obviously could happen because baseball is a very random game, but 80 wins is very low on the probability distribution.

Clearly better than last year? The rotation is worse and you really think the bullpen can pull off another year like last year?

We had the best ERA in the AL in 2013 for all the good that did us.

Our offensive improvement should easily cover any regression on defense or pitching, and then some.

The ****?

The Royals had a lot go right last year, namely strong rotation, very strong bullpen, great defense and relatively injury free. If we want to win the division, all those things need to happen again AND our offense must be improved. Lots of ifs.

Dude, don't expect the rest of us to play along just because you're into weird shit.

You are underestimating just how bad our offense was. We can take a lot of regression.

"Hey, everyone poop in a bowl and I'll eat it. Won't that be funny?"

ESPN is saying Miguel Cabrera's contract is 10 years, $300 million.

That's including the 2 years left on his current contract. Not sure if those salaries remain the same or not. It extends his contract another 8 seasons.

I see 10 292 total thru 2023 guaranteed. Their owner doesn't care, he'll be dead by then.

Dang dude calm down. It was a tongue in cheek joke which I thought was pretty obvious.

I think the best way to show what I'm thinking about the Royals is to actually post a couple probability distributions, where each box is 2.5%. This has both how I felt about the team before the 2013 season began, and how I feel now about 2014.

I didn't calculate anything, this is just how likely I think each win total roughly is based on my gut feel. (I could break it up more finely to smooth it out and also get the edge cases beyond the 95% interval, but I wanted to keep it simple)

http://i246.photobucket.com/albums/g...ps9a3b7b4f.jpg

Last year I picked 86, and thats where they hit. I believed there was some upside maybe to 90 or so, but I also felt that if things went bad, it could go drastically bad.

This year I think the range is narrower, its a better team and the upside is a little better (though I'm just not seeing 98+ even if everything goes right), but I think the floor is now a lot higher. This also means that a better team on paper could easily do worse than the 2013 squad just due to luck and we all know that, but this is how I'd quantify it.

LMAOLMAOLMAOLMAOLMAO

Just caught that.. Nice!

What makes you so sure the rotation will be worst? Will Vargas be worst than Santana? Most likely. Will Chen/Duffy/Ventura be better than Duffy/Davis/Mendoza? I think so.

People keep forgetting that Davis and Mendoza started 39 games last season. They combined for an ERA near 11. I am not so sure that on a whole our pitching won't be better. In games started by those two, the Royals went 15-24.

The Royals have shipped Patrick Schuster back to Arizona.

You have been putting out some really funny 1-liners lately brah.

Cabrera's extension is 8/248, 31 AAV. He'll be 40 in the last year of that contract.

edit: to clear any confusion, he's already under contract two more years. This extension is tacked onto the end of the current deal, which is why we have different numbers flying around for 8 or 10 years.

Hard to believe he's still only 30. Seems like he's been around for like 15 years already. Could be the best hitter ever.

In today's dollars that contract looks bad, but its hard to judge because the new national TV deal should be causing some inflation anyway. I think we'll know better in 2 or 3 years how expensive that contract is.

You're certainly risking hepatitis.

If thats the new market for a 33-year old Cabrera, then Mike Trout is going to be filthy rich when he hits free agency.

in 2003 the Royals were hitting the ball well

with 836 (4th in AL) runs total and 162 Home runs (7th)

pitching was mediocre with 867 runs allowed and a team ERA of 5.05 (12th among 14 AL teams)

in 2013 the Royals scored 646 runs (11th in AL) 112 home runs (15th in AL)
601 runs allowed with a team ERA of 3.45 (1st in AL)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Miguel Cabrera is highly respected/appreciated, but officials with other teams are appalled by Detroit decision to give him that many years.</p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/statuses/449333690674712576">March 27, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Haven&#39;t heard as much disgust over a contract from rival execs since the Jayson Werth contract. Industry is in shock over the Cabrera deal.</p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/statuses/449334107219431424">March 27, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Cabrera deal has two option years each worth $30MM. They are club options, but if Cabrera stays healthy they could vest and transform into player options.

HAHAHAHAHA, what?!? They might be on the hook for his age 41 and 42 seasons?

This contract is hilariously awful. The only explanation is the Tigers old eccentric billionaire does not expect to be alive in 10 years.

Jerry Dipoto is pissed.

He knows what's coming. There's no avoiding it.

Does a deal like this anger Scherzer even more?

If I was Cabrera's agent, an 8-year extension with 31 AAV plus 2 option years that can vest at 30 AAV would be my "shoot for the moon" initial high-ball offer to the Tigers that I'd never expect to get, and be prepared to negotiate down from.

I guess thats why I'm not an agent.

Imagine what the out of this world number was.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Nori took the boys out for some sushi tonight in Milwaukee! <a href="http://t.co/jbhSSEvZQj">pic.twitter.com/jbhSSEvZQj</a></p>&mdash; Eric Hosmer (@TheRealHos35) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRealHos35/statuses/449340808869576704">March 28, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Breaking News: Little Caesars now offering large cheese/pepperoni pizzas at $6. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MiguelCabreraExtension&amp;src=hash">#MiguelCabreraExtension</a></p>&mdash; Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRealJGuts/statuses/449319380816756736">March 27, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Another thing that has been mentioned but I'll say it again....no way in hell we can go two seasons in a row with as few injuries as we had in 2013. And **** me having one of our infielders go down and having Valencia or bum Gio have to play long stints.

We lead the league in 2013 is least days by players on the DL. Not a single MLB pitcher went on the DL once the season started. That's ****ing absurd and won't be repeated.

So we lead the AL in ERA and had the fewest injuries and still didn't make the playoffs? I'm not trying to be a downer but I just don't see how people can be so sure that we will match or exceed our 2013 win total.

Below are statistics to show the above facts about injuries.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-...ist-team-data/

It is a myth that we were injury free...Cain, Paulino, Duffy 's set backs.

[QUOTE=lewdog;10521595]Another thing that has been mentioned but I'll say it again....no way in hell we can go two seasons in a row with as few injuries as we had in 2013. And **** me having one of our infielders go down and having Valencia or bum Gio have to play long stints.

We lead the league in 2013 is least days by players on the DL. Not a single MLB pitcher went on the DL once the season started. That's ****ing absurd and won't be repeated.

So we lead the AL in ERA and had the fewest injuries and still didn't make the playoffs? I'm not trying to be a downer but I just don't see how people can be so sure that we will match or exceed our 2013 win total.

Below are statistics to show the above facts about injuries.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-...ist-team-data/[/QUOTE]

We're also really young, no? So that bodes well for injuries, or lack thereof.

As I thought earlier tonight.


This is just an awful deal for the Tigers in the end.

Dude, instead of eating a big shit sundae, I have a better idea. If this happens, you have to get an "Our Time" tattoo on your lower back or forearm. Your choice.

The rotation is worse at ONE spot. Probably.

Vargas will give them similar innings pitched as Santana. He likely posts an ERA at least .50 higher, but probably not more than 1.00 higher. The difference you're talking about if Vargas comes in at 3.75 is 12 runs... or pretty close to an extra run every 3rd start. It's not the huge gap it might seem like initially.

The Royals have a good shot to be BETTER in the 3 slot (Ventura vs. Guthrie).

The Royals will be better in the 4 slot (Guthrie vs. Mendoza+Chen).

The Royals will be better in the 5 slot (Chen all year vs. Davis+Chen+Duffy+Ventura).

I think people forget how bad the 39 starts KC got from Davis and Mendoza were.

They combined for a 5.42 ERA, 1.66 WHIP.

They gave up 29 percent of the runs surrendered by Royals starters in just 20 percent of the innings.

The hope is that although the pitching might be overall weaker, they will get better run support because the lineup is better.

all while Getz and Frenchy were in the lineup

So, who is not working/taking the day off Monday?

I'm glad to be off at 11am.

Unfortunately, I'll be working. :grr:

I'll be sure to follow along with the Royals GDT and gamecast.

Opening Day is the only religious holiday I observe. I'll be off work.

I get off work at 12:45 Monday.

I'm the same way with March Madness.

Did anyone else put some money on the Royals? I've got $250 on the over 82.5

Chen - I'm amazed at how much blood we have squeezed from that turnip.

Working Monday so I can have Friday off for the Home Opener.

That's our Vegas number? I'm surprised it's that high. I was guessing 80 or so. Of course, that's the number of wins I'm predicting so I'm probably seeing it through my eyes. 82.5 seems high.

They opened at 79.5 in Vegas.

You got that right, this guy has been incredibly solid for this team for years now.

Can't help but love this guy. I hope he sticks with the Royals after his playing days (as a coach in the organization somehow).

I'll be working from home tomorrow afternoon ;)

Bob McClure's greatest legacy in KC.

I still am confident Chen is replaced in the rotation by June/July, but even if he isn't ... still a major upgrade from Davis and Mendoza.

I think his point is that overall, our pitching is actually stronger. And I agree with him. There's a point when "anti-homerism" starts to cloud our judgment the other direction. As long as Chen only starts half the year and either Duffy or Zimmer supplement at some point, I think we're going to enjoy the results of this year's pitching staff. Next year, bring on Manaea....

That did not last very long. Its now at 82 in Vegas, and 82.5 on Bovada

If the Royals make the playoffs even once, and for sure if they make it without Shields, that will probably counter decades of losing and we'll snap out of it to be the typical, delusionally-optimistic fan base.

That's more sensible. If it really rose to 82.5, I guess I would find that surprising. What are the division predictions? I'd imagine:

Detroit 88
Cleveland 84
KC 80
White Sux 78
Minny 75?

Team - Current - Opened
Det - 89.5 - 89.5
KC - 82.5 - 79.5
Cle - 80.5 - 80
Chi - 75.5 - 77
Min - 70.5 - 71.5

I'm surprised Cleveland is so low... I expect them to be pretty damned good this year... I'd put them closer to 84 I think. KC has obviously been part of the betting strategy this year.

I think Cleveland is going to underperform. They had a great year last year and exceeded expectations...I just don't see them repeating that this year.

Cleveland had an unbelievably great year and will be hard-pressed to repeat. Their record against cellar dwellers was ridiculous. Their 1 run victories was also high. But Francona DOES seem to make brownies out of horse$hit

That's exactly my point.

The Royals are PROBABLY not as effective in the No. 2 spot in the rotation as in 2013. But they should be the same, basically, at the top, and better at 4 and 5.

There's also the potential to be MUCH better at the No. 3 spot than a year ago.

Bullpen likely takes a small step back but is still an elite unit.

Tito is a good manager. Cleveland will be a contender for the division crown.

http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/ar...650&h=433&q=85

http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/im...630&h=420&q=75

http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/ar...650&h=433&q=85

Here are some pictures of the MLB's new replay center for reviewed plays.