I can’t believe people are in here giving up on an 8-4 team led by Reid and Mahomes.

You don’t deserve this run we’ve had.

You obviously haven't been a fan of KC for very long if you believe this.

Offensive DVOA is worth looking at but it has some serious flaws and one of the flaws explains why Chiefs offense is overrated this year by offense DVOA. It doesn't reward offenses and QB's who minimize penalties on offense.

Mahomes often holding the ball for a long time and rolling out has its major advantages...he is a little more likely to complete the ball and make pass completions and less likely to have to throw it away or toss up a 50/50 ball or throw into tight windows. He can also run for 25+ yards. But by holding the ball longer and leaving the pocket, he is more likely all things being equal -- and they often aren't -- to have his offensive lineman commit holding penalties or teammates commit other penalties on offense that DVOA ignores in its calculations.

And the Chiefs usually do a great job with their offense in avoiding silly penalties that are not somewhat forced by opponents but all things being equal, the Reid system is probably more likely to get penalties with all of the presnap motions.

Offensive DVOA also may not do a good enough job in all likelihood of rewarding teams with the ability to score in the red zone. Some teams have the personnel to do it rather consistently, others do not.

Seriously how the **** can Lane Johnson keep doing this but Jawaan Taylor can't?

He's still doing it and they aren't calling it!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We also see this on tape �� <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/tlw5OqMsOD">pic.twitter.com/tlw5OqMsOD</a> <a href="https://t.co/PzoRf86tvV">https://t.co/PzoRf86tvV</a></p>&mdash; ʟᴇᴇᴍ �� (@RunHurts) <a href="https://twitter.com/RunHurts/status/1732907613162025013?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Do you consider the Bills a top 5 offense? Because we're favored to beat them this weekend. Vegas sees this game as two evenly matched teams, with a slight edge to KC since we're at home.

DVOA
KC: 4 offense, 9 defense
BUF: 3 offense, 16 defense

Yards Per Game
KC: 8
BUF: 4

Points Per Game
KC: 11
BUF: 5

DVOA is much, much more predictive than YPG or PPG, which don't factor in strength of opponent or end-of-game situations.

I remember when Andy Reid put out the blueprint for neutralizing nic bosa. Let him charge up field then dump it off by him. That was such a good game last year.

I actually do consider the Bills a top 5 offense but I don't consider the Chiefs a top 5 offense. However, I'm not impressed by any defense that gives up 29 points to Mac Jones and the Patriots like Buffalo did. I doubt the Bills right now even have a top 20 defense so that is the Chiefs possible path to victory.

DVOA is better than YPG and PPG in isolation but its flaws are still big enough that I trust my eye test and common sense much more than it. Chiefs haven't had 4th best offense this year and the defense has been a little underrated so far by DVOA.

YPG can obviously be garbage since a team playing from behind against a prevent defense may rack up yard et cetera. Jameis Winston threw for over 5000 yards in 2019-20 but if in order to do that, he threw up 30 picks, chances are many of those picks are putting defense in awful position and not just 3rd down punts.

If a defense or special teams is literally scoring points or forcing a ton of turnovers, it obviously makes PPG even less meaningful if the quality of the oppenents are held constant.

Quality of opponents is tricky enough that even there DVOA can only do so much in truthfully capturing it. Injuries can make huge differences. Facing 49ers without their left tackle and without Deebo Samuel is a hell of a lot easier than when those 2 are playing. Vita Vea wasn't Aaron Donald but the Bucs defense with Vita Vea in the Bucs Super Bowl season was much better than defense without him. Chiefs offense did great in that first game not just because Bucs singled Hill but because Vea didn't even play.

Taylor hasn't been that bad (minus the penalties) but the Chiefs can get out from under the Taylor deal after next year. His cap hit this year is only $6 million. Yeah, we're stuck with him for next year at $24 mil., but then he can be cut and we can save $15 mil. against the cap in 2025 (there's a little dead money), so not even close to the worst FA signing in KC history.

The only 'impact' we'll feel from his deal is next year and then the Chiefs can move on if they so choose.

****. ****. ****.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Isiah Pacheco is again absent from practice field now as Chiefs complete their practice week. Looking more like he won&#39;t play against Bills on Sunday.</p>&mdash; Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) <a href="https://twitter.com/adamteicher/status/1733182562896433338?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

DVOA indirectly accounts for holding calls because it judges the success of each play based on down and distance. So a 2nd and 20 is treated differently than 2nd and 10. False starts and delay of game penalties are directly accounted for, on the other hand.

I'd say injuries are the big wild card with these advanced statistics. Those are basically impossible to account for.

Doubt Pacheco goes on Sunday. CEH needs to step up.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Did not spot Isiah Pacheco at practice for third straight day (shoulder). Andy Reid speaks to reporters in about an hour.</p>&mdash; Jesse Newell (@jessenewell) <a href="https://twitter.com/jessenewell/status/1733183040522727822?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I’m just confident. There’s zero teams on the AFC side that I think can beat us in a one off at Arrowhead. When the lights are the brightest. We’ve been there, done that…. Over and over. Season is a bit off, but it is with every team. Fluke wins/losses happen. We still have the best team in the AFC and probably the league. None of those teams are ready for playoff KC.

I totally understand what you’re saying though, and I don’t wanna leave. Don’t really want FallCaller to go either. But I’ll stick to my guns, as I’ve already said it.

the guys to worry about are kincaid & Shakir. Diggs going to get his but their new OC is spreading the ball around. Davis is their 5th option these days.

Thanks Diqlix!

Bills are getting Dawson Knox back from injury as well. Chiefs banged up, bills getting healthy.

You're right. Forgot about that stretch around the TEN game, my bad.

CEH is going to have a big game Sunday. Remember the game he had in Buffalo a couple years ago. Over 125 yards rushing. I can see something similar.

Rooting 4 KC (Chiefs)

LMAO, Sunday is going to be a lot of fun...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> are ruling out RB Isiah Pacheco, LB Drue Tranquill, DB Bryan Cook, and OT Donovan Smith for their game against the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bills?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bills</a>.</p>&mdash; Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) <a href="https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1733200020080357493?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

:shake:

That's not ideal

Shakir is a dog turd and Dawson Knox Jr doesn't scare anyone

This offense is ****ed now. They better use McKinnon alot

Lol his rookie year before the injuries? He's not the same guy

After our “injured” team beats Buffalololos “healthy” team. What will be their argument then?

Come on sausage ceh. We're counting on you.

How can you flip back and forth like this. All year its "GDT thread haters gonna look dumb" and "we got this, how dare you doubt" "Reidian run!"

Now you're giving up if they can't beat a .500 Bills team.

Because he's a bipolar little bitch

The same people were making Super Bowl plans a week ago. And they’ll resume Super Bowl planning if they beat Buffalo.

We haven't really seen them run a ton of screens this year. This feels like the game to break those out.

Buffalo has averaged 30+ points in the last two games, ever since they fired Ken Dorsey. They are fighting for a playoff spot and always play the Chiefs well. I'm expecting a tough game, especially without all our injured guys. Pacheco in particular has been our best offensive player this year and will be missed big time.

Having a healthy Allen & in line for the 13th pick shouldn't happen. If this goes the way of the Broncos and they drop down the draft boards(they can't draft but sure things either). It's still a win, just take awhile to see it

Ah look. Your garden variety gatekeeper of fandom telling you what you deserve, and don't deserve, based on nothing more than not surrendering fully to blind ****ing faith when you've got plenty of hard evidence over 12 games to tell you we got some real issues here.

Regular season record doesn't mean shit in post season. This Chiefs team has failed to score more than 20 points in half of its opportunities, and lost 4 of 6 of those.

A once incredibly stingy defense is now having issues getting off the field, resulting in fewer possessions for the putrid offense that doesn't seem capable of doing much more than auditioning for Benny Hill or the Keystone Cops.

Now, with injuries mounting, there's legitimate cause for concern.

If all it took was Reid and Mahomes, this shitshow wouldn't be taking place.

I don't like this...

<iframe src="https://gifer.com/embed/iCQ" width=480 height=198.000 frameBorder="0" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://gifer.com">via GIFER</a></p>

Lighten up Francis...

We all realize there is concern, but you went flat out defeatist... pathetic. Like Buffalo doesn't have injuries and issues... ****, they've been the poster child for team shitshows this year. Will we win, not sure, but I think we have a great chance. Oh, and Vegas still thinks so as well.

With Donovan Smith out, we are very thin at the Tackle position.

Would be nice to have Prince Tega Wanogho. I never heard if he ended up needing surgery but he's still on IR. Lucas Niang is our swing tackle right now with the injuries this season.

Been a homer all year. Consistently. Kept the faith. Never wavered.

The tide has changed.

This is going to be a almost a playoff game.

It's a must win for both teams and there are no excuses now not to lock in and play to win.

We will know a lot more about this team this week.

The signs have been there all season, so its no surprise we are where we are now. The Chiefs really have not had a galvanizing win all season. If they win this one, that changes.

really thought it was gonna be LAC and then we laid that damn egg in Denver

this is not our year if we lose this game

and that's OK

Crickets then???

Then please, drown yourself in it! Attention whoring 101

It's the 13th game of the season. Bitching about the quality of players and bitching about losing. Is burning the candle at both ends. I don't even

Please. We're having a discussion.

You won't see me polluting the GDT or starting woe is us threads about it. I'd rather not wallow in it.

We are down too many men.

it is pretty funny seeing all the people who bitch about how negative the game day threads get or start threads about losers and haters going 100% debbie downer before the game even starts.

IDK maybe they're hedging their bets so when the chiefs win they can pretend that they never had a doubt

at least wait until after the game to fire up the obituaries on the season

sorry

it's pretty hard to get excited about an offense that's about to give 40+ snaps to marquez valdez scantling, skyy moore, clyde edwards helaire, a rookie LT and a rookie WR

but at least the defense is missing two of their best players

mahomes, i guess?

Yep. But it really hasn't been our year, all year. Felt different since week 1. The "Reidian Run" never started. Win this one, and it could. Lose it, and they're just the 1st place team in a bad division.

But that in no way takes away from their recent accomplishments, nor should it interfere with future ones. Veach has shown that when we fail, he's straight up gangsta when he gets locked on to fixing a weakness!

We can recognize the team has warts without being a negative black hole of bitchassness.

****IN RIGHT

Weak... If we lose this game we most likely won't be the one seed, but we are making the playoffs and no one will want to play us. What a sad pre Mahomes defeatist attitude...

This team has to have the one seed.

The OL needs the home crowd, and so does the defense.

Right, I just don't get the outright defeatist... as I said before, it must be a self preservation defense mechanism so they start expecting the loss and it's easier to handle mentally for them if we lose on the road in the playoffs this year...

The road will be much easier if we are the one seed, but I don't think if Mahomes has to go on the road that we can't still win and Mahomes can douse the doubters in the Media, and defeatist fans like you, if they win.

If you don't think it's different this time....you haven't been paying attention.

I'll feel differently if they win.

Clayster, once promising a Reidian Run now unsure.

Hmm

Tried to put on a brave face.

But my tank is low.

And that's ok. Take the weekend off from Chiefs football and CP and regroup. We won't miss you.

I hope the Chiefs make it across the bridge of death this time.

https://y.yarn.co/266afa8b-2175-456b...ae2a4_text.gif

If Andy tries to force the running game with MEHHH… then no chance.

Ride or die with Mahomes’ arm this game.

A couple weeks into the season I was wearing my Mahomes jersey before the game walking near the beach and some guy shouted out, "Get Mahomes some help!".


Everyone that even casually follows football understands where we are.

In fairness, when has Andy *ever* tried to force the running game?

If anything, he abandons it too early.

I am just thinking back to the last game MEHHH started… vs Detroit… and the first two play calls were MEHHH runs.

WWE fan? Retirement match? How exciting!

Only not really. Let's examine this.

I've been here for almost 20 years. I don't post very often, but if I have something to say, I'll say it, especially if it chaps the little asses of homers like yourself that think the world is all sunshine and rainbows. Your narrow minded homer or hater mentality that you share with many other reeruns on this board is quite amusing to me, and making you little bitches squirm never ceases to bring a smile to my face. Imagine being so invested in something that you cannot stomach any criticism at all. Remarkable.

Still, I don't really post that much so it's not really a fair bet.

You've been here half as long, with nearly a 20k post count. Clearly posting here means a lot more to you, than it does to me.

Do you really want to have to spend your spare time you could have spent making posts gatekeeping the right to be a Chiefs fan listening to reggae while you punch the bed and scream into your pillow as you wife tries in vain to console you when these braindead brick handed receivers screw us out of a playoff game and now you csnt even vent on cp about how happy Wallcrawler the hater must be to be right?

I really don't think so.

As for my avatar, I haven't changed it since I started, and I'm not going to now.

Maybe you could get one of the like minded homers that have a moderator toolset (Bearcat for instance) and just talk him into changing my username without permission because I said something you disagreed with.

Thats more Chiefsplanet speed.

I admire the fact that you have so much faith in this dogshit offense. However, you simply cannot be so obtuse as to be completely oblivious as to why anyone would have trepidation about this year's crew on offense.

If the above "reboot of 2017" playoffs movie does happen, I'm not gonna be happy about it and it would take more than some homer who I've never had any interaction with until this particular menstrual outburst of yours having to leave forever to make me feel better about it.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> Marquez Valdes-Scantling... <a href="https://t.co/w1hDAQlXtk">pic.twitter.com/w1hDAQlXtk</a></p>&mdash; PJ Green (@PJGreenTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/PJGreenTV/status/1733214246891073845?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Some good news

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I&#39;m told the Chiefs plan to activate LB Nick Bolton before tomorrow afternoon&#39;s deadline, making him active against the Bills.<br><br>This will mark the first time Bolton has played since injuring his wrist in Week 7 against the Chargers</p>&mdash; Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattVerderame/status/1733248024766222485?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I&#39;m told the Chiefs plan to activate LB Nick Bolton before tomorrow afternoon&#39;s deadline, making him active against the Bills.<br><br>This will mark the first time Bolton has played since injuring his wrist in Week 7 against the Chargers</p>&mdash; Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattVerderame/status/1733248024766222485?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

ROFL

Good. Both of you need to chill. I pretty much told CL the same thing. Forever ban bets should not be part of different opinions from long time posters. I can't stand either one of you dipshits, :D but you both bring something to this place. So, BOTH OF YOU STAY PUT.


BTW, you're right, that would be such a Bearcat thing to do. His gatekeeper sky is always falling when it comes to calling others out like that. LMAO

No accountability on MVS part, what a ****ing disgrace. I don’t want him on the field at all ever again. I’d rather have Skyy out there than MVS

how?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GA3B20CW...name=4096x4096

Why? What do you mean? I really don't know what you're referring to? LMAO

Look up a couple of posts. I embed a video of MVS today

No Pacheco, injuries on D, and if Kelce isn't healthier than last week it's a loss.

Would not touch the spread either way.

Oh yes, I'm just being sarcastic, using MVS' own words that he told the reporter.

This says it all… loser with no self awareness/no desire to get better.

Probably not the only one in that shit WR room.

JFC…

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You’re better than this PJ. Fishing for whatever answer you were chasing is not the best form of journalism. I’m disappointed in your lack of understanding, and the lack of research and effort that you put into your questions with me today. So my demeanor was directed at you.</p>&mdash; Marquez V-S (@MVS__11) <a href="https://twitter.com/MVS__11/status/1733255343138848877?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Same thought here. No self awareness…
Just own it MVS! Damn!

2017, you keep going back to that. 2017, Brady and the Pats were still running the league (aside from losing the SB to Philly lmao). Now we’re the Pats. You’re making up scenarios in your head. Almost like you want them to happen so you can come here with your “told ya so” moment. Well,bad news. You’re not gonna get it. This team will turn it in when they have to, and we’ll be back in the AFCCG. Can’t believe after everything this team has shown us over the last 5 years, you’re still bitching and making up stuff that “could happen”.

Not how I’d want to be a fan, but hey… you do you. I’ll be here to remind you, you were a pussy ass, about an 8-4 team that has Patrick Mahomes.

And yeah, I knew you wouldn’t bet. Do you even believe what you type, or are you just trolling? Seems like an easy bet from your perspective.