Damn, no one took stats/probability, ever?
Question: how many targets does Skyy need to break the 1,000yd mark.
Working parameter: Skyy is the replacement for JuJu Smith Schuster, and must operate within that role, i.e., short-to-intermediate zones, between the numbers.
simple data:
250yds/22cth=
11.4yds/cth
1001 yds/11.4yds=87.8 catches, so
88 catches
.667y=88, solving for 'y.' Y=131.xxx, so
131 targets needed to reach 88 catches.
That's the lazy, imprecise way to do it. But it does get you in the ballpark. Anyone think there's a realistic chance that Skyy sees 130+ targets? When Toney needs at least 120 targets, and Rice needs, idk, 70? Ditto whichever Ross brother suits up, and James, and Watson . . . Trying to get Skyy 130 targets just doesn't add up.
But let's continue . . .
Now, above you posit the idea that Skyy
could average more than
11.4 yards/catch, and that he
could average better than
66.7% catch rate. Which sound reasonable in a bubble.
However, let's dive into that a bit.
For data, I'll give a couple three databases to work with. Use whatever ones you like, if these don't please you.
fantasypro advanced WR stats 2022:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php
pro-football-reference receiving stats 2022:
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...g_advanced.htm
pro football database:
https://www.footballdb.com/statistic...ng?sort=recavg
Go ahead and look at the WRs in the NFL that average 70%+ catch rates, AND exceed 1,000 yards. Just for fun. We'll get back to that later.
Now, you said
"If he gets 12.5 ypc, then he only needs 80 receptions to hit 1000."
Okay, let's break that down. in 2022, he averaged about 7.4 airyds/target, and about 4 yards YAC/r(eception). Now those two stats are slightly inflated, because he had a 30 yd reception and a 16 airyard target, and just 22 catches/33 targets total, so both of those numbers greatly skewed his final numbers, which is obvious when seeing that he averaged just 7.4 airyards/target. In other words, most of his routes were 7.4 yards or less.
But, let's cross-reference here and look at the WRs that consistently turn in seasons around those two numbers. How about just ONE yard higher and lower to give us a decent spread of 'similar' players?
So, at
8.5 yds/target Deandre Hopkins
8.2 CeeDee Lamb
8.1 A. Thielen
8.0 Brandon Aiyuk . . . you really believe that Skyy is better than these guys?
And what about around
7.4 to 7.0? Hunter Henry, 7.5, D. Smith and Keenan Allen 7.4, J. Chase at 7.0 . . . and Richie James comes in at 6.9. Anyone realistically think that Skyy belongs in that crowbetter than these guys in year 2 of his career?
And let's try to remember that the working parameter is between the numbers and mostly short-to-intermediate routes. So, Skyy isn't going to be running a lot of go-routes or sluggos, which would help boost his average yards/target. He's going to be catching most of his passes between 3 and 9 yards from the LoS. Which is why, even after having a couple targets beyond 15 yards, his air yards/target is still just 7.4.
Which is partly how I got to 10.1 yards/target. Because the first thing you have to do is subtract the outlier/anomalous data points, such as Skyy's 30 yard reception, as well as his lowest yard-catch, which was 1 or something. But that alone skews the results of that 7.4 yards/catch. And then there's his longest 'air yards/target,' which was 16 yards, iirc? That's gotta go as well as the least one, of course.
that drops his yards/catch to under 11.0 yards, and his air yards/target to just under 7.0, and then there's his YAC/r, which also drops after that one big catch/YAC play that went for 30 yards, goes away. Once those outliers are accounted for, his yds/tgt comes in at about 10.1 or 10.2.
And then we cross-reference to see if that holds up at all:
So you think that Skyy can go over 12.4 yards/catch. Okay, let's see what kind of WR operates in that air.
S. Diggs 13.2
Christian Kirk 13.2
Tyler Boyd 13.1
B. Aiyuk 13.0
CeeDee Lamb 12.7
Devonta Smith 12.6
H. Henry 12.4
T. Lockett 12.3
B. Cooks 12.3
Travis Kelce 12.2
J. Chase 12.0
Mark Andrews (TE) 11.6
DK Metkalf 11.6
Keenan Allen 11.4
So, probably not.
And btw, 66.7% catch rate/1000yds is high. It's also inflated by 0.3% (actual percentage is 66.667% for accuracy's sake) which equates to about 3 catches/6 targets, but I'll give you those gratis.
You say Skyy should be able to surpass 71% catch rate? Let's see who lives in that neighborhood.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 72.6%
Travis Kelce at 72.5%
T. Lockett 71.8%
T. Boyd 70.7%
S. Diggs 70.1%
Tyreek Hill 70.0%
D. Smith 69.9%
G. Kittle 69.8%
Justin Jefferson 69.6%
C.D. Lamb 68.6%
B. Aiyuk 68.4%
T. Higgins 67.9%
T. Higbee 66.7%
D. Hopkins 66.7%
And who's below 66.7%? Glad you asked.
How about J. Chase@ 64.9%? Adam Thielen, Mark Andrews, Terry McLaurin . . . all under 65% catch rates.
See, here's the thing you don't seem to understand.
As targets go up, catch rates tend to go down.
that's just basic probability/statistics. Don't believe me?
Let's cross-reference that with actual WRs that exceeded 1,000 yards in 2022, and ther catch%s.
Go ahead and click on that pfr link and click on the catch% column. Scroll down that list until you find your first 1,000 WR (as opposed to TE). That's Chris Godwin @ 73.2%.
EVERY OTHER
WR THAT CROSSED OVER 1,000 YARDS HAS A CATCH RATE LOWER THAN 67%.
And let's be clear: Skyy isn't Godwin. Or Amon-Ra, or Lockett, or Stefon Diggs, fcs.
Probability says that Skyy's 66.7% being based off of 22/33 is probably inflated slightly, not the other way around, due to the tiny size of the data sample. The same way Toney's catch rate is totally skewed (please don't be dumb enough to think Toney can exceed 82% for an entire season, lol).
So the idea that he'll have a higher catch rate is not very likely, and in fact it's far more likely that his catch rate will be less than 66.7% by season's end. I tried to shoot right down the middle and gave him a 65% catch rate. Which is still pretty high, but at least more realistic. And when I ran those numbers, he went over 150 targets, at which point I just stopped, because no way Skyy sees 150 targets in 2023.
Like I said, it's a nice idea in a bubble.
