Why does this kind of thing always happen to my teams?

Exactly.

So who has the better ROI potential?

QB, and it's not even close.

Since 1983, tackles drafted in the first round.
6
John Alt
Brian Jozwiak
Trezlle Jenkins
Victor Riley
John Tait
Branden Albert

Quarterbacks.
0

Offensive tackles drafted since 1993.
4

Playoff wins since 1993.
0

13 of the last 20, 8 of the last 10 #1 overalls were a QB

FWIW, in the last 20 years, 53% of QBs taken in the top 10 picks have made at least 1 pro bowl. Meanwhile, 73% of OTs have made one.

Yeah, I posted this last week.

You know an argument is built on sand when the Pro Bowl is mentioned.

AND BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE.

And 14 of the last 15 1st round QBs are starters. The only non-starter is Tim ****ing Tebow.

EDIT: Tim Tebow is the only non-starter. I'm not gonna waste my time looking at offensive tackles but I can tell you that at least one of them (Jason Smith) has now been cut by TWO TEAMS.

That's reeruned. But feel free to make a counter-argument that's not based on the pro bowl showing that QBs drafted early pan out at an equal rate as OTs.

In the last 20 years, 38% of QBs taken in the top 5 have had an overall winning record with the team that drafted them. For OTs, it's 21%.

Chris Williams of the Bears comes to mind. Andre Smith of the Bengals is now playing on the right side. Bulaga is playing on the right side. Carimi has sucked for the Bears.

And that's just off the top of my head.

How did you calculate that (or where did you get it)?

In the last 10 years, 33 OT's have been taken in R1, and have 2 SB wins among them.

In those 10 years, 31 QB's have been taken in R1, and have 6 SB wins among them.

There's a bunch more.

Bryant McKinnie is playing better but he's on his 2nd team. Eugene Monroe has been underwhelming. Michael Oher, who some considered one of the best LT prospects in years, has moved back and forth from left to right tackle. Jake Long is gonna hit the open market.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say drafting an OT #1 overall is WAY RISKIER than drafting a QB.

Here's all the positions:

LB 67%
CB 50%
QB 38%
RB 36%
OT 21%
DE 20%
DT 11%
WR 0%
S 0%
OG, OC (None drafted in top 5)

I made a large spreadsheet of all round 1 picks over the last 20 years, and looked at each player's time with their original team. 624 players.

This really is the end of the discussion. It all stops right here.

We should draft an outside passrusher, Milliner, or a QB. Period.

:clap:You have done more research than every writer at the KC star and most "draft gurus." Major Kudos.

Maybe mail that list to J. Dorsey, 1 Arrowhead Drive?

Great stats.

You'd better check your work then, because you got it wrong.

Yep, just realized I missed AJ Green. WR should be 10%.

Unless you meant something else?

The quarterbacks were easy to check so I checked them and your number is incorrect. The technically correct number is 46% (12/26). If you give credit to Eli Manning and Philip Rivers as if they were drafted by NYG and San Diego respectively, the number is 54% (14/26).

So I'm not sure what your spreadsheet is doing, but I don't have confidence in your results.

Why don't you list the QBs that had overall winning records with their original teams? Yes, I am counting Eli and Rivers.

That's a pretty shaky limb.

Drew Bledsoe 63-60
Kerry Collins 22-20
Steve McNair 76-55
Peyton Manning 141-67
Donovan McNabb 92-49-1
Mike Vick 38-28-1
Philip Rivers 70-42
Eli Manning 78-57
Alex Smith 38-36-1
Vince Young 31-19
Matt Ryan 56-22
Mark Sanchez 33-29
Robert Griffin III 9-6
Andrew Luck 11-5

Here are the guys with losing records:

Rick Mirer 20-31
Heath Shuler 4-9
Ryan Leaf 4-14
Tim Couch 22-37
Akili Smith 3-14
Joey Harrington 18-37
David Carr 22-53
Carson Palmer 46-51
JaMarcus Russell 7-18
Matt Stafford 17-28
Sam Bradford 15-26-1
Cam Newton 13-19

It's 1 team actually, but I get your point.

True, the Rams actually got something for him in a trade. ROFL at the Jets.

Double checking as well.

I got 14/26 as well. The 14 being:

Luck
Griffin
Sanchez
Ryan
V. Young
A. Smith
Eli Manning
Rivers
Vick
NcNabb
Peyton Manning
McNair
Collins
Bledsoe

EDIT: You posted this while I was typing.

The Panthers were 30-34 when Collins was on the team, Falcons were 47-48-1 with Vick, 49ers were 61-66-1 with Smith. You probably have starts, while I'm going by team record while they were on the roster, because starts don't work so well to compare guys like DTs.

Starts is all that matters. Why judge a guy when hes not playing?

Granted, it's probably not easy to come up with W/L record for linemen in starts, but I'm guessing the numbers aren't much different.

More QB's will have a winning record with their original teams than OT's.

OK, that could be the discrepancy. Yes, I'm using starts.

Because I'm trying to gauge the effect on the overall team. If your top 5 pick isn't playing, that's a problem that needs to be taken into account, whatever the reason. It shouldn't be glossed over.

Yep.

Fair enough.

As I said, it's not going to change anything. More QB's will have a winning record than OT's.

But not more pro bowl appearances.

You should go over to the NFLDC forum. They are absolutely lighting up some guy for using pro bowl appearances as a measuring stick...

So taking those three off the list, we'd be looking at 11/26 - or 42%

Not sure where you're getting 38%

But... um... I'm not sure what happened to Bledsoe. He kinda got jobbed somehow. Here's the updated list:

LB 67%
CB 50%
QB 42%
RB 46 %
OT 21%
DE 20%
DT 11%
WR 10%
S 0%

Yep. I was too slow posting my new list.

Because it's a ridiculous measuring stick.

The fans have a say in it, FFS. Guys 6-7 down the list get in due to injuries and SB appearances.

The Pro Bowl means NOTHING. It's a free trip to Hawaii, and nothing more.

Yep.

The LBs surprise me. Mainly because the majority of those guys weren't really pass rushers.

My guess is that they were complimentary pieces. That successful, winning teams picked them because they already had a proven core.

A lot of them went to good teams that had an uncharacteristic down year, I'd be willing to bet.

Like Jerrod Mayo.

Beat me to it.

Kind of a smaller sample size. I only counted 7 that went Top 5.

Plus, look at where those guys went, and who the QB was.

Von Miller - Manning
AJ Hawk - Favre, Rodgers
Kevin Hardy - Brunell

Trev Alberts only played 3 seasons, and they were pretty much a .500 team.

Mayo went 10th.

I think he claimed these were Top 5 at each position.

Donks didn't have Manning when they drafted Von.

Ah, yes.

Denver has a 21-11 record with Von Miller on the roster.

13 of those wins came with Manning at QB.

Yes. However, your post seemed to me that they had drafted Von when Manning was there. Must have misread it/not understood the post.

The 6 top 5 LBs with winning records were:

Von (still had a .500 record with Orton/Tebow, up from .250 the season before)
Kevin Hardy (Brunell)
Boulware (Testaverde)
Willie McGinest (Bledsoe)
Trev Alberts (Harbaugh)
AJ Hawk (Favre)

Most of these guys outlasted the QBs and kept winning, though.

The 3 top 5 LBs with losing records:

LaVar Arrington
Aaron Curry
Marvin Jones

That could be, but why is it not repeated with any other position?

No safety taken in the top 5 has ever had a winning record.

AJ Green is the only WR

Darrell Russell is the only DT

Peppers and Cedric Jones are the only DEs

For their career?
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Because the LBs are rare specimens for their position? Or they're "mortar" pieces rather than bricks?

WRs tend to get drafted as playmakers but are largely ineffective without a QB. I think teams overvalue WRs.

Defensive tackles are self explanatory. Teams view defensive tackles as foundational pieces and CONSTANTLY draft them too early. I've had many, many long discussions about the history of NFL defensive tackles. Quite frankly, I wouldn't EVER draft one in the top 15 picks and signing them in free agency is an exercise in futility. It's by far the worst position on the field when it comes to guys flaming out.

For their career with their original team.

Thanks and sorry for not keeping up
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I agree. DT may be the worst value early in the draft.

I just cant get over the LBs. With other positions, you can see the good players that just don't have enough of an effect on their team to win (Megatron, Fitzgerald, Suh, Mario Williams, Gonzo, Woodson, Champ, Orlando Pace, etc.), and bad players that get carried to wins (Ryan Sims had a winning record with KC).

With LBs, the good ones win, and the bad ones lose, with relatively few exceptions that I can see.

Maybe they're not complimentary pieces. Maybe we undervalue linebackers, or at least elite linebackers?

Good stuff. The very interesting part is that the quarterbacks tend to go to the worst teams and have to dig out of a hole from what is usually a bad first year. Linebackers tend to go lower in the draft.