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-   -   Royals 2011 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=240326)

gblowfish 12-07-2011 11:52 AM

The Royals have made their one trade for the year with the Melky to SF deal. They'll sit pat like they always do, and come up short by two starters to seriously compete this year.

Hope I'm wrong.

Nightfyre 12-07-2011 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 8177829)
So you wouldn't be willing to trade a prospect that may never amount to anything, and is at best projected as a .300 w\ 20 HR hitter for an already established and proven ace pitcher at the major league level that is reasonably affordable, young (hasn't turned 30 yet), and durrable?

I would.. in a heartbeat.

Who is this proven, durable, affordable young ace we could acquire with Myers?

alnorth 12-07-2011 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 8177829)
So you wouldn't be willing to trade a prospect that may never amount to anything, and is at best projected as a .300 w\ 20 HR hitter for an already established and proven ace pitcher at the major league level that is reasonably affordable, young (hasn't turned 30 yet), and durrable?

I would.. in a heartbeat.

Your assessment of his ceiling is rather pessimistic. (not the most likely outcome of the average career of 100 prospects identical to Hosmer, but his ceiling)

He had a significant hiccup in AA, but he went on to completely destroy the AFL. Estimates of his potential power vary extremely widely. Just about the only thing we know for sure that he can't do is run fast (for an outfielder, we're not talking Butler speed here). Before this last season, projections of his ceiling were insane, and his performance the last couple months have revived a lot of that.

I know that some (Soren Petro, who doesn't seem to like prospects, period) aren't high on him, but our front office is.

Fansy the Famous Bard 12-07-2011 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 8177864)
Who is this proven, durable, affordable young ace we could acquire with Myers?

It was in reference to the post saying he wouldn't trade Myers for anything. I certainly put Shields in the Ace category. You wouldn't?

Dr. Johnny Fever 12-07-2011 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish (Post 8177839)
The Royals have made their one trade for the year with the Melky to SF deal. They'll sit pat like they always do, and come up short by two starters to seriously compete this year.

Hope I'm wrong.

Would you rather they trade away talent like Myers, Hosmer, Moose, etc for a "big name" pitcher who will likely be great but weaken what is becoming a really good line-up full of young studs so they may have a better chance to win the division next year... or hold on to the core that we've drafted and developed and are now starting to see have success, and trust that Sanchez will be healthy and have his dominant stuff again... Chen will be Chen... Hochevar, Duffy and Paulino will continue to improve... and guys like Montgomery, Odorizzi, Teaford etc. can push them... and see (hopefully) serious improvement anyway?

(I know that's really wordy but you get it I bet)

Remember too that the core is very young... 4 of 5 infielders are going into their first full season as is 1 outfielder... and all of them have a lot of ability. So even with a "top flight" pitcher being added through trade at this point it still doesn't mean these guys are ready to seriously compete for the post season. It would be great if they can... but that's a LOT of inexperience to count on getting it in a years time.

I'd rather we stay the course with what we have and what we have yet to come up than part with young core guys right now... when most of those core guys still have a lot of growing to do. Let them mature. Then it makes more sense to me to make a bigger splash for pitching help IF more pitching help is then needed. However I also think we have enough pitching now to be significantly better.

Now if they could swing a deal for a front line starter while giving up only some minor league depth that may be another story.

Fansy the Famous Bard 12-07-2011 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 8177889)
Your assessment of his ceiling is rather pessimistic. (not the most likely outcome of the average career of 100 prospects identical to Hosmer, but his ceiling)

He had a significant hiccup in AA, but he went on to completely destroy the AFL. Estimates of his potential power vary extremely widely. Just about the only thing we know for sure that he can't do is run fast (for an outfielder, we're not talking Butler speed here). Before this last season, projections of his ceiling were insane, and his performance the last couple months have revived a lot of that.

I know that some (Soren Petro, who doesn't seem to like prospects, period) aren't high on him, but our front office is.

Prospects are nothing more than prospects. Especially prospects that don't perform well. His upside has been discussed many a time. He is more of a Billy Butler type hitter than anything else. But I would trade a Billy Butler for an ace pitcher like James Shields in our current situation, without question.

Fansy the Famous Bard 12-07-2011 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beer me (Post 8177910)
Would you rather they trade away talent like Myers, Hosmer, Moose, etc for a "big name" pitcher who will likely be great but weaken what is becoming a really good line-up full of young studs so they may have a better chance to win the division next year... or hold on to the core that we've drafted and developed and are now starting to see have success, and trust that Sanchez will be healthy and have his dominant stuff again... Chen will be Chen... Hochevar, Duffy and Paulino will continue to improve... and guys like Montgomery, Odorizzi, Teaford etc. can push them... and see (hopefully) serious improvement anyway?

(I know that's really wordy but you get it I bet)

Remember too that the core is very young... 4 of 5 infielders are going into their first full season as is 1 outfielder... and all of them have a lot of ability. So even with a "top flight" pitcher being added through trade at this point it still doesn't mean these guys are ready to seriously compete for the post season. It would be great if they can... but that's a LOT of inexperience to count on getting it in a years time.

I'd rather we stay the coarse with what we have and what we have yet to come up than part with young core guys right now... when most of those core guys still have a lot of growing to do. Let them mature. Then it makes more sense to me to make a bigger splash for pitching help IF more pitching help is then needed. However I also think we have enough pitching now to be significantly better.

Now if they could swing a deal for a front line starter while giving up only some minor league depth that may be another story.

The excitement over the young team is great, but you cannot bank on prospects panning out. Especially prospects that don't perform at mid-level minor leagues over the course of an entire season.

sedated 12-07-2011 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 8177908)
It was in reference to the post saying he wouldn't trade Myers for anything. I certainly put Shields in the Ace category. You wouldn't?

Shields would apparently take Myers, Soria, and then some.

But I've heard it implied that we could possibly get Gio Gonzalez for Myers straight-up. I'm just not sure I'd want to trade for an Oakland pitcher - they know their shit and there would have to be a reason they are shopping him.

Fansy the Famous Bard 12-07-2011 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated (Post 8177921)
Shields would apparently take Myers, Soria, and then some.

But I've heard it implied that we could possibly get Gio Gonzalez for Myers straight-up. I'm just not sure I'd want to trade for an Oakland pitcher - they know their shit and there would have to be a reason they are shopping him.

Oh I agree, I think it would take more to get Shields, cause he's a front line starter and worth way more than he's being paid. I was referring more to the "Don't trade Myers" Mantra. If you have that mentality, you're living in a future that may never exist.

Dr. Johnny Fever 12-07-2011 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 8177920)
The excitement over the young team is great, but you cannot bank on prospects panning out. Especially prospects that don't perform at mid-level minor leagues over the course of an entire season.

So we're talking one guy... Myers... who has already bounced back since. They reportedly aren't willing to part with him and I'm ok with that. Eye to the future is as important as eye on the present imo. The great thing is that Myers isn't rushed to get here. Frenchy is on for another 2 years... so if Myers pushes him out, great. Either way we'll have a more complete picture on him by the time he's ready otherwise.

I did say a trade using minor league depth is one I'd personally be ok with as oppossed to the young core already on the team.

MVChiefFan 12-07-2011 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 8177829)
So you wouldn't be willing to trade a prospect that may never amount to anything, and is at best projected as a .300 w\ 20 HR hitter for an already established and proven ace pitcher at the major league level that is reasonably affordable, young (hasn't turned 30 yet), and durrable?

I would.. in a heartbeat.

My point was that I think we have a loaded enough farm system that we can get a great pitcher and NOT have to give up Myers. Essentially, we can take the chance to wait and see if he's gonna be Ryan Braun or Bob Hamlin or something in between. Yeah, I mean, if the Mariners or Dodgers came calling about Myers for King Felix or Kershaw then heck yes I would trade him. But I don't see that happening and I think we could get some of these other names for less. I understand your thought process and I would like to have Shields, but not necessarily for Myers AND Soria.

Fansy the Famous Bard 12-07-2011 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beer me (Post 8177934)
So we're talking one guy... Myers... who has already bounced back since. They reportedly aren't willing to part with him and I'm ok with that. Eye to the future is as important as eye on the present imo. The great thing is that Myers isn't rushed to get here. Frenchy is on for another 2 years... so if Myers pushes him out, great. Either way we'll have a more complete picture on him by the time he's ready otherwise.

I did say a trade using minor league depth is one I'd personally be ok with as oppossed to the young core already on the team.

Yep, It is definitely important. But people overvalue prospects so much is sickening. Unfortunately the past 15 years of waiting for these prospects to all pan out has burned many of us old-farts complete out...

SAUTO 12-07-2011 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 8177944)
Yep, It is definitely important. But people overvalue prospects so much is sickening. Unfortunately the past 15 years of waiting for these prospects to all pan out has burned many of us old-farts complete out...

just take one look at all the guys we have brought up already...



that should make you trust in the FO to know what they have coming up.

Dr. Johnny Fever 12-07-2011 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 8177944)
Yep, It is definitely important. But people overvalue prospects so much is sickening. Unfortunately the past 15 years of waiting for these prospects to all pan out has burned many of us old-farts complete out...

I understand that. It has been frustrating. I THINK... I BELIEVE... this crop of prospects are different/better than what we've had in a long, long time... maybe ever. So I don't mind the team not wanting to let them go for anything less than exactly what they want. If it's all able to come together in the next few years it will be beautiful to see it happen with so much home grown talent.

I do agree that people often over value prospects. In our case RIGHT NOW I feel like it's not a bad thing to do though. Only time will tell.

Fansy the Famous Bard 12-07-2011 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO (Post 8177962)
just take one look at all the guys we have brought up already...



that should make you trust in the FO to know what they have coming up.

It's not the FO, it's the minor league player development that has done a 180 the past 3-4 years. I don't think these prospects were necessarily that much better than previous ones coming out of HS or College, it's that they are making it further through the system with more regular success.

That is the biggest difference that I can tell. Previously you would see guys drafted and then, ya you never hear about them again. It's encouraging to actually see something come up... But I still put much, much more stock into Major league talent than prospective Major league talent.


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