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86% is way too optimistic.
AND THE TIEBREAKERS AREN'T CALCULATED CORRECTLY!!!!!!!!! If I'm reading the table correctly, it still shows the Chiefs having a chance to win the WC, which they do not. |
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But step 1 is complete. When you bitchslap your whole division you're doing something right. You have to start and end there. Consistency, consistency, and then LEADERSHIP. They won on the road, at home, everywhere vs. the most difficult of opponents. No matter how good or bad the division is those are always the most unpredictable and difficult games. But after a huge win they'd play some NFCW dirtbag and lose. Or AFC cellar dweller and lose. Leadership. |
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This is far too optimistic. Lets assume the "chiefs win out" part of their 86% is about 75%. (I have no idea, just picking a number that looks good, I figure about 10% that the chiefs and chargers each lose only 1).
That implies the chiefs have about a 87% chance of winning each of their last two games. (square root of .75) I'd say the chiefs have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of winning out (75% per game), and maybe at best, theres a 10% chance of the chiefs and chargers each dropping exactly 1 game. The third possible playoff scenario is laughably unlikely. At best, being the wild-eyed chief homer I am, I'd say the chiefs have a 2/3 chance of making it. |
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