There are a lot of QBs who have been carried to a playoff win or two by the roster around them. That doesn't necessarily mean the QB play was good.

You're wrong about what it would take to sway my opinion. It's sway-able. I know many don't agree with the amount of evidence I require to BELIEVE in Alex Smith as the Chiefs long-term QB, but I'm used to people thinking I require too much evidence to believe in something.

Half of the completions were screens or dump offs to Charles. Lets not crow about it like it was an all time great quarterback performance.

So his long term value should be based solely on 65 regular season games?

That's absurd, and certainly not the criteria that other QB's are judged by.

Peyton Manning takes a beating here for his playoff record.

Matt Ryan takes a beating here for his playoff record.

People thought Eli Manning was hot garbage until he went out, put a team on his back and won two Lombardi Trophies.

I guess I don't understand why AS should be held to a different standard, or why he can't be expected to raise his game like Eli and others (Flacco?) have done.

The goal is to win playoff games, which allows you to be compete for Championships. Winning regular season games is nice, but it doesn't mean much if you can't line up against playoff calliber teams/QB's and win in January.

This just reeks of a "well, he's not elite, so you can't expect much in January" type of post.

And if we can't expect much in January, then to me, he has no long term value.

Nobody has said anything like that.
It has been a steady high level of play on his part that has boosted confidence.

Beat me to it.

You haters talk about excuses yet you're full of them for when the Chiefs do well

Actually, that's exactly what Halfwit was implying - that "told you so" attitude because they guy threw 5 TD's without having 5 attempts more than 5 yards downfield.*

As if that "performance" proves any AS doubter "wrong".

*and before you think that's hyperbole, that's an actual stat I read yesterday.

LMAO

It sucks to have a QB that makes few mistakes and takes what the D is giving.

I don't think Alex is anything special, but some of you cannot wait for an opportunity to tear him down.

Damn bigpussycat stay getting burnt!

I can get behind this. Totally.
But like I said, his play IMO has earned him more than expecting him to fail, which it seems like his detractors do.

I think you are confusing "expecting" with "wait and see".

I guess there are always gonna be extremes each way.

Here's your problem - you're letting the emotion of this 10 month old argument cloud your judgement.

I don't think anyone expects him to fail, but at the same time, he hasn't proven that he can face an elite QB and/or defense and come out on top.

When he does, I think most concerns will disappear.

I said this to you and basically said yeah.
And went off about how he had been benched a bunch of times 6 years ago and pulled up all of his old stats as a reason why.
Now you are wait and see huh?
Ok.

That's part of the problem. Alex Smith DOESN'T always take what the defense is giving. Review of all-22 film over the past couple of years (and even early this year) has confirmed that. It is one of the biggest hurdles for Andy Reid in elevating Alex Smith's play.

Andy Reid wouldn't have had the talk about how "starting QBs have to throw the ball downfield" with Alex Smith over the bye week (that we heard the TV announcers talking about a few weeks ago, think it was either San Diego or Denver) if Alex Smith was truly taking what the D is giving.

Goddammit, I'm slow today.

Eli Manning is still the same quarterback he was before those Lombardi's. The fact that he's still going out there and slinging 25 ints a season only confirms that.

Judging a QB based on his post-season is a good way to end up overpaying badly for a QB. The best way to predict his future results will be based on his past performance and the most accurate measure of that past performance is going to come from the largest sample size you can get.

So yes, his regular season is not only more useful in determining how he will perform for the Chiefs over the life of a proposed extension, but it's FAR more useful.

You folks that are using playoff wins as predictive are doing it backwards. Wins don't make him a better QB, being a better QB yields him wins.

You keep trying to talk to me as though I'm someone that's ridden Peyton Manning's ass - don't. I'm not. If you're going to speak directly to my position, don't give me the positions of others to discredit it. Eli Manning's not a premier NFL quarterback - never has been, never will be. Joe Flacco isn't either. Tom Brady's not better than Peyton Manning. Matt Ryan is overrated, not because of his playoff record but just because he is. Philip Rivers is an excellent quarterback that I'd let lead my team in a heartbeat. Do I need to keep going?

Because I'm disinclined to answer to the inconsistencies of others. My position is a simple one - if you want to know how a player will perform prospectively, you need the largest sample size possible to determine it. Quarterbacks don't "raise their game" because if that was a switch they could flip, it would be on all the time - they just played a good game at the right time. Alex Smith didn't 'raise his game' against the Saints. Eli Manning didn't 'raise his game' against the Patriots. Joe Flacco didn't 'raise his game' against the Broncos. They simply had good games, just as they have had good games many times in the regular season. If Joe Flacco played 100 playoff games, his playoff numbers would be at best equal to his regular season numbers. Likewise with Eli. And if that's not the case, what's his excuse for not playing that well in the regular season?

Go ahead and take a peak at Flacco's career playoff numbers. He's a 56% passer with an 86.2 rating. Regular season? He's an 84.6% passer with a 60% completion rate. As you go through his numbers, they vaccilate back and forth with him having better numbers in some stats, worse in others. His TD-INT rate, for instance, skyrockets. But that's almost exclusively on the back of a single good stretch. Prior to 11-0 last season he had an 8-8 TD/INT. He didn't suddenly 'raise his game' in his 5th postseason after 4 post-seasons of electing not to, he simply got hot at the right time and small sample sizes suggest that's a trend.

I don't buy that quarterbacks are able to simply make themselves better in the playoffs. Great quarterbacks play very few bad games and as a consequence they have very few bad games in the playoffs and largely win them. They didn't raise their game - they're just great so they played that way. Given large enough sample sizes, these guys will 'play to the back of their baseball cards'.

Alex Smith will do the same. Regardless of his playoff performance this year, Alex Smith will be the same guy he's been for 1/2 a decade as an NFL starting QB. Don't get to high, don't get too low. He is who he is.

I haven't even been in this thread for months.

There is no emotion involved.

It has been a common theme that AS is not good enough to beat good teams or win in the POs. How is that not expecting failure?

This is where we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

QB's - hell, athletes in general - some handle the pressure of the postseason/big games better than others. Some rise to the occasion, some wilt in the heat of the moment.

Alex Smith has proven he can handle the pressure in a regular season game against mediocre competition, but he's yet to prove he can handle that pressure in a pressure filled, elimination scenario against elite competition.

Good post.

The concept, I guess, really comes down to Alex Smith proving he is a good enough QB to win playoff games. Whether that is "Elevating his play" or not, at the end of the day, the skeptics want to see the Alex Smith formula/experiment/whatever you want to call it result in playoff wins before jumping on board the train for a long-term extension/commitment.

Or at least see him play at a high level and lead the offense to a bunch of points in a losing effort. That would do it for me.

Just like a 24-17 playoff win in which the Chiefs score a defensive/ST TD and 10 points off of turnovers doesn't tell me anything I didn't already know.

I was speaking more specifically to Sunday more than anything.

Oakland couldn't cover JC, so Alex kept going to the well.

As to whether or not he can win a championship - that's where the transitive property works.

Smith's track record suggests that he's a slightly above average NFL quarterback. The track records of many Super Bowl champions prior to their championship seasons have suggested that they're slightly above average NFL quarterbacks.

If A=B and B=C than A=C.

I think a lot of QBs could've won NFL championships that ultimately didn't. Sometimes shit happens. I think a fair number of QBs 'couldn't win the big one!' up until they did.

Basing your determination on whether or not a QB is capable of winning a SB on nothing more than whether or not they have is again backwards logic. If you want to be predictive, you look to past results.

The past results of both Alex Smith and several SB winning QBs suggest that yes, Alex Smith can absolutely win a SB championship. Is he as likely to do so as Brady, Rodgers, Peyton or Brees? No, no he is not. Is he as likely to do so as Flacco? Yeah, he is. And you're going to get a hell of a lot more predictive results that way than the rear-view mirror approach many of you are espousing.

This.

DJ, please correct me if I've misread your stance, but it seems to me like you're saying that because AS has a 65 game track record of being good enough to win regular season games, that means he's good enough to win playoff games as well?

And the statistics over large numbers simply don't support this position.

You can believe it - it's a fun narrative. But statisticians have been hammering away at this in pretty much every sport for better than a decade. Given large numbers, guys play to their record.

Is it realistic to expect him to SUCCEED, given that he hasn't consistently demonstrated the ability to do either of those things over the majority of his career?

I think you are confusing "expect" with "want".

So are you expecting Alex to play to his ENTIRE record, or just the four year stretch you've cherry picked?

Colin Cowherd took some shots at the chiefs today. Said they were third in the conference behind Denver and Baltimore. Also said there is a reason the 49ers let go of Smith.

Good to see you.

That reminds me of an article, either on SI or foxsports yesterday, about Nick Foles, he said in essence "yeah, I've really been studying the greats lately, Brady, Brees, Manning and you learn so much, I've learned that if its 3rd and 12 and all that's really there is the 5 yard check down, that's what you go to".

I thought it was pretty relevant to the "all Alex does is check down" argument, and also speaks to what DJLN said today about people not valuing Alex' ability to protect the ball as a legitimate skill.

Not to say Alex doesn't make mistakes or miss the open guy occasionally, but it does say something about just how important protecting the ball is.

Yes.

And if he doesn't and plays poorly, I'll be damn disappointed in him.

But it won't change my belief on who he is as a quarterback. He doesn't suddenly become a below average QB to me. He merely becomes a slightly above average QB who had a bad game (as slightly above average QBs are more prone to doing) at the wrong time.

The difference in these guys is percentages. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are much more likely to get hot and stay hot for the 3-4 games they need to be hot for to win a championship. But Rodgers has had off games in the post-season. As has Brady. The odds favor them playing well, but they will have bad games. Like I said - there is no switch.

Smith's odds of having those bad games are simply higher. That's a reality that won't change based on what he does this January. With what was available to us that's the absolute best we could do and going forward we should continue to strive for guys that should be less likely to have one of those bad games. But right now we have a guy that's less likely than most and that's pretty damn not bad.

Look, I'm with you there. I thought he had a few good games early in the season, but got way too much credit for safe games where he came up short, the defense covered his ass, and he got credit for somehow managing the game. That's not the QB I want. And I agree he HAS to prove this against good defenses.

I am in complete disagreement with you on Denver game 2, and the standard you are setting for what is acceptable at QB. People ripped on him for his play against San Diego but have thankfully changed their tune. Against Denver at Arrowhead... look, we don't have an elite QB nor should we expect him to be. It is a ridiculous standard to expect your QB to not only be perfect, but also overcome mistakes from teammates repeatedly.

It is ridiculous to ask our defense to be lights out to support Alex Smith, but we should at least expect them to be passable. And when your defense is way less than perfect against a HOF QB, you can't have the massive amount of silly mistakes we saw against Denver in both games.

We have to stop setting the bar that we have to have a QB like Brees or Peyton Manning. I think Smith can certainly be an Eli or Flacco type QB, and the second half of the season, he has certainly played like it.

Behind Baltimore?

LMAO

Yes, behind Baltimore. I hate Cowherd

Been super busy at work.

And this place gets more dumb by the hour...

We don't trust our kicker enough to attempt 6 FG's a game...

I think expecting him to play to the 5 year stretch after a major arm surgery is appropriate, don't you?

That's how I tend to view teambuilding as well - a team can be completely turned over/around in 5 years. Viewing the NFL in 5-year blocks seems to be a pretty fair way to go about it.

If playoff wins don't mean anything, then Marty is the greatest coach in history. That's basically the same silly argument we are getting about Alex Smith.

I think the Bay area people secretly want Smith to fail so they feel justified.

There's something really important you glossed over in that quote:

...and all that's there is the 5 yard check down...


As Duncan mentioned earlier, and those of us that have access to the All-22 on NFL.com, along with those that attend the games have said - Smith is checking down when there IS something else there - potentially because he's scared to turn the ball over.

Andy sat him down over the bye week, and coincidentally, it hasn't been nearly as big of an issue. He still take the checkdown over open guys downfield, but not nearly as often as he was pre-bye week.

Tell me about it. About to take a break myself.

I don't think Smith played poorly against Denver in Kansas City. I think he played OK. About a "B" game. Nothing special.

Smith has the ability the be an Eli or Flacco as long as he continues to be more aggressive throwing the football to the intermediate and deep parts of the field (Like he did against the Broncos, against San Diego.)

Both Eli and Flacco have won playoff games and championships because they'll make the lower-percentage, more risky throws to move the chains and put points on the board that Smith's past has not shown he is willing to make.

This.

Cant speak for others, but i completely agree here... it IS about playoff wins, anyone saying different actually IS a dreaded "true fan".

I expect Alex to bring us playoff wins, not to mention that its an absolute certainty that that's what Reid and co. expect or they wouldn't even have him here... i think most peoples expectations aren't as far apart from yours as you think, the question is how much better regular season work does he have to do to make you confident he can actually do it.

The way Alex Smith played against Denver was an A performance for the kind of QB we should expect Alex Smith to be. Actually, an A- only because he couldn't close the final drive (even though I'd attribute that to playcalling).

When our defense gives up 35 points, our offense has 6 drops, and several drives are made way too difficult because of a dumb mistake... that's way too much to ask of your QB. The fact that we still ended up one pass away from tying the game at 35 is a very good game by QB standards.

And Alex Smith is making those chain moving throws since the bye week. I want to see that against a better defense, but he's doing it in ways I haven't seen him do it most of his career.

He has to win games against playoff-caliber competition.

He hasn't done that consistently and one could probably argue he's yet to do it at all here in KC.

Chiefs Planet- the only place our QB can have a PERFECT QB rating in a record setting win against the Faders and he still sucks-LOL

dumb

Sorry, missed this at the bottom of the page before flipping to the next one.

I've simply used an aggregate of his 5 years after the arm surgery and compiled them. It allows you to work development into the analysis while also not over-weighing a season like 2012, which was also an outlier.

Taking the sum totals/averages of a 5 year stretch lets you include the possibility that the guy got better while not completely discounting his down years. You also incorporate the outliers one way or the other.

It seems like a pretty fair way to do it.

Nobody said he sucks.

This is precisely what I was talking about when I said this place gets dumber by the hour.

Who the **** said that?

:spock:

Have you enjoyed this season at all?

Seems difficult to do if you're always waiting for the other shoe to drop.

It's dumber to think that he "ABSOLUTELY IS GOING TO FAIL" in the post season and yes people are saying he sucks.

http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/images/sports/...-cp-080907.jpg
http://prepsterpunk.com/wp-content/u...2/11/jesus.jpg

"Kind of QB we should expect him to be?" You're grading him on a curve.

You don't get an A if your unit disappears for half the game (like the Chiefs O did in the middle of that game - and only one of those drives ENDED because of drops).

You don't get an A when you score 28 points as a team, with 7 of them being special teams/defensive scores. And another 7 being put up on a 22-yard drive set up by your defense.

You don't get an A when you throw a bad pick on 1st and goal in the end zone.

Alex Smith was OK in that game. He did some nice things. That's what it isn't a C or lower. But an A performance? Too kind.

Holy Christ.

The guy is a starting NFL QB, a former 1st overall pick, and someone we gave up the equivalent of a mid-R1 pick to acquire - and we're supposed to temper expectations?

MOTHER****ER.

Too slow AGAIN.

I bet players and coaches would laugh their collective asses off if they read this stuff.

And right on cue, two more chime in with idiocy.

Don't pay $30,000 for an 02 Honda Civic and expect it to ride like a $30,000 car...

If you are expecting him to be Peyton Manning, then the standard you set is reerunedly high. There are 4 or 5 elite QBs in a lifetime, and getting those guys is a bit of a crapshoot.

Was that an Eli or Flacco like playoff performance? Apart from the last throw, yes, absolutely. The idea that a QB has to not just be perfect, but also overcome repeated players' mistakes... that's something Brady or Manning can do. I think Flacco, Eli, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan... lots of good QBs would not have pulled off that win, given all that. We were one throw away from tying the game in a game where our defense shit the bed, our receivers were disastrously bad, and we had dumb mistakes like McCluster pinning the ball on the 3. It's not a bad day.

I absolutely have enjoyed this season.

Alex Smith has dramatically exceeded my initial expectations.

Some people can't think logically. It always has to be tinged with emotion.

ROFL

Andy Reid agreed with most of us as of the bye week. Unless of course you think he was lying about what he told Smith...

You left out my last sentence that speaks to that, i didn't absolve him of all blame, he misses open shots just like any of them... but its good to see you recognize that he's definitely been going downfield more lately.

Whats honestly surprised me, is that when he does go downfield its more accurate and in a tighter spiral than what i expected when he signed... his arm is actually better than advertised, he just doesn't use it as often as some.

Axl doesn't do "the duck" very often from what i've seen.

We deify a lot of quarterbacks merely because we don't see their warts.

Flacco's played some horseshit games this year and lost. The Ravens are 2-5 on the road this year in large part because Flacco's been a lousy road QB this season (passer rating below 70, 56% passer, 8/11 TD-INT). Likewise with Ryan, Eli and Wilson. We don't see the times they don't come through because we don't watch them that closely.

As a consequence, we just operate under the assumption that they always come through and that when Smith doesn't "FLACCO WOULD'VE WON THAT GAME!!!"

It's nonsense.

You may be on to something here.....

Holy shitballs.

I don't expect him to be Peyton Manning but QB's get crucified around here for better performances than he put up in that game.

He gets treated with kid gloves, IMO, because he's been shitty the majority of his career, and because there's an arrowhead on his helmet.

Alex Smith > Matt Ryan

Who expects that?

Saying it was a grade B game because it was about 50/50 on good things/bad things is not expecting Peyton Manning. It's objectively grading him and accounting for the challenges Alex Smith failed in that game.

But he agreed with some of us that Alex was a good QB for the KC Chiefs and gave up 2 2nd rounders as his first move when he became HC.

And now you've just gone full reerun.

No, he's not been shitty the majority of his career. No, he does not get handled with kid gloves either. Shit, the majority opinion is the carping you're throwing out there.

Flacco, Eli Ryan and other QBs in a similar tier get treated with kid gloves by the likes of you solely because there's not an arrowhead on their helmets.

Which of course suggest that the truth lies somewhere in the MIDDLE, a place that doesn't exist on Chiefsplanet.

I haven't treated him with kid gloves. I was critical of a lot of games early in the season and the game at Denver.

But if people want to pick on his game against Denver at Arrowhead, then that's just being ridiculously critical. Again, Smith was one pass away from tying the game at 35 in spite of our shitty defense that couldn't keep Peyton off the field, in spite of our receivers dropping 6 passes, in spite of a drive made more difficult by a ridiculous grounding call. In spite of McCluster killing momentum and probably the drive by fielding a punt on the 3 yard line.

If you have Alex Smith or Eli or Flacco... you can't expect every other part of your team to completely suck balls and win playoff games. So yes, you are holding Alex Smith to a Peyton Manning standard.

I don't think those guys are treated differently because they're non-Chiefs. I think they're treated differently because they've proven things and done things Alex Smith hasn't.

He's been a competent QB for exactly 2.5 of his 8 seasons.

2011, half of 2012 (injury) and this season.

Amazing to me that you would even attempt to argue otherwise.

He absolutely has the arm strength to push the ball down field. You could see that in limited shots he took early on in the season.

That's what made it frustrating. You knew he had the ability to throw most passes, but just wouldn't do it. It isn't a Cassel situation where he's going to throw punts.

EXACTLY.

Bing
Bang
Boom

Absolutely.

This would be true if they were in the middle with their record, the truth is they are not .500 and some of us stated that mid-season should be a good indication of how good the offense can be. The QB play during the last 5 games has been stellar, if not for some crucial drops, and horrible secondary play, this team would be in first place.

I think we've actually reached a point where both sides basically agree now, but any criticism is heard as AS is the worst QB ever and any optimism is heard as we should never draft another QB. Causing an exaggerations of perceptions, purposed or not, and an over reaction to differing opinions.

That or CP has jumped the shark and everyone is just trolling each other...