| KChiefs1 |
07-14-2016 09:18 PM |
*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***
Long but interesting read by Jon Heyman:
http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/ins...series-window/
Quote:
Heyman: Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ closing World Series window
The small-market Royals have beaten the odds to make two straight World Series, and win one, thanks to the leadership of superb GM Dayton Moore, an excellent plan based around defense and pitching (and especially bullpen) and a fine band of very nice, win-first players. But with a couple of their key core stars – notably Lorenzo Cain and most especially All-Star Game MVP Eric Hosmer, both free agents in a couple years — do the World Champions have an expiration date?
They’d love to have a chance to keep for the long-term Cain and particularly Hosmer, who comprise two-thirds of the middle of their relentless batting order, but the early signs are that that might not be so easy. Thanks to their stunning on-field success, the Royals’ revenues miraculously are said by sources to have risen to the middle of the pack. Yet, to keep their core intact might take quite an unexpected break, or two. And, in a sense, they might be a victim of their own success.
“Kansas City’s got a window of about this year and next,” one rival GM said. “It’s going to be a tough call which way to go.” (Some even think they might consider trading one of their key pieces a year before free agency to take advantage of a weak free-agent market next winter, and more to the point, get a start on a partial remake.)
It’s a call also complicated by the fact that their key players, a smarter-than-average lot, can start to see the window closing from here. The Royals are said to have had only preliminary talks with Cain, if that, with one person close to that situation saying only that K.C. “tip-toed” around numbers. And while they haven’t necessarily had formal talks with Hosmer, either, they’ve talked enough to understand where his camp stands, and there’s no sense there’s much optimism for a long deal — at least not yet.
Hosmer, absolutely loved by Royals higher-ups as a clutch leader and a very fine two-way player who has put up nice-though-not-crazy offensive numbers in a pitchers’ park but who may just be scratching the surface offensively, has two years to go before free agency. Consistent power is the only thing Hosmer hasn’t shown in spades, and there are signs this year; earlier, he hit two opposite-field homers off A.L. All-Star starter Chris Sale. Hosmer’s camp isn’t tipping their hand, but Royals brass, which stepped up with a $70-milllion deal for free agent pitcher Ian Kennedy and $72 million for another core star Alex Gordon, seems to have an idea Hosmer could be seeking $20-million plus per year on a 10-year deal.
American League's Eric Hosmer, of the Kansas City Royals, left, greets teammate Salvador Perez, of the Kansas City Royals, after hitting a solo home run against the National League during the second inning of the MLB baseball All-Star Game, Tuesday, July 12, 2016, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
American League’s Eric Hosmer, of the Kansas City Royals, left, greets teammate Salvador Perez, of the Kansas City Royals, after hitting a solo home run against the National League during the second inning of the MLB baseball All-Star Game, Tuesday, July 12, 2016, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Hosmer’s agent Scott Boras didn’t get into exact figures but did say, “The premium associated with 27-year-olds are very different than metrics associated with 32-year-olds, especially when it’s a widely known Gold Glove franchise-type player who also has the ability to perform at extremely high levels in big situations and on big stages. You’d have everything you’d want in a free agent Eric Hosmer.”
If Brandon Belt’s $75-million, five-year deal seemed at some point like a comp for Hosmer, even Royals people acknowledge that Hosmer has a significant edge on defense (no matter what the range number says this year) and gets bonus points for his dynamic clubhouse role, too. Hosmer is also only 26, and one rival GM brought up Jason Heyward as a comp, suggesting K.C.’s fears may be well founded, considering he got a $184-million deal. Another person mentioned that Jacoby Ellsbury got nearly $20 million a year in a prior market. These don’t seem like Kansas City numbers.
K.C. actually has run its payroll up to a respectable $130 million as it tries to make the best of its current window, so cheers to David Glass and the Walmart folks who run the team. The players are duly appreciative of the efforts of the front office, one of the best in the game. But it’s possible they can also start to see that window closing, through no fault of anyone’s in K.C. Mike Moustakas, Wade Davis and Edinson Volquez are more key players who can become free agents by ’18.
“The main thing, as a player, you want to be on a team that’s competitive,” Hosmer said Monday in San Diego. “That’s one thing we all look for. It’s special coming up with the same group. At the same time, the business side comes in at some point. As a player I’m not going to demand anything. I’m just going to enjoy my time there. And you never know. I might get a call from Scott. Things can change in the moment.”
Boras and the widely-respected, championship-delivering Royals GM seem to have a mutual admiration going over their love of the game, and Boras says he sympathizes with the Royals and their plight, which he believes is exacerbated by recent draft rules, which some say more harshly punish success, even success by a small-market club.
“The Royals are a prime example of why the draft rules that existed prior to 2011 work. They built their success by drafting players like Hosmer, Moustakas and so on down the line, which allowed them to build a tremendous playoff run through a three-, four-year period,” Boras said. “Now the new draft rules may prevent them from sustaining success. If you are successful in ’14, ’15 and ’16, the draft rules should allow you to be successful in ’17 and ’18. They’ve had $5-to-$6 million to spend on the draft, whereas the Cubs and Astros had $15 million or so.
“This shows why signing Hosmer is so important because they no longer have that draft vehicle,” Boras continued. “The Royals are a prime example of what great scouting and intellect can do, but they have been absolutely demolished by the new draft rules. That’s why free agency is absolutely paramount if they are going to have any success after 2018. Unless they sign free agents, in 2017 and ’18 they could have only a shadow of their strength.”
The Royals have unquestionably made a lot of right decisions at this point, and they haven’t been afraid to pay market price if they love a player (see Kennedy, whose deal shocked a few). Moore and Co. also have established a rapport with Boras (Moustakas, Christian Colon, Kendrys Morales also signed Royals deals as Boras clients), and ultimately maybe Hosmer will take less than market price to stay. But between the window and a possible $200-million-plus target, it looks like it may be a long shot from here.
Kansas City Royals
Royals people believe they have seriously missed Mike Moustakas’s win-at-all-costs play on the field … They think star closer Wade Davis will be back soon.
Chicago White Sox
Though they haven’t been linked in any way to him yet, one rival GM opined Jonathan Lucroy would fit for the White Sox. For now, anyway, they are probably more in the “limbo” category than the buying category. There are 11 teams in the A.L. .500 or better and they are near the bottom of that group … It was terrific how A.L. All-Star starter Chris Sale paid tribute to Tony Gwynn for helping him stopped chewing tobacco. Sale said he quit cold turkey the day the Padres great died. (Me: And it certainly hasn’t affected his performance.) … Good to see Jose Quintana get some national exposure. He is the unluckiest starter in baseball. For the fourth straight year, his run support is among the worst seven in the league (this year it’s the worst).
Cleveland Indians
Michael Brantley (shoulder) may not be far off. He’s taking batting practice, and said to be feeling good … In the meantime, Tyler Naquin has been winning over admirers. The former No. 1 pick has showed very good power. The Indians have quite an outfield of the future with also Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer and June draftee Will Benson, three more fine outfielders … Danny Salazar was given a pass for the All-Star game and said he wouldn’t start until game four or five out the break to be cautious, but that the elbow “is nothing bad.” He will make that start, he swore. “100 percent,” he added … Winning veterans Juan Uribe and Mike Napoli have been a cost-effective duo for the Tribe. It’s amazing how winning follows them around, especially Uribe … Isn’t it time time Sandy Alomar Jr. got a chance to manage somewhere?
Detroit Tigers
Here’s an interesting story on former Marlin (and ex-Tiger) Dontrelle Willis from Danny Knobler at Bleacher Report.
Minnesota Twins
There’s no sense around the Twins that GM Terry Ryan has any interest in stepping down, and people familiar with that situation note his great rapport with the club-owning Pohlads. They also think Ryan won’t want to leave them with a 95-loss season. Of course, Ryan is as close to the vest as it gets. And no one thought Ron Gardenhire was getting the ax until five minutes before he did … The Twins “can turn it around very quickly,” according to one Twins connected person. And that makes sense because they went south in quite a hurry. Don’t forget the Twins did win 83 games last year … The Twins finished up the first half with a 16-16 stretch, which is, let’s say, a lot better than they started. Ervin Santana and Tyler Duffey have been pitching deep into games, giving the bullpen needed rest. The return of Miguel Sano has also been big … Eduardo Nunez, a first-time All-Star, said, “I’d like to stay. I love it” in Minnesota. The difference for Nunez, he says, is playing time.
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*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***
(https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=299181)