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-   -   Football Brady v. NFL: No Settlement; Judge Berman to Decide (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=294278)

Just Passin' By 08-31-2015 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 11696435)
IF Brady had just cooperated and not destroyed evidence, I'M absolutely positive Goodell would have lowered the suspension to maybe 2 games. This situation rests on Brady's shoulders more than the furer's shoulders IMHO.
Bullshit.

Amnorix 08-31-2015 04:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 11696487)

This chart is completely worthless. It doesn't track fumbles, but rather fumbles LOST. Because the lucky bounce of who gets a fumble really matters for purposes of seeing whether the ball was monkeyed with. Yeah...no.

It would be good to know if that stat is just counting offensive plays (where the Patriots controlled the ball) versus special teams plays (where they do not), but we have no idea.

It also doesn't seem to factor in fumbles at home (where McNally and the needle supposed lived) versus the road (where he did not, and where the Patriots have less control over their environment. More on this in a subsequent post.

Brock 08-31-2015 04:01 PM
I don't see how the judge has any reason to interfere in this dispute.

Dave Lane 08-31-2015 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 11696402)
I can. The NFLPA negotiated the current CBA and agreed to give the commissioner the power he has. He used that power, the NFLPA is now trying to argue against the CBA they agreed to.

IMO, he'll throw it out, maintaining Brady's suspension.
If there is no proof of any guilt can he just use his power willy nilly?

Amnorix 08-31-2015 04:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ (Post 11696543)
Those are dome teams you idiot.

Right, because dome teams clearly fumble less at home. Oh wait, except they don't. (You idiot).


Quote:
Teams generally fumble slightly more often at home than on the road because they get to run more plays at home than on the road. As for the cold weather in Foxborough playing a role, the following sample of home and road dome and bad-weather teams shows little rhyme or reason for home-road splits.
Home-road fumble splits for selected teams (2012-2014)

Team Conditions Home Fumbles Road Fumbles
Saints Dome 17 20
Falcons Dome 24 14
Colts Retractable Roof 36 21
Rams Dome 30 27
Browns Bad Weather 25 15
Bills Bad Weather 35 31
Packers Tundra 22 20
Patriots Bad Weather 21 20
NFL Average Varying 26.0 24.2
Football Outsiders

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...mble-advantage

Amnorix 08-31-2015 04:07 PM
Another point re fumble stats:

Quote:
Note One: Fumble totals are small.

The average offense fumbles 16.55 times per season, or just over once per game. Small numbers are statistically finicky in a number of ways. They are heavily distortion-prone, for example. The difference between the fourth-least fumble-prone team over the last three seasons (the Browns, with 41 fumbles) and the 20th (the Bears, with 50) is nine fumbles: an average of three per season. Imagine all of the factors that can affect a three-fumble-per-year swing—a third-string quarterback in the huddle, one or two extreme-weather games, a tough division, etc.—and you realize that you must treat the data gingerly.

So I can give you ONE good reason why the Patriots fumble less -- Tom Brady (other than 2008) basically never missed a snap, and he's amazingly elusive in the pocket. He rarely fumbles, and the Patriots are really good on the C-QB and QB-RB exchanges. The consistency of having him there alone help explain (partly) the low fumble rate.

Which is also reflected in Indy's good fumble rates in the chart above. It's less the DOME, and more the existence (and consistent ability to show up) of one PEYTON MANNING. Falcons and Ryan, and Saints/Brees, is similar. It also explains why the Jaguars, Vikings, and other great weather and/or Dome teams AREN'T on the list.

Amnorix 08-31-2015 04:10 PM
Wow, didn't know this:

Quote:
The January study looks damning: It shows the Patriots as a far-fringe statistical outlier. But the Sharp study has several problems. One of them has already been hinted at: Using "plays per fumble" as a metric mathematically magnifies tiny changes in very volatile data. But there is a much simpler problem: The Sharp study eliminated dome teams before collecting the data!

Eliminating dome teams compensates for any impact weather might have on fumble tendencies. It also eliminates the Saints, probably the most Patriots-like team of the last decade in every way except climate. The Saints have been contenders with stable, high-quality coaching and quarterback play for most of the last six seasons. Not coincidentally, their fumble rates have been lower than the Patriots' rates over the last three years.

The Falcons, another team with stable quarterback play and coaching for several recent seasons, are also chopped off the back of any study that eliminates dome teams. Assuming Lucas Oil Stadium is considered a dome because of its retractable roof, some signature Peyton Manning seasons were also excluded from the mix.

Such omissions would make sense if domed stadiums had a major impact on fumble totals. That is not the case, as one of the earlier tables illustrated. The Saints, notorious for massive home-road splits, fumbled 17 times at home in the last three years, 20 times on the road. The Falcons fumbled 24 times at home, 14 times on the road. The Lions, who mix dome home games with annual trips to places like Chicago and Green Bay, fumbled 31 times at home in the last three years, 28 times on the road. The Rams, who are likely to deal with extreme heat, damp conditions or nerve-racking crowd noise in NFC West road games, fumbled 30 times at home, 27 times on the road in the last three seasons.

Weather has, at most, a tiny impact on fumble totals. Sack rates and the presence of a backup quarterback in the lineup have much greater impact. Any attempt to isolate Tom Brady's fumble tendencies that excludes Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and several seasons of Peyton Manning is going to include some massive built-in distortions.

TEX 08-31-2015 04:12 PM
So sick of Tom Brady and the Patriots...

Amnorix 08-31-2015 04:15 PM
Last one.

Quote:
To get a sense of how all of these forces interact, compare the 2012 to 2014 Patriots to the 2012 to 2014 Bengals. The Patriots have had eight fewer fumbles than the Bengals in three seasons; the Bengals surrender 1.54 fumbles per 100 plays, near the middle of the pack and .35 fewer fumbles per 100 plays than the Patriots. Andy Dalton has started all 48 games in three years, though backups Bruce Gradkowski and Jason Campbell managed to squeeze in two fumbles in extremely limited playing time. Dalton is no Brady, but he holds on to the football. Bengals quarterbacks only suffered one fumble per seven sacks. The Bengals also protect Dalton well. He and his subs have suffered just 98 sacks in three seasons. Bengals quarterbacks only fumble 0.45 times per 100 plays, a lower rate than Brady and the Patriots.

The Bengals are a perennial playoff team that plays in a somewhat-cold-weather city in a cold-weather division. Their fumble rates are similar to the Patriots' rates because their quarterback is usually healthy and well protected. The eight-fumble difference in three years starts to shrink when you look at who is doing the fumbling.

The same thing happens when the Patriots are compared to the Ravens, who have an even lower fumble rate. It happens when the Patriots are compared to the Saints and Falcons, except that weather can be cited as a greater factor. It even happens in comparison to the Packers and Panthers, a pair of teams that have had to rely on backup quarterbacks in recent years but still have fumble rates comparable to the Patriots'. The Patriots' fumble rate is no outlier. It's part of a cluster of quality teams with stable quarterback situations. The Patriots just have more quality and stability than every other team of our generation.

Tombstone RJ 08-31-2015 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 11696708)
This chart is completely worthless. It doesn't track fumbles, but rather fumbles LOST. Because the lucky bounce of who gets a fumble really matters for purposes of seeing whether the ball was monkeyed with. Yeah...no.

It would be good to know if that stat is just counting offensive plays (where the Patriots controlled the ball) versus special teams plays (where they do not), but we have no idea.

It also doesn't seem to factor in fumbles at home (where McNally and the needle supposed lived) versus the road (where he did not, and where the Patriots have less control over their environment. More on this in a subsequent post.
wtf are you talking about? You have to fumble the ball to begin with in order to lose the ball by fumbling. The fact that the pats are the ONLY TEAM to play 50% of their games in Foxboro is enough evidence of something fishy going on.

Tombstone RJ 08-31-2015 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 11696717)
Right, because dome teams clearly fumble less at home. Oh wait, except they don't. (You idiot).




Home-road fumble splits for selected teams (2012-2014)

Team Conditions Home Fumbles Road Fumbles
Saints Dome 17 20
Falcons Dome 24 14
Colts Retractable Roof 36 21
Rams Dome 30 27
Browns Bad Weather 25 15
Bills Bad Weather 35 31
Packers Tundra 22 20
Patriots Bad Weather 21 20
NFL Average Varying 26.0 24.2
Football Outsiders

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...mble-advantage
That's a two year sample size. TWO YEARS.

Tombstone RJ 08-31-2015 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 11696752)
Wow, didn't know this:
Where is the link for this quote?

Tombstone RJ 08-31-2015 04:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 11696770)
Last one.
Where are you getting this info. from?

TEX 08-31-2015 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 11696735)
Another point re fumble stats:




So I can give you ONE good reason why the Patriots fumble less -- Tom Brady (other than 2008) basically never missed a snap, and he's amazingly elusive in the pocket. He rarely fumbles, and the Patriots are really good on the C-QB and QB-RB exchanges. The consistency of having him there alone help explain (partly) the low fumble rate.

Which is also reflected in Indy's good fumble rates in the chart above. It's less the DOME, and more the existence (and consistent ability to show up) of one PEYTON MANNING. Falcons and Ryan, and Saints/Brees, is similar. It also explains why the Jaguars, Vikings, and other great weather and/or Dome teams AREN'T on the list.
:facepalm:

Coochie liquor 08-31-2015 04:45 PM
I'm in Judge Bermans fantasy league, and he just drafted Brady. A sign??


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