Assuming guys return to form, that is a formidable front four of the rotation. You fill in the fifth and maybe sixth slot with a combo of Garcia, Cooney, Gonzalez and maybe Lyons here and there and all is good.

I agree. $200 million, just take the draft picks.

Yep, we have those 4 on the bench for the 5th starter and injury insurance. Reyes will be up in Sept to help in the bullpen. Reyes can take Waino's position as he ages. We just need to spend some money to get a front line starter. We got the money without killing us in the long term. Mo needs to pull the trigger.

$200 million is the new $125 million.

This is the same argument I've made with regard to everyone's "Look how much cap space the Chiefs will have in 2016!!" arguments. Everything with regard to revenue is relative.

Yes, the Cards are soon going to have more revenue - and so will everyone else. As a consequence, everything is more expensive. 10 years ago you could offer a player arbitration and the risk was that he'd accept and you'd end up with about a $10 million obligation. That obligation has now gone up to $15 million.

10 years ago good middle relievers were getting short deals for $1-2 million/season. Now Randy Choate can get 3 years guaranteed at $2.5 million.

Truthfully, I'm struggling to get my head around the new calculus as well, but you have to remember that even when the Cards new cable deal comes in, they're not going to be the Yankees. They'll still be right around 8-10 in revenue and thus total spending.

It's just that the total spending raw dollars will be much much higher. As such, maybe $200 million for Heyward isn't that crazy if you think he's really the best player on the market. I'll tell you this - getting into the FA SP market, OTOH, is absolutely ****ing insane. Nobody ever gets their money's worth from big money SPs entering the downside of their career.

I get that. More money in baseball. Salaries go up.
Having $20 million in dead money on the end of the contract like the pujols deal won't kill us anymore. It's just the new normal due to increased revenue in baseball.

We have to have another front line starter and the only way to acquire one is FA. We don't have a choice that I can see.

Here's a conversation I started with my Cardinals board:

Kevin Kiermaier is a name I can't quite get away from when I consider the possibility of paying Jason Heyward $200 million.

Kiermaier was the most electric, effective defensive OFer I saw in baseball this season. Even setting aside his range in CF, his arm is otherworldly. An OFer hit 100 mph with a throw from the OF 27 times this season - Kiermaier was responsible for 9 of those. He can steal a few bases and will probably hit you 10 to 12 HRs over a full season.

Is there any universe whereby you consider Kevin Kiermaier a $200 million player? The only distinction between him and Heyward I can see is that Heyward has better OBP skills as he's about twice as likely to take a walk as Heyward is. On the other hand, he's probably a better defender than Heyward and plays CF every day as opposed to Heyward that plays it only occasionally (and may not play it as well or for as long as Kiermaier could due to his build).

The other notable distinction is how people perceive Heyward vs. Kiermaier. People still view Heyward as what he could be and don't really want to acknowledge the fact that 3500 PAs into his career, this is almost certainly who he is. He probably isn't a 25 HR hitter; he probably will never be a truly prolific run producer. People harbor no such illusions about Kiermaier - he's an offensively limited player who provides his value through defense and baserunning.

Heyward brings a lot to this team - but are we sure we want to pay a premium just because of potential that he almost certainly won't reach? Or are we at a point now where Kevin Kiermaier is a $20 million/season AAV ballplayer?

I don't envy Mo right now. I think he's probably damned either way he goes here.

Arch City is reporting that the Cards and Braves and discussing a trade for Freddie Freeman. Said Braves are asking for pitching

Yeah, I was trying to wrap my head around that one a bit.

Freeman's deal is okay - $6/$110. He'd probably be worth about $135 on the open market so the deal only really has surplus value of about $25 million. Moreover, he's a bat-only 1b and those really shouldn't be all that hard to find, especially ones who are gap hitters and not premier power hitters.

Adams, Weaver and Marco would seem to be more than enough. In fact, it might not even take that much.

Yeah, that doesn't really seem like a significant upgrade over Adams/Piscotty. He is a high OBP guy, and relatively young, but his upside is pretty much what we see now. It certainly isn't anything I would give up a significant prospect for when the in house options seem comparable.

Yea but if they think they are out of getting J-Hey then could trade for freeman and go with an outfield of Matt H, Randall G, and Stepehn P. The. Take the money for Heyward and sign Price. How would that look?

Freeman makes a lot of sense. 12 million salary this year. Next year up 20 (which would be Holliday/Jay essentially) Doesn't block your young outfielders.

He's a MASSIVE upgrade on Adams and probably Piscotty.

He's not just an OBP guy like Adams, he's a gap to gap hitter that's capable of a .200 ISO. His HR numbers don't necessarily reflect it, but he's a much more dangerous hitter than Heyward.

Honestly, at that point the lineup is pretty formidable long-term. Piscotty, Grichuk, Heyward, Wong and Freeman would be your core 5 and they're all 26 or younger. Those are a bunch of complementary parts as well.

That's a move that makes a TON of sense if the finances work out.

But you know they are going to want one of Wacha/Martinez/Reyes in the deal. Wonder is some club will give the Braves that quality.

They can seek that all day, but they'll be circling back when all is said and done, IMO.

The market for a $100 million contract is going to be smaller than the market for a $50 million contract; it's just the reality of baseball's economics. And the market for an all-hit 1b is going to be smaller than the market for arguably the best defensive SS in baseball because guys that can hit are easier to find than guys that play premier defense at a defensively critical position.

They won't get as much for Freeman as they got for Simmons, IMO. All it takes is one team so I guess it's not impossible, but it seems damn unlikely to me that they'll get any sort of kings ransom for Freeman.

What do you think Mo would give up for Freeman?