Just noticed I still have Cueto as my avatar. Will change.

Me to. I have spent an equal amount of time in my head rationally assuring myself(Ventura is a big game pitcher, we've scored a run off Price for every 2 innings we've faced him this year, weather and outdoors, home crowd)as I have convinced we're ****ed(Ventura has not been great this year, Price is always capable of CGSO, Cueto in game 7, Bautista and Encarnacion have to homer one of these days, stupid reverse 1985 curse).

I thought an off day would be good for my nerves but not so far. Thank God I have work in 20 mins to take my mind off for several hours

I just cannot see the Royals losing 2 in a row at home, esp. a Game 7.

Toronto looked like a much different team in K.C. compared to at home, expecting Ace to pitch a good game tomorrow and then let the bullpen come in and do it's thing.

For me it's pretty simple. If Price pitches 5 complete innings or less we win. If he gets into the seventh inning and beyond the game is very much in question.

A game 7 pitched by Johnny Cueto? While he was amazing in Game 5 of the ALDS, I certainly would be less than confident with him on the bump.

The first time a BJ throws a temper tantrum on a called strike 3 the crowd is going to go bananas on him. That should more than make up for any subconscious benefit with the umps from their whining. Also I would look for the umps to be a tiny bit more loose butthole on their strike zone after the Bautista pitch. I'd like to see the umps run one of them out of the game.

You guys just need to relax. We got this. Friday night party at the K in front of the home crowd.

World Series starts Tuesday night at the K.

Toronto has announced a game 7 starter (Strohman) and MLB has published game 7 boilerplate: Game 7

This is a complete bullshit number. Maybe slightly more relevant than pete's chart.

Ok

I totally agree.

This fangraphs % is pure bullshit. It doesn't mean shit.

Ok. What is the correct %?

I feel like we're somewhere between 60-65 to win this series at this point. I don't really care about past 3-1 series and outcomes and I really don't give a **** about fangraphs at this point. It's about the most overrated website of all-time approaching pro football focus levels of ineptitude.

I put us at 45% to win game 6 ... and 52% to win a game 7 as a poker player.

So we get 2 coin flips to their 1. That sums it up.

To be 64% to win the series we'd have to be 40/60 to win either game. Probability of A or B (win in either game) = pA+pB - (pA*pB) = .4+.4-.16 = .64. You really think we're 40/60 dogs in both games at home?

Ok. So this is all opinion.


Or....we can look at the betting markets. We are about +135 underdogs (43% chance to win) tomorrow which equates closely to your #. If we take your 52% for Game 7 and multiply by 43% we only get 27% chance for Toronto.


Ergo: by your own logic and by betting markets, we get FG numbers.