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xbarretx 01-03-2008 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldandslow
We'll agree to disagree then. I would argue that supply is much tighter than you indicate. Further, even if crude production is ongoing, we are talking about using trillions of barrels in a little over 150 years. It ain't being made at nowhere near that rate.

BTW just for giggles...

Year Cost (gas) Jan 1

1918 $0.25

1928 $0.21

1938 $0.19

1948 $0.27

1958 $0.31

1968 $0.35

1978 $0.84

1988 $1.02

1998 $1.17

2008 $3.06

Obviously the greatest leap in nearly 100 years was between 98 and 08 - The great depression only impacted gas by 2 cents (demand destruction). The 70's crisis more than doubled it. That caused a major recession (the Carter years) Now we are talking about tripling it. Ugh.

thus bring on the recession so all the speculators can lose oodles of money to write off in there taxes (assuming there subject to U.S. taxes) for the next few years. then life can return to normal :p

oldandslow 01-03-2008 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xbarretx
thus bring on the recession so all the speculators can lose oodles of money to write off in there taxes (assuming there subject to U.S. taxes) for the next few years.

You are giving far too much heed to speculators. China, India, and our ever-increasing demand are the culprits behind this particular moment in time.

xbarretx 01-03-2008 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldandslow
You are giving far too much heed to speculators. China, India, and our ever-increasing demand are the culprits behind this particular moment in time.


I agree and understand fully that those are developing thus consumption is increasing exponentially. What I do not agree with is the notion about supplies. Yeah the 70's doubled prices and there was gas lines actually shortages.....last time I checked there no lines at any gas station. that’s what i mean by speculation, the demand in other countries is rising, but there enough oil to go around for now at least. Gas and oil should be rising with demand but for the exponential raises were seeing, there should be mass shortages. its funny, people keep talking about shut downs and lack of refining capacity. Which I belief is true however, unless it gets to a point to where there isn’t enough product to sell the speculation is worthless as there obviously enough gas.

Yes I know I am crazy, but does that explain my POV?
And with all of this going on I would like to belief our country would be doing more to get us out of this mess. But as always, let’s wait till gas is 8+ before anything’s done and the economy comes to a screeching halt. Why? Because it’s a fact that Oil has long arms and that people in high places have deep pockets needing to be filled.

What people are betting on is that there will be shortages....however I got to side with the Donger, and again throw the BS card. That wont happen for quite some time and when it does we should of transitioned into a new form of energy (hopefully renewable)

Donger 01-03-2008 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldandslow
We'll agree to disagree then. I would argue that supply is much tighter than you indicate. Further, even if crude production is ongoing, we are talking about using trillions of barrels in a little over 150 years. It ain't being made at nowhere near that rate.

BTW just for giggles...

Year Cost (gas) Jan 1

1918 $0.25

1928 $0.21

1938 $0.19

1948 $0.27

1958 $0.31

1968 $0.35

1978 $0.84

1988 $1.02

1998 $1.17

2008 $3.06

Obviously the greatest leap in nearly 100 years was between 98 and 08 - The great depression only impacted gas by 2 cents (demand destruction). The 70's crisis more than doubled it. That caused a major recession (the Carter years) Now we are talking about tripling it. Ugh.

I don't dispute that PRESENT supply and demand are tight. I dispute the notion that it is tight because actual crude in the ground is running out. It isn't. As you point out, there is plenty left out there, but it becomes harder and more expensive to produce. If the economics make sense, it will be drilled and in the case of shale, "mined."

penguinz 01-03-2008 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xbarretx
i agree and understand fully that those are developing thus consumption is increasing exponentally. what i do not agree with is the notion about supplies.

yeah the 70's doubled prices and there was gas lines actualy shortages.....last time i checked there no :cuss: lines at any gas station. thats what i mean by speculation, the demand in other countries is rising, but there enough oil to go around for now at least. gas and oil should be rising with demand but for the exponental raises were seeing, there should be mass shortages. its funny, people keep talking about shut downs and lack of refining compacity. which i belief is true however, unless it gets to a point to where there isnt enough product to sell the speculation is worthless as there obviously enough gas.

yes i know im crazy, but does that explain my POV ?

and with all of this going on i would like to belief our country would be doing more to get us out of this mess. but as always, lets wait till gas is 8+ before anythings done and the economy comes to a screeching hault. why? b/c its a fact that Oil has long arms and that people in high places have deep pockets needing to be filled.

If you are going to debate a topic at least know how to spell, type and use proper grammar. I am pretty sure that I lost IQ points reading what you just posted.
:(

xbarretx 01-03-2008 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by penguinz
If you are going to debate a topic at least know how to spell, type and use proper grammar. I am pretty sure that I lost IQ points reading what you just posted.
:(

The typo's are due to typing fast in attempt not to lose my train of random thoughts. :o)


EDITED (proof reading is not my Forté)
I agree and understand fully that those are developing thus consumption is increasing exponentially. What I do not agree with is the notion about supplies. Yeah the 70's doubled prices and there was gas lines actually shortages.....last time I checked there no lines at any gas station. that’s what i mean by speculation, the demand in other countries is rising, but there enough oil to go around for now at least. Gas and oil should be rising with demand but for the exponential raises were seeing, there should be mass shortages. its funny, people keep talking about shut downs and lack of refining capacity. Which I belief is true however, unless it gets to a point to where there isn’t enough product to sell the speculation is worthless as there obviously enough gas.

Yes I know I am crazy, but does that explain my POV? With all of this going on I would like to belief our country would be doing more to get us out of this mess. But as always, let’s wait till gas is 8+ before anything’s done and the economy comes to a screeching halt. Why? Because it’s a fact that Oil has long arms and that people in high places have deep pockets needing to be filled.

Chiefmanwillcatch 01-04-2008 03:39 AM

Make all cars run on ethanol or biodiesel.

Make it law.

xbarretx 01-04-2008 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefmanwillgetyou
Make all cars run on ethanol or biodiesel.

Make it law.

While ethanol is renewable its not the most efficient fuel sub. it takes more energy to make a unit of energy from ethanol than gas. (i.e. farming the corn, transportation, logistical issues, etc.) If the U.S. wanted to be serious we would emulate Venezuela and make sugar ethanol.

as for bio diesel, that’s good right now but there will come a point when you cant get free used oil b/c there will be a large market for it.
im waiting for the fuel cell to be mainstream. That’s our real long term answer to kicking the oil addiction.

Personally i feel that strict laws are needed to get the ball rolling on this serious issue. However, opponents will say that its not economically viable to force such items. i disagree because a perfect example is Japanese car manufactures and U.S. manufactures. im sure (sorry to bring it up) Toyota spent a boat load on R & D for the Prius but that technology is paying dividends and thus U.S. is playing catch up b/c there responses are pathetic. Look, I made a hybrid SUV that get 20 something miles to the gallon and its priced thousands more than the regular model thus guaranteeing at least 7 years to recoup the cost in fuel savings. The technology is out there and laws need to be put into place :shake:

Donger 01-04-2008 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xbarretx
If the U.S. wanted to be serious we would emulate Venezuela and make sugar ethanol.

I think you are referring to Brazil. And, no, we don't have the requisite climate for growing massive amounts of sugar that would be needed to replace gasoline. In fact, even if we switched all of our corn production to provide ethanol, it still wouldn't be enough.

Ethanol is a good supplement, nothing more.

xbarretx 01-04-2008 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger
I think you are referring to Brazil. And, no, we don't have the requisite climate for growing massive amounts of sugar that would be needed to replace gasoline. In fact, even if we switched all of our corn production to provide ethanol, it still wouldn't be enough.

Ethanol is a good supplement, nothing more.

....Brazil? probably right, glad your keeping me honest Donger ;)

and i agree, ethanol isnt the answer. im sick of paying for it at the grocery store. Thus fuel cell is the answer. :thumb:

p.s., i think you missed my post when i called out your sig quote.

all you need is to have a picture of him wearing bunny slippers at the end of the movie ;) "its a moral imperative"

Donger 01-04-2008 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xbarretx
p.s., i think you missed my post when i called out your sig quote.

all you need is to have a picture of him wearing bunny slippers at the end of the movie ;) "its a moral imperative"

No, I didn't miss it.

xbarretx 01-04-2008 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger
No, I didn't miss it.

i bet only a handfull got that quote and i dont mean to toot my own horn but, TOOT TOOT :o)

Donger 01-04-2008 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xbarretx
i bet only a handfull got that quote and i dont mean to toot my own horn but, TOOT TOOT :o)

I believe you may be confused. The words in my sig were uttered by Severn Darden, who played Dr. Meredith in Real Genius, not Val Kilmer's character, Chris Knight.

However, both characters were shown wearing bunny slippers near the end of the film.

xbarretx 01-04-2008 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger
I believe you may be confused. The words in my sig were uttered by Severn Darden, who played Dr. Meredith in Real Genius, not Val Kilmer's character, Chris Knight.

However, both characters were shown wearing bunny slippers near the end of the film.

correct, the short bearded guy, the moral imperative was given by Val and the young kid (remember when there on the roof?) i was saying the moral imperative to toss another quote from the movie :)

regardless, its one of my favorite movies

Donger 02-29-2008 06:36 PM

National average price is $3.13 per gallon. $0.74/gallon higher than last year at this time.

The good news: gasoline inventories are 12 million barrels higher than this time last year and almost 8% above the 5-year average.

The bad news: crude is $40/barrel higher right now than last year at this time.

Expect national retail averages in the $3.50 to $3.75 range, with spot prices well above $4.00 in the usual locations, by March/April, IMO, unless crude drops significantly.

On the plus side, we dropped gasoline demand by 1.1% over the last four week period. That doesn't sound like much, but it is.


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